Rassie willing to risk defeat for longer-term gain against ‘very dangerous’ Scotland

Given the experience and success of the current era of Springboks, every week seems to throw up another personal milestone. And this week is no different as coach Rassie Erasmus celebrates a record 55th Test at the helm.

Naturally, that won’t be at the forefront of his mind when the Boks take on Scotland at Loftus – there will be far more pressing matters.

Scotland have gone with a 6/2 split between forwards and backs in an attempt to defuse the Bomb Squad, and mercurial flyhalf Finn Russell is back to pull the strings.

Russell is no doubt a brilliant player, but he has never been in a winning Test team against the Boks, which includes a single outing in the third Test for the 2021 British & Irish Lions in Cape Town.

Still, his presence adds to Scotland’s firepower out wide with captain and inside centre Sione Tuipulotu and wing Kyle Steyn offering great skill and form to create some problems for the home team.

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So, Erasmus will have spent almost zero time this week pondering his record, his 76% winning ratio in the previous 54 Tests, his two World Cup titles (one as director of rugby), back-to-back Rugby Championship titles, a record 43-10 victory over the All Blacks and a current nine match-winning streak.

Changed Boks

That’s simply because the Boks’ always look forward. They mark occasions – such as Damian Willemse and Cheslin Kolbe’s 50th Tests last week with a commemorative jersey and quiet beer – before moving on to the next thing.

“When players reach milestones we don’t talk about it in the build-up to matches and the same applies this week,” Eramus said.

“It’s a nice thing to know but the most important and only thing this week is performing against a very dangerous Scotland team.”

It’s obvious Erasmus’ thoughts are both present and distant. He has a plan for Scotland, which won’t veer far from the established blueprint of forward dominance, aerial supremacy, a set piece stranglehold and red zone effectiveness.

But he also has one eye on Rugby World Cup 2027 and players that must have a chance to make a claim for one of the 31 spots to Australia next year.

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Which is why the likes of No 8 Evan Roos, hooker Johan Grobbelaar, lock Cobus Wiese, openside flank Paul de Villiers, scrumhalf Embrose Papier and utility back Quan Horn are all included this weekend.

The easiest thing in the world would have been to select all his stalwarts for this match, but Erasmus has never been risk averse.

He knows that by selecting a team with 10 changes from the side that beat England 45-21 last weekend, and including callow players such as Horn, De Villiers, Wiese, Roos, lock Vincent Tshituka and props Ntuthuko Mchunu and Zach Porthen, there is a chance it might blow up in his face.

Starting pack

Last week’s starting team had 935 Test caps, this weekend’s starting XV has only 445 caps – less than half. The starting pack this week only has a combined 171 Test caps, 96 of which belong to Bok skipper Pieter-Steph du Toit.

There are also new combinations in the back row and back three, but among the Test inexperience there are also some well-forged partnerships.

The front row of Wilco Louw, Grobbelaar and Boan Venter have been in the Bok squad for more than two years now. Louw and Grobbelaar are Bulls veterans, playing on home turf.

Willemse is in the No 12 jersey for only the second time in a Test, where he will combine with Jesse Kriel, but he has often played in the midfield channel on second or third phase.

Papier played the last of his seven Tests in November 2018, but he has a vast body of work under his belt at club level.

To ease his return to Test rugby after a 2,786-day hiatus, Papier will start alongside Bulls teammate Handrè Pollard as a halfback pair. The duo functioned at a high level during the United Rugby Championship (URC) and Papier is also familiar with Loftus.

Those factors will help soften his return to the Test fold.

De Villiers, who was a late call-up last week against England, performed well on debut, winning a first-minute breakdown penalty that led to the Boks’ opening try. His battle with Scotland openside Rory Darge will be a key battleground.

“They have some outstanding players there, in particular, Paul de Villiers. I saw him going after the ball against England and really slowing down the ball and disrupting it,” Darge said.

“It’s definitely a challenge, and they’ve got a mindset across their team to disrupt the ball. We just have to do what we can to stop them.”

‘Greatest challenge’

Scotland coach Gregor Townsend called a spade a spade in the build-up, admitting that taking on the Boks at home was currently the biggest challenge in rugby. It’s not hyperbole. The Boks are formidable as they seek a 10th straight Test win and a sweep of all the major Test playing nations in the past 12 months.

“From our perspective, no one in our group has played South Africa for Scotland away from home,” Townsend said this week.

“It’s a unique opportunity for us, obviously the biggest challenge in world rugby.”

Townsend’s team at least arrived with confidence, after a superb 48-37 win over Argentina in Córdoba last week. The Boks know how difficult it is to win in Argentina, so they have been served notice of Scotland’s potential.

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Another factor that will have raised Scotland’s hopes is the make-up of the Bok side, which is a bit of a mix-and-match squad.

Not having to face the likes of Kolbe, Eben Etzebeth, Lood de Jager, RG Snyman, Siya Kolisi, Jasper Wiese, Damian de Allende, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Malcolm Marx, Ox Nché, Thomas du Toit and Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu must give Scotland some confidence.

Scotland clearly believe that their bench and the callow Bok bench, might for once, be an area of relative weakness for the home team.

“We feel that our bench is going to bring energy,” Townsend said.

“It’s two physical backline players, but it’s more about the six forwards.

“We know that the forwards are going to be the ones that are really going to be tested this week against the best pack in world rugby.” DM

Teams:

South Africa: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Edwill van der Merwe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian Willemse, 11 Canan Moodie, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Embrose Papier, 8 Evan Roos, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit (captain), 6 Paul de Villiers, 5 Ruan Nortjé, 4 Cobus Wiese, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Boan Venter.
Reserves: 16 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17 Ntuthuko Mchunu, 18 Zach Porthen, 19 Ben-Jason Dixon, 20 Vincent Tshituka, 21 Elrigh Louw, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Quan Horn.

Scotland: 15 Kyle Rowe, 14 Kyle Steyn, 13 Rory Hutchinson, 12 Sione Tuipulotu (captain), 11 Jamie Dobie, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ben White, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Rory Darge, 6 Matt Fagerson, 5 Scott Cummings, 4 Gregor Brown, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Ewan Ashman, 1 Pierre Schoeman.
Reserves: 16 Gregor Hiddleston, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Will Hurd, 19 Alex Samuel, 20 Josh Bayliss, 21 Magnus Bradbury, 22 Tom Jordan, 23 Stafford McDowall.

Date: 11 July
Venue: Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
Kick-off: 5.40pm (SuperSport))
Referee: Pierre Brousset (France)
Assistant referees: James Doleman (NZ) & Andrew Brace (Ireland)
TMO: Richard Kelly (New Zealand)