US swings to Trump and Republican Congress — how it’s playing out and what happens next

By the end of America’s election day on 5 November, close to 200 million people had voted in person, by advance ballots beforehand, and through mail-in ballots. The final totals are still being calculated – and, depending on each state, mail-in ballots will still be counted as long as they are postmarked by election day or a day or two later. Most of the media (except Fox News) have not yet declared the election won by Donald Trump, but he has now declared victory.

Trump declared: “God spared my life for a reason. That reason was to save our country and to restore America to greatness, and now we are going to fulfil that mission.”

Read more: Donald Trump claims victory as broad shift in support for him emerges across the US

Most key districts in the seven swing states appear to have gone convincingly to Trump. This means voters in crucial places like Bucks County in Pennsylvania had supported him, meaning that state’s electoral votes were now in the former president’s column – bringing Trump to claim victory. Trump is only the second American president to win re-election after first being defeated in a re-election bid (Grover Cleveland achieved that feat at the end of the 19th century.)

Despite still incomplete results, Trump as president-elect and his team will begin a transition process towards putting in place a new administration that will take office on 20 January 2025. 

There may be a few court challenges over some state results, most likely over whether or not an ineligible person or two voted, or whether there were administrative or procedural errors in the process of counting the votes, but these will not change the result. Given the experience of the 2020 election, in the years in between the states had all upped their respective games in managing the security of the nation’s electoral process. South Africans should recall American elections are run by the individual states, rather than a national electoral commission.

Besides the presidential choice, the entire House of Representatives, one-third of the Senate, and hundreds and hundreds of state and local positions were also up for election. It is still too early to ascertain for certain how successful the Republicans have been but it is increasingly certain they will control both houses of Congress. In addition, an important feature this year has been referendums in 10 states over restraining those states from imposing limitations on women’s reproductive rights, including  access to legal abortions. 

Proposals for significant changes to the nation’s tax structures or for new programmes and expenditures will be debated strenuously before they are adopted. With a Republican Congress in place, it could put the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (its legislated existence expires in 2025), the Pepfar programme dealing with HIV/Aids, and a number of other foreign assistance projects at risk of being restricted or even ended. South Africans would feel the pinch of such decisions.

In the initial analysis, the most consequential issues in this election included promises to restrict and manage immigration and deport many illegal immigrants; and the circumstances of the economy and voter discontent over crucial “kitchen table” issues and a promise to enact punishing tariffs against foreign nations – especially China. 

Read more: Rand tanks as Trump poised to return to White House

Read more: US election analysis and live updates

Ultimately, Kamala Harris’s campaigning to protect women’s reproductive rights, and a vigorous defence of democratic values turned out to be much less salient to a majority of voters. Typically, foreign policy issues such as further military aid to Ukraine or Israel or even measures to address global climate concerns were seen by most voters to be of lesser importance than those other issues. 

The Trump argument was that the Biden administration – which his opponent obviously was a part of – had failed to solve the economic and immigration crises, while Harris argued that the Biden administration had delivered strongly in its support for the economy, after Covid, and that her administration would expand on what she termed the creation of an “opportunity society”. In the end, Trump’s arguments carried much more weight than Harris’s with key sectors of the electorate.

As far as Africa, and South Africa specifically, is concerned, the continent was barely mentioned throughout the campaign by the two candidates. In fact, foreign affairs issues were barely mentioned by either, although Trump insisted he would easily be able to end both the Ukrainian war and the Middle East conflicts, and that the Chinese challenge to American industry would be solved by punitive tariffs enacted against Chinese (and other) imports. 

Harris had argued that America’s foreign policy goals could best be achieved via close cooperation and coordination with the country’s allies and she reiterated continuing support for Israel’s right to defend itself, but called for increased attention to the continuing plight of Palestinians as part of her foreign policy agenda. 

Trump has insisted his support for Israel and its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was unwavering and this victory will inevitably provoke deep recalibration and some sombre thinking in Tehran and other capitals in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians and allies in Europe are now left to contemplate in a kind of state of shock over what the future will hold in Ukraine’s desperate effort to forestall a Russia victory.

At the beginning of January, once the new Congress has been sworn in, the respective official lists of electors (and thus which candidate they supported) will be opened before the vice-president in a joint sitting of the two houses and the next president is formally proclaimed. DM

Update at 12.50pm on 6 November: Trump has been confirmed as US's new president, with the New York Times online publication headlined: Trump storms back  - Stunning return to power after dark and defiant campaign.