South Africa

ANALYSIS

Ramaphosa’s load shedding populism – a cheap, short-term political move that will hurt South Africa

Ramaphosa’s load shedding populism – a cheap, short-term political move that will hurt South Africa
Illustrative image | President Cyril Ramaphosa. (Photo: Leon Sadiki / Bloomberg via Getty Images) | An Eskom coal-fired power station in Mpumalanga, South Africa. (Photo: Waldo Swiegers / Bloomberg via Getty Images)

President Ramaphosa’s call appears motivated by simple populism and the realisation that rolling blackouts could cost the ANC a previously unimaginably large number of votes in the general election just 18 months away.

With the “no end to load shedding for the next two years” refrain now well etched on our collective brains, the politics around it keeps reaching new levels of intensity. Not only is President Cyril Ramaphosa under intense pressure to take action (possibly including a Cabinet reshuffle), but he himself has joined the chorus of demands for Eskom to suspend its tariff increase.

This request may be taking us into new territory, where a President, seeking a short-term gain, is willing to publicly change the outcome of a regulatory process despite the long-term repercussions. It is also a sign of how Ramaphosa and the ANC are now feeling the heat of the pressure that’s been created by the widespread and deep dissatisfaction with the ruling party’s performance. Ramaphosa could well risk the credibility of our entire system of governance or at least the shreds that are still there, just for the problem to go away temporarily.

On Sunday evening, Ramaphosa addressed delegates at the ANC’s Free State conference. There, he said that he had asked Eskom to suspend its plan to implement the power price increase: “I have personally said to Eskom, ‘Eskom, it will be an injury to our people if we implement the 18% now when we are going through load shedding. Put it in suspense for a while’.” 

Power crisis: Ramaphosa plans to switch off Eskom’s tariff hike

It is not clear if there is any financial underpinning for his statement or a long-term strategy that justifies it.

What has, however, become clear is that one of the reasons load shedding has been so intense is that Eskom does not have the money to pay for diesel to run its open-cycle gas turbine stations. Together, these provide around 2,000MW, equivalent to roughly two stages of load shedding (a new measuring unit that is understood by every South African but no one else on Earth — Ed).

Eskom ensured that the entire world knew what exactly the problem was by going public with its decision, and its explanation for why it could not continue to use diesel. Up until this point, the National Treasury has not said whether it would agree to Eskom’s request for more money.

Meanwhile, in its tariff decision, energy regulator Nersa said one of the reasons it did not provide Eskom with the full amount it had asked for (a 32% increase) was because it was going to rely too much on diesel generation.

Generating electricity through diesel is much more expensive than using coal-fired power stations and Nersa would prefer Eskom to use more coal than it currently does to keep costs and tariffs down. As is well known, many coal-fired power plants are out of action because of planned maintenance or sabotage.

It is generally accepted that Eskom is under existential threat and needs cash, mountains of it. The utility has huge debts, it is losing money anyway and now the President himself is suggesting it should forgo a tariff increase that was already half of what it asked for. 


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Populism of the basest kind

Some may suggest that Ramaphosa simply did not understand the consequences of what he was saying. For the increasing ranks of critics, his latest move was populism of the basest kind. What is the difference in the financial logic between this promise and that of then president Jacob Zuma’s announcement, at the start of the ANC’s 2017 conference, that South Africa would implement free higher education for all?

Ramaphosa’s call appears motivated by simple populism and the realisation that rolling blackouts could cost the ANC a previously unimaginably large number of votes in the general election just 18 months away.

It also appears to contradict his own weekly newsletter published just hours after his statements.

In his newsletter on Monday, he says: 

“We should not make the mistakes of the past. For many years, critical maintenance was deferred, and our power stations were run too hard in order to keep the lights on. As a country we are now paying the price for these miscalculations.”

And yet, not increasing the amount of money available to Eskom would increase the chances of those “miscalculations” being repeated.

That this may be face-saving populism and an early appeal for 2024 election votes is also revealed by the fact that Ramaphosa only intervened after the process had concluded. Anyone watching the tariff application and aware of the situation facing Eskom would have known that a large increase was inevitable. There was public consultation and the formula to determine the decisions is available and understood.

And yet, Ramaphosa chose only to act at this dire moment.

Also, if he was genuinely distressed by Nersa’s decision and felt it was wrong, he could have joined the various court applications which have been lodged against it. This would have allowed him to be seen as opposing the increase and respecting the legal procedures.

Instead, he is appealing above all of the procedures directly to Eskom, at a political event, speaking only to members of his political party.

If Eskom goes ahead and forgoes this increase, it will put incredible pressure on its finances. The most likely outcome is that it will run out of money sooner than it would have otherwise. It certainly will not be able to make the proper investments it needs for the future. Also, it would surely be the biggest possible sign that decisions made by regulators can be overturned by a simple public request from the President, never a good sign.

In the longer run, Ramaphosa would be blamed for that.

An unforced error

But, if Eskom does not accede to his request, then Ramaphosa will simply look weak.

Either way, there is a big chance this turns out to be an unforced error. Ramaphosa did not have to make the comment he did and it could explode in his face at some point in time.

Meanwhile, there are now suggestions that Ramaphosa is looking to include other people in the net of those held publicly responsible for this situation.

Also in his Monday newsletter, he appealed to everyone to work together to fix the problem. But he did not, at any point, explain who made the mistakes that got us here.

At each and every point leading up to this situation, the ANC was in charge, and responsible for what happened. Whether it was the mistakes in energy policy, State Capture, simple corruption, or a failure to implement a proper solar water heater programme, at every step of the way, it was the fault of the ANC. That should never be forgotten and no amount of gaslighting can cover that up.

This desperate situation may explain why the leaders of some opposition parties failed to attend the virtual meeting Ramaphosa tried to hold with them last Sunday. They may well be aware that Ramaphosa would try to include them in the process of finding a solution. This would weaken the biggest weapon they may have in the 2024 elections, that the ANC government cannot keep the lights on.

This means that Ramaphosa may find it difficult to encourage some elements of our society to join him — they will not want to be held responsible when these efforts inevitably fail. They will also know that any of their input can be ignored or overridden by the ANC or the government, and thus there is nothing for them to gain. Why join a process you will have no real power over, when it could become your biggest political weapon in 2024?

It is clear that our electricity emergency requires solutions that involve trade-offs and difficult decisions around financing, cost and policy. Finding  and implementing these solutions will require technical skills, political nous and know-how. Decisions will need to be made by people with cool heads and no other motive than caring for South Africa’s future.

It will also require credibility. Without that credibility, it may be impossible for anyone, including Ramaphosa, to implement any kind of solution.

The comments made by Ramaphosa on Sunday will cost him credibility and make our problems harder to solve. The President may soon find out this is a helluva price to pay for a short-term gain. DM

Gallery

Comments - Please in order to comment.

  • jeyezed says:

    He should be encouraging people to pay the new tariff and pushing defaulters to pay their arrears. Anything else is tantamount to sabotage.

  • Johan Buys says:

    Well, if Eskom does not increase tariffs, the only way they will be able to buy powership electricity from Mrs Mantashe is selling a few coal stations to CR’s brother in law.

    This is what these clowns call a sustainability plan. Circle of life and all that.

  • Fanie Rajesh Ngabiso says:

    Eskom won’t last 18 months. And even if it does and you win the elections, good luck ruling Hell.

  • Thinker and Doer says:

    Very well said, Mr Grootes, thank you. The President’s statement is certainly populist, and desperate. The statements coming from government are contradictory and chaotic. It is clear that they have absolutely no plan for the crisis. Yesterday the President was saying there is not enough public funds to solve the crisis, and effectively begging the private sector to get involved, after all of these years trying to prevent independent power production being procured. They created this crisis, and are just continually making it worse. The President’s statement places Eskom in an untenable position, and is really unfair and unacceptable, when there are no other options being given to Eskom to substitute for the tariff increase.

  • Alley Cat says:

    I had to check my calendar to make sure it wasn’t 1st April when I read his comments. Sadly there is only one fooliaminy – THE ANC.

  • Michael Bellis says:

    The more recent comments by government ministers reveal poor and misguided understanding of the complexities of electric power generation and distribution. Every decision becomes politicised with finger pointing and trying to avoid blame at all cost. Every utterance is slanted, twisted and adds confusion for the general public. It’s become farcical, if it wasn’t so serious. Buying megawatts is like buying peanuts. Easy Peasy.
    Incompetence soaring to new heights.

  • Gerrie Pretorius says:

    At each and every point leading up to this situation, the ANC was in charge, and responsible for what happened. Whether it was the mistakes in energy policy, State Capture, simple corruption, or a failure to implement a proper solar water heater programme, at every step of the way, it was the fault of the ANC. That should never be forgotten and no amount of gaslighting can cover that up.
    Nothing more to be said. The anc is a criminal organisation, always has been.

  • steve woodhall says:

    Everyone seems to think the ANC will quietly vacate office should they lose the election in 2024 (which seems unlikely to me – it will be rigged for sure). And that they are in such a pickle because they are worried what voters will think about them, and decided to punish them at the polls. More likely will be a deliberate triggering of a grid failure followed by a coup d’état, with Russia being asked to send Wagner in to support them. (remember they are already all over Africa). I don’t think Cyril is complicit in this – the RET faction never went away, and Mantashe is the chief shill for handing over the economy to an overseas ‘friend’ who will make a billionaire out of his wife (and by extension, him and his clan). Cyril lacks the power to do what is needed, and that is to clean house.

  • Franz Dullaart says:

    I am “shocked”.

  • Cunningham Ngcukana says:

    The problem with electoral political cycle has is that governments are hard pressed to show results in a hard pressing issue such as electricity. The other problem is that the ANC is facing a new challenge of fake news being spread about each and everything from matric results, vaccination, fake statements to electricity and other issues to sabotage each other within the ANC. These issues reflect an internal shift in battles that the ANC has to respond to from its centre.
    These two problems, the immediate and pressing issues that would impact the AMC on the ballot and internal dynamics require that the ANC responds to the public expectations. The increase in the face of massive load shedding is very difficult to justify as small businesses are shutting doors with jobs on the line and poor household feel the pinch from damaged appliances, food and inability to watch television because of load shedding. You then have an issue of increases that are far below the inflation. No politician worth his or her salt would not respond and even in the UK they are responding to these price hikes. You have disinformation that the load shedding and increase is for the ANC to lose votes so that they can get into a coalition with the DA. Whilst Cyril has serious problems regarding delivery and decisiveness you have people within the ANC adding fake news to spice up the narrative. The increase in the face of blackouts would wipe out the ANC in elections especially if courts set it aside.

  • A Green says:

    I read the President’s comment as do not implement the tariff – now. While load shedding was at stage 6, without a clear plan communicated to the country. In no way am I defending who is responsible for getting us to this point, but am trying to be fair to the comments that were made.

  • Chris Leff says:

    I find it amazing that the plan to fix it is always 18/24 months. I am positive that the new plan involves getting it fixed before the next election to avoid a complete wipe out for the ANC (Absolutely No Current) They have unfortunately denuded the country of all real talent and we are left with a bunch of 30 percenters whose incompetency and criminality is mind boggling. Criminals also gravitate towards political careers as you don’t need testimonials or qualifications, sad really.

  • Clive Campbell says:

    Eskom needs to be ring fenced and declared a national emergency with any direct or indirect theft or sabotage being treated as treason with the perpetrators getting harsh sentences. The only problem is that the king pins are so well connected and hidden in the mess that they will never see the inside of the jail cell on permanent basis, just like public enemy JZ. The only way to sort this problem is privatise and get rid of the rot that we call the ANC

  • Laurence Erasmus says:

    Eskom is on its knees because of political interference and abuse by the ANC. Sadly this continues under Cyril’s watch.

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