For the last several years there have been predictions and claims that South Africa was “at a fork in the road”. That the next event, conference, few months, two years, or election would decide which way we were going. In each case, there has been no definitive direction, no definitive decision. But now the fork in the road is just ahead of us. In just three months, South Africa’s luck could finally run out.

From the start of 2017, many believed the ANC’s Nasrec conference would show which direction South Africa would take. The split nature of the result (and in particular the election of now-President Cyril Ramaphosa as ANC leader and Ace Magashule as its secretary-general) meant no definitive direction was immediately forthcoming.

Then it was believed that the elections would prove decisive. They were not. At least in terms of direction for the country (although you could argue they were decisive for the DA…).

After that, Ramaphosa’s inauguration, then his Cabinet, then his first decisions, then the first State Capture arrests by the National Prosecuting Authority.

But nothing has changed and no major decisions have been taken.

In the meantime, economic degradation pounded on, making people poorer and siphoning off hope. In the background, the mills of the rating agencies have been grinding. Slowly, but exceedingly fine.

Moody’s was crystal clear in its analysis released last Friday. It explained in excruciating detail what needed to be done, and when it needed to be done. There can be no doubt that it wants action by the time of Finance Minister Tito Mboweni’s Budget in February. That is not far off.

While there are some, such as Public Protector Busisiwe Mkhwebane, who believe that rating agencies are “oppressors of the downtrodden”, their influence cannot be ignored regardless of how off-the-wall crazy their statements were. If Moody’s downgrades us to junk, the consequences will be dire. Money will flow out of the country. The rand will weaken. The Reserve Bank will have no choice but to increase interest rates. (Intriguingly, economists are divided on what the full impact will actually be.)

No sane person would disagree that we will all be poorer.

After that, it will take some time to get back up on the rating agencies’ ladders and reverse the process. Konrad Reuss, the head of S&P in South Africa, said this week that it takes about seven to eight years to get an investment rating back. And his agency is looking at downgrading us further from investment-grade than it already has.

What this means is that the fork in the road – the one we have so far managed to avoid – is approaching fast. It’s just three months away.

On paper, and in public, Ramaphosa is doing his best to talk up what will happen in the next few weeks. He has trumpeted the SA Investment Conference as showing that more money is coming into the economy. He has claimed, repeatedly, that those involved in State Capture will be charged. He claimed at his inauguration that his administration would defeat poverty within a generation.

The reality is different.

Eleven years after load-shedding started, Eskom is still unable to produce enough power for the nation, its capacity is strained to the breaking point, the debt may crush us all. It is at least four years away from fixing its problems, if we’re lucky. Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe refuses to be rushed into granting more licences to renewable power producers. To be clear, this is a minister appointed by Ramaphosa, who supports him in the ANC, who is apparently not trying to fix the problem.

Then there is the question of the Eskom CEO. That person has still to be appointed, despite promise after promise. It can only be that politics is the reason for the delay.

And that’s just the beginning.

On Wednesday, the police union Popcru said Tito Mboweni should be removed as finance minister. While it claimed this was because of his insistence that e-tolls remain in force, it is more likely to be because of his proposed financial reform package – something which Cosatu, the SACP and Popcru itself strongly oppose.

Those implicated in State Capture walk around free, in some cases developing astonishing powers of prediction to the point where they can tell the Zondo Commission they will be ill a full week before they are due to appear.

This week marks a full year since the VBS scandal broke and it was revealed how much money was stolen. Despite a meticulous report compiled by an advocate with information from the Reserve Bank, and many investigative reports implicating some of SA’s most powerful people, not one person has been charged. Some of those implicated have instead been appointed to positions in provincial legislatures.

In essence, Ramaphosa’s problem is what politics is always about – getting the representatives of different constituencies to agree on a common plan, and then implementing it.

Our economic situation is proof that the ANC has not been able to do this for some time.

And those constituencies are further apart than ever.

The National Union of Mineworkers is threatening to “plunge the country into darkness” if Eskom is broken up. Cosatu and the SACP are doing their best to fight the implementation of Mboweni’s economic plan.

While the situation in the ANC has been quiet for several weeks (a post-Nasrec record…) it seems unlikely that some kind of magical accord has been reached between the factions in the party. Even the DA, the party that claimed to be unified, is in turmoil. And the EFF is doing all it can to divide the country even further.

There is currently very little we as a nation agree on (apart from, perhaps, Faf de Klerk’s taste in underwear).

It is often said that the key to resolving all of these problems is leadership. Certainly, it is a key element. And it has been badly lacking over the last 15 years or so. It’s still absent.

Promises, claims and predictions are worthless. To survive the fork in the road action is required. Now.

Unfortunately for South Africa, the probability of that action occurring is not very high. DM