Weather forecast — Challenges ahead for South Africa’s agriculture

Across the country, many people have likely read or heard about the likely drought in the 2026–27 summer season. But none of us has yet witnessed its signs. If anything, it actually rained in most regions of South Africa at the end of April.

That does not mean we should not take seriously the changing weather conditions this time of the year and what may unfold in the coming months. There are worrying developments on the weather outlook front, with serious implications for the farming sector, and ultimately the food supplies and prices in the country. But those implications may only be clearer in 2027. For now, we are seeing the development of potential challenges.

For example, on 1 May 2026, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) released its monthly Seasonal Climate Watch report. Two points about the uncertain weather outlook and its impact on South Africa’s agriculture over the coming months stand out in the report.

El Niño likely at start of summer season

Firstly, there’s a growing likelihood that we’re entering an El Niño event. This will likely begin around October 2026, which is the start of the 2026–27 summer season. The SAWS stated that “the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently still in a neutral state; current predictions indicate that it will rapidly move towards an El Niño state within the next few months and continue to strengthen up to spring and the start of the next summer season”.

The El Niño event generally increases the likelihood of drought or below-normal rainfall. Depending on the severity of the El Niño, it will likely negatively affect agricultural activity in South Africa and across southern Africa.

We will know how farmers react to this news and the area they decide to plant only later in the year. The impact will most likely be felt on summer grains, oilseeds, sugar cane and grazing veld. These are mostly rain-fed crops, with roughly 20% of the area under irrigation.

Meanwhile, the fruits and vegetables are all under irrigation. As we end the rainy season, the dams across the country are at healthy levels, which will support the irrigation in the 2026–2027 season, even if we are in a drier season. But we will revisit this matter later in the year as the weather authorities release a more updated weather outlook.

The 2025–26 summer crop season, for now, is the focus for South African farmers.

The crop is currently maturing and the harvest will soon begin across many regions of South Africa.

Importantly, we have an excellent harvest this season. For example, the data released by the Crop Estimates Committee last month show that South Africa’s 2025–26 summer grain and oilseed harvest is 20.8 million tonnes, up 1% year-on-year. This yearly improvement in the overall harvest is underpinned by upward revisions to major grains and oilseeds, particularly maize, soybeans and sunflower seed.

Below-normal rainfall in winter crop season

Secondly, South Africa experienced favourable rainfall at the start of the 2026–27 winter crop season in April 2026. However, we may encounter below-normal rainfall later in the season, which could affect the production of wheat, barley, canola and oats this year.

The SAWS stated that “below-normal rainfall is expected for the southwestern and southern coastal areas during this period”. Depending on how severe the challenge is, it may affect agricultural activity.

The farmers have already indicated their intention to reduce winter crop plantings, in part because of uncertainty about the weather outlook and higher input costs related to the Middle East war, as well as lower commodity prices.

Overall, in the coming weeks and months, we will need to closely monitor weather developments and their impact on the winter crops, and ahead of the start of the 2026-27 summer crop later in the year. The current outlook is concerning for 2026-27, but in the near term, the country has sufficient food supplies following a season of agricultural abundance. DM