Western Cape farmers face immediate challenge from Middle East war

In these times of heightened conversations about the impact of high fuel and fertiliser prices on agriculture, the region of South Africa I find myself thinking about the most right now is the Western Cape.

The Western Cape produces much of our winter crops: half of South Africa’s winter wheat, and the majority of our barley, canola and oats. Planting of these crops begins at the end of this month, April.

Some farmers probably bought their fertiliser before the start of this Middle East war and benefited from lower prices. But some may not have bought it then and will have to start planting at these higher fertiliser prices.

As I have said before on various platforms, fertiliser accounts for roughly 35% of South African grain farmers’ input costs, and fuel accounts for about 13%, meaning roughly half of the input costs are exposed to the challenges posed by the ongoing war in the Middle East.

It is unclear how many farmers also managed to secure fuel before the recent price hikes. But the core point is that South Africa is starting the 2026-27 winter crop season at a challenging time.

Things would have been better if the previous winter crop season in 2025-26 had been excellent. But it was not. Farmers across the Western Cape had to replant their crops twice or more. There was a snail infestation that attacked the seedlings.

Spraying and replanting meant farmers incurred even higher input costs than in normal seasons. What made things worse is that these commodities are traded on the global market, where their prices are determined. Farmers don’t have the market power to pass on costs directly to consumers. Therefore, they were strained from the previous season.

We are now starting the 2026-27 season from that back foot. Whether they will be upbeat to plant in the normal area, we will not know until 23 April, which is when the Crop Estimates Committee releases the farmers’ intentions-to-plant data for the 2026-27 winter crop season.

As bleak as these views are, from a consumer perspective, there should be no cause for concern in the near term. The world is awash with wheat, keeping prices under pressure. But the downside for farmers is that it weighs on their profitability, in a season when input costs are already higher due to the war.

Ample harvests

For example, the International Grains Council forecasts 2025-26 global wheat production at a record 842 million tonnes, up 5% year-on-year. This is due to ample harvests in the EU, Russia, the US, Canada, Australia, Argentina, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, among others.

It is partly these ample global supplies and lower global wheat prices that have led to calls to increase the domestic wheat import tariff.

The wheat import tariff exists to provide some level of protection for domestic wheat producers while ensuring that consumer welfare is not sacrificed. The key is to find some level of balance. At this time, when farmers are under pressure, we will be thinking more about this at the policy level.

Ultimately, we are entering a stressful season for farmers, and those in the Western Cape will be the first to feel the impact of the higher input costs. Other provinces that also produce winter wheat, such as the Northern Cape, Free State and Limpopo, will start planting around June, and they too will not be spared the higher input costs.

This will not be the only consideration for farmers as they prepare for the season; the weather outlook and commodity prices are among the factors they also need to consider.

With that said, from a consumer perspective, we are getting some breathing room from ample global wheat supplies. Still, these will be offset, to an extent, by the higher fuel prices over time. The products’ prices may not increase immediately, as there is a lag in price changes.

The overall point is that we are in an environment of higher input costs for farmers, and Western Cape farmers will be among the first to experience the impact of the Middle East war on costs. DM