A just energy transition needs the one thing the world still won’t deliver: finance

Global climate diplomacy continues to generate powerful statements, yet the daily realities are worsening for communities already facing escalating floods, droughts and pollution. The outcomes of COP30, the G20 Summit and, more recently, the Africa Energy Indaba, all underscore the same unavoidable truth: Africa cannot deliver a just transition without predictable and affordable climate finance.

COP30 reinforced international support for the Paris Agreement and the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. The G20 Summit echoed that commitment, acknowledging the vast scale of investment required to meet climate obligations.

Across Africa and the wider Global South, the impacts of climate change are already undermining livelihoods, health and development prospects. The world now has very few excuses to delay decisive action on phasing out fossil fuel dependence and delivering meaningful climate finance.

The global reality: promises without delivery

The science is clear, as presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): countries need to take decisive action to address climate risks in ways that will safeguard people.

While society echoes the need for a just energy transition, calling for greater investment in adaptation and mitigation from the Global North, clear commitments from the most developed nations — to substantially increase the provision of finance for these key outcomes — are still lacking. This gap is especially troubling given the G20’s own admission that developing countries will need nearly $6-trillion by 2030 to implement their climate commitments.

Countries in the Global North remain mandated to finance adaptation and mitigation, under Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement, because of their overwhelming contribution to the climate crisis.

Without scaled-up mitigation in industrialised countries, the 1.5°C limit evaporates, and the net-zero target would be impossible to reach by 2050. Without robust adaptation funding, climate disasters may drive mass displacement in vulnerable communities, widen inequality and destabilise entire regions. This aligns directly with the G20’s emphasis on early-warning systems, adaptation, and support for Loss and Damage — priorities that can no longer be postponed.

Earlier this month, speakers at the Africa Energy Indaba highlighted that energy security and climate responsibility are not competing priorities for the continent. Rather, they must be pursued together through accelerated renewable deployment, grid investment and policies that support workers and communities in coal-dependent regions.

The cost of delay: intensified climate vulnerability

The Global South is already spending billions each year to confront climate impacts it did not create. These are funds diverted from education, healthcare, housing and infrastructure.

Without adequate external support and commitment to resolve the debt crisis in the Global Majority, addressing climate shocks remains extremely difficult.

South Africa’s climate plans, referred to as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, emphasise that to prepare for the future, the country requires about R25-billion per year in investments to implement effective adaptation measures from 2026–2035. Africa’s financing needs remain vastly unmet, with high debt burdens restricting states’ ability to invest in clean energy and resilience.

South Africa’s progress toward a just energy transition is being steadily eroded by mixed and often contradictory policy signals. While climate commitments feature prominently in official discourse, parallel support for new fossil-fuel exploration — including fracking and offshore prospecting — diverts limited public resources from essential services such as education, healthcare and housing, while entrenching dependence on an energy system that is neither just nor sustainable.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil called for ending dependence on fossil fuels and for clear roadmaps for a just and equitable transition (transition away from fossil fuels or Taff), supported by the landmark decision on the Just Transition Mechanism. However, the global conversation must now move beyond discussion to implementation.

A just and inclusive energy transition

Eighty percent of South Africa’s emissions are generated from the electricity sector, due to the country’s reliance on coal. This has led to communities in Limpopo and Mpumalanga struggling from health-related impacts due to coal-fired power plants, exacerbated by the ongoing exemptions to minimum emissions standards in these regions.

Making matters worse, Limpopo’s rural communities are living out their deepest fears as climate risks intensify. The unusually severe January 2026 floods submerged homes, schools and bridges, and parts of the Kruger National Park. Nearly 1,000 households were affected, as villages were cut off for days after key transport routes across Vhembe and Mopani were destroyed, limiting access to essential services. In addition to several lives lost, the damage caused was estimated at R1.7-billion.

Now, the real question is, how do we ensure that as we transition from a high-carbon economy to a low-carbon economy, communities won’t be left behind? Because if we don’t act now, this could become a reality for many more vulnerable communities.

These transition plans must focus on rethinking economic models and excessive consumption in wealthy countries, while ensuring that people in poorer nations have access to electricity, adequate housing, hospitals and schools.

As the COP30 Action Agenda stresses, a just transition must protect workers and communities dependent on fossil-fuel industries while opening new pathways through green industrialisation and clean-energy investment.

Turning commitments into action: implementation

The focus must now shift to how countries will implement the commitments made at COP30 and the G20 Summit, which should serve as a political mandate to scale up support for developing countries — particularly on the cost of capital, debt relief and access to affordable climate finance. But without concrete, predictable and concessional financial commitments from developed nations, these promises risk remaining aspirational rather than transformative.

The path forward is not just about setting distant targets, but about securing the financing, justice and international solidarity required to deliver real change on the ground.

If countries are serious about keeping 1.5°C within reach, then COP30’s call to end fossil-fuel subsidies and the G20’s recognition of the trillions needed for developing-country transitions must be fused into a single, actionable global roadmap.

South Africa cannot afford another cycle of declarations without delivery. These roadmaps must be translated into legislation and policies at domestic level, focusing on the need to protect coastal communities and indigenous rights.

With some of the major conversations around Africa’s energy future now settled, the message is unmistakable: the world has the science and the commitments. What remains is the political will to move from promises to implementation that is just, inclusive and transformative. DM

Gillian Hamilton is an economic researcher with The Green Connection. Lisa Makaula is the advocacy lead at The Green Connection, an ecojustice organisation that works with small-scale fishers and coastal communities to defend livelihoods, safeguard the ocean and advance environmental justice.