Putin’s crusade of insanity in Ukraine is a disaster and Russia is in denial

Four years ago, Russia attacked Ukraine. For an entire year before that, the world, terrified by the enormous military force amassed at the Ukrainian border, begged Russia not to do it. Presidents, prime ministers, chancellors, one after another, travelled to Moscow, sat across from Vladimir Putin at that ridiculously long Covid-era table and tried to find a hint of hope in his eyes.

He played with them all. He toyed with that hope like a cat with a mouse. Millions of lives were at stake – and he treated them like an extra-thick stack of cards.

Which, sadly, doesn’t stop many from saying now that “Russia was provoked!” and that “he had no other way!” Well, he had one, but chose to go to war, because he thought it would be a walk in a park. Instead, it became a walk through Hell. With no end in sight.

Putin’s bet in Ukraine did not pay off. Figuratively speaking, he could not pull a Venezuela. Ukraine’s freedom survived although no one believed it would. After destroying hundreds of towns and villages, after killing hundreds of thousands of people – military and civilians, Ukrainians and Russians, North Koreans and Africans – Russia has fully occupied only one of Ukraine’s 24 oblasts.

Not for the lack of trying though and – God knows – not out of kindness towards Ukraine. All imaginable horrors of the world – including beheadings, castrations, deliberate starvation and, currently, an attempt to freeze millions to death – almost nothing was left untried in this crusade of insanity. Sadly, quite possibly, with more horrors to come.

And yet, the aggression became stuck, bogged down, like a heavy Soviet tank in a swamp. Primarily because Ukrainian people turned out to be tough. Instead of flowers from civilians and surrender from the military, the invaders faced fire and endless rejection.

At this point, it must be dawning on Putin that the only way to conquer Ukraine is to kill it – either by pushing the nuclear button or by targeting Ukraine’s nuclear reactors. And he would have done so already were it not for the proximity of Russian borders and the fact that the nuclear cloud does not bother to choose what land to contaminate – Ukrainian or Russian.

Read more: Letter from Kyiv: Exhausted but unbroken after four years of full-scale war

The second reason for Putin’s debacle in Ukraine was the support of people and states who did not look away as the world’s biggest nation was carving up its smaller neighbour. It became the noblest rescue operation in Europe’s history. Not without a tinge of self-interest though – Europe was protecting not only Ukraine but also itself from someone who was not playing games of cards anymore and made no secret of its hostile intentions.

Russia’s “special military operation” is just a euphemism for geopolitical murder. An act of profound evil that involves aggression, mass killings, rape, torture, looting and abductions. Standing with someone who does things like that in the 21st century is as humanly indecent as it gets. No wonder that only the vilest and most oppressive dictatorships of the world chose this path: North Korea, Iran, Belarus – those who crossed the line between good and evil long ago. Sadly, with no chance of turning back under their current dictators.

Yet even now, Russia has no intention of making peace. Even with the objectives of the war missed by a mile, with half of its navy gone, with a third of the strategic aviation destroyed or damaged, with almost the entire prewar stock of tanks and armoured vehicles unusable, with 1.2 million Russian personnel killed or wounded, with its economy in stagflation, with a banking crisis looming, with ever more humiliating dependence on China, with deteriorating geopolitical positions in many parts of the world, the Kremlin still claims: “We haven’t even started yet.”

What is that about? What kind of denial is that?

The answer is simple. Like every aggressor, Russia lives in a world of its own. The reality of war makes more sense to it than the reality of peace as it tickles its imperial ego and reminds the world how much suffering Moscow can unleash when it feels like it.

The world is in fear of an even bigger war – and Russians (let us be honest) enjoy every second of it. No matter how many have already perished for the sake of the voices in Putin’s head, it is not the relevant factor for Moscow. As Russian chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said (referring to the early 18th century): “We once fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?”

In other words, what is a problem and unspeakable tragedy for the world is an accomplishment for Putin. Why should he deny himself and his people the pleasure of being feared again? And if this is truly Russia’s logic, then what can the world do?

Obviously, Ukraine will fight and keep the doors to a peaceful settlement open. And those in the world who are not fighting but cannot be friends with a geopolitical murderer will support the defence of the country attacked against the attacker. But what can Russia’s friends do?

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Today’s Russia is an addict, with addiction to blood and violence. And like in most addiction cases, one of the things that might help is honesty. Not from Russia’s opponents but its friends. After all, they get hurt by this war too.

Ideally, the right and honest thing to say to Putin: “We are your friends but what you are doing is not okay. Millions of lives are not a toy. If you have demands, say it and we will hear it. But you cannot just willy-nilly demand the land that is not yours. You cannot single-handedly destroy every principle, upon which the post-World War 2 world was based: respect for sovereignty, inviolability of borders, rejection of aggression, denunciation of imperialism – the list is long.”

Of course, the probability that Putin would listen is uncertain (unless the big ones like China, South Africa or Brazil joined in), but at least it would be the moral thing to do. In justifying the unjustifiable, Russia claims that while Ukraine is backed in this war by the West, Russia is backed by “the world’s majority”.

In other words, it pretends to conduct this perverted war not for the sake of its imperial comeback but in the interest of the Global South. Maybe it is time to correct this clear distortion of facts and make it clear that neutrality and support of a war of aggression are not the same. And maybe it is time to say: “War of aggression? Not in our name!” DM

Olexander Scherba is Ukraine’s ambassador to South Africa.