As US-Africa Week gets under way, only two African nations, Egypt and Morocco, are set to join the US-led Board of Peace initiative. Other African countries have been trekking frequently to Beijing to consolidate their allegiance with China.
Africa comes into this trade and investment meeting with the US with the Washington Accords failing, escalating civil unrest in South Sudan, DRC and Khartoum, tariff barriers and US visa battles, the G20 Summit debacle, foreign aid cuts, white genocide allegations, Gavi (global vaccine alliance) disengagements, and staggering minerals deals.
Behind the scenes as US-Africa Week unfolds are the boiling US-China geopolitical tensions.
Tangle for supremacy
I can categorically predict that the Trump administration will make a concerted effort to get African leaders to choose an alliance with the US over China, as the two global foes tangle for supremacy on the geopolitical chessboard.
Geopolitical kerfuffles have shifted from East versus West to the US versus China, unfortunately compelling other nations across the globe to choose between the two giants.
In the wake of the US-China struggle, Africa is forced to take a rook’s role on the chessboard and choose between the two leading veto powers.
Reflecting on America’s action in Venezuela, the duo’s power struggle is clearly restructuring the global order into a long-awaited multipolar order. Let’s take some lessons from Venezuela as a guiding benchmark for African leaders, to help them choose a better ally.
Imagine moving your knight or bishop on the chessboard only to be captured halfway through the game – that’s exactly what the US did to China when it took action in Venezuela.
On the geopolitical chessboard, the US’ action was a humiliating move for China, which has invested more than $100-billion in ports, tech infrastructure and oil contracts there.
Lest we forget, on 3 January US forces led by General John Daniel Caine captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores as pawns after a Chinese delegation had visited Caracas.
Power struggle
The US operation was about more than Maduro’s regime running a narcotic state, its abuse of human rights and the rigging of elections. It was a king’s move to win the US-China power struggle on the geopolitical chessboard.
The Venezuela debacle was strongly condemned as having violated international law, but should be a reality check for Global South leaders regarding cooperation with China.
China, the queen on the board, has violated international law in Taiwan and the Philippines, among other countries. Queen China has been interfering with the democratic government in Taiwan, and Chinese ships have taken part in harassment actions against the Philippines.
China is no innocent when it comes to breaking international law, and in coercing other nations to take its side on the geopolitical chessboard.
This should serve as a stark reminder to African leaders that it is a huge miscalculation to rely too heavily on the US’ adversaries.
As “King” US continues to battle “Queen” China for global influence, Africa remains a key rook on the chessboard, and the decisive endgame will be influenced by African players at the Washington meeting.
African leaders who are in bed with Queen China have a critical move to make, especially those whose countries lack economic and military strength. African leaders should remember that China does not protect its allies.
Lessons
Last year, China abandoned Iran during the Israel conflict, showing that it does not bleed for any nation. Venezuela and Iran are lessons to Global South leaders that China does not intervene, shield or protect its allies when its help is needed most.
Yes, China will fund you, pose on camera and use beautiful, diplomatic words to describe your partnership – but it will never take the fall for you.
Bilateral and multilateral relations should not just be about logistics and optics, they should include defence and meaningful solidarity.
As African leaders head to US-Africa Week, they should be aware of the US’ strategic dominance over China. They should note that China is a fair-weather friend who will leave you exposed on the geopolitical chessboard.
Africa’s bishops, rooks and knights should rekindle the continent’s deteriorating relationship with the US, and make it an “all-weather” ally over China. DM
Robert Kigongo is a Sustainable Development Analyst and geopolitician.