We always take a keen interest in export-related matters in South African agriculture. Our sector is export oriented, and each market matters, regardless of our share in it.
One of the markets that has been at front of mind for much of 2025, and as we start 2026 is the US. The first challenge was the “Liberation Day” tariffs, which completely changed the landscape and rendered much of our exports somewhat uncompetitive relative to the likes of Chile and Peru. We face 30% tariffs, while these competitors face about 10%.
Still, this didn’t mean we would move away from the US, but rather a sharp focus on how we could see these tariffs lowered. Another aspect at front of mind was the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) trade preference programme, which has been due for extension. We feared we might be excluded from it for various reasons.
But the news out of the US on 3 February 2026 brought a breather. The US authorities’ formal extension of the Agoa programme through 31 December 2026 is a welcome development.
Benefits of Agoa distorted
While the Liberation Day tariffs of 30% have distorted the benefits of Agoa to some extent, it remains crucial. In the absence of Agoa, some SA export products to the US would have probably faced about 33% tariffs, including Most Favoured Nation tariffs, in addition to Liberation Day tariffs.
Here, we have added an average 3% lower-end Most Favoured Nation tariff, but the rates generally differ by product. Thankfully, we are not at this stage, and SA still faces about 30% tariffs on non-exempted products under the Liberation Day tariffs.
Zooming into SA’s farming sector alone, the US remains an important market. It accounted for approximately 4% of SA’s total agricultural exports in 2024 (overall SA farm product exports were valued at $13.7-billion).
The exports were also strong in the first two quarters of 2025. Even after the Liberation Day tariffs were announced, some exporters took advantage of the 90-day pause on the higher tariffs and exported more volume than usual. In fact, in the second quarter of 2025, SA’s agricultural exports to the US increased by 26% to $161-million.
It was only in the third quarter of 2025 that we saw some cooling in exports. Notably, SA’s agricultural exports to the US decreased by 11% in the third quarter of 2025, compared with the same period a year ago, at $144-million.
The composition of the products hasn’t changed much; it is mainly citrus, wine, fruit juices and nuts, among other typical agricultural exports to the US.
We have yet to receive the final quarter of 2025 data to have a full-year view. The 4% share of the US in SA agricultural exports is not small, as few specific industries are primarily involved in these exports. These are mainly citrus, table grapes, raisins, nuts, wine, fruit juices and ostrich products, among others.
Reciprocal tariffs modified
It is also worth highlighting that the US has decided to modify its reciprocal tariffs and exempt some food products, thus easing agricultural trade friction, which is costly to both exporting countries and US consumers.
The exempted products include coffee and tea, fruit juices, cocoa and spices, as well as avocados, bananas, coconuts, guavas, limes, oranges, mangoes, plantains, pineapples, various peppers and tomatoes, beef and additional fertilisers.
From a South African perspective, it is oranges, macadamia nuts and fruit juices that benefit from the exemption. The rest of SA’s agricultural products currently face a 30% import tariff in the US market.
With the Agoa extension now official for the year, the tariff remains at 30%.
From now on, the key focus for SA should be on securing a trade agreement with the US, as the current higher tariffs continue to disadvantage SA compared with our competitors in the US market. DM
Sihlobo is the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa. He is also a senior research fellow in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University.