Global nationalist surge: South Africa’s looming choice between populism and democracy

Conservatism is back. Not the quiet, establishment conservatism of the post-Cold War era, but a louder, more populist, and more nationalist strain that has swept across continents.

From Washington to Warsaw, Delhi to Brasília, conservative movements are reshaping politics, redrawing alliances and challenging a liberal democratic order that once seemed unshakeable.

This isn’t just a story about the singular personalities of Donald Trump or Viktor Orbán. It is a deeper shift in the global mood – one driven by economic insecurity, cultural backlash, migration anxieties and a growing distrust of political elites. And South Africa, though often focused inward on its own crises, is not immune to these currents.

Drivers of the rising tide

The 2008 financial crisis remains the “Big Bang” of this era. It shattered faith in globalisation, leaving working-class communities across the US and Europe feeling abandoned as collateral damage.

Automation, outsourcing and stagnant wages compounded a sense that the system was rigged. Conservatives seized this moment of economic dislocation, promising protectionism and national revival. Whether through the “America First” doctrine or the watershed moment of Brexit, the message was clear: the nation comes first.

But bread-and-butter issues tell only half the story. A potent cultural backlash has followed rapid social transformations involving gender, identity and multiculturalism. In communities that feel their traditions are under siege, this resistance has turned political. Orbán’s “illiberal democracy” in Hungary, India’s Hindu nationalism under the BJP and Erdoğan’s Islamist conservatism in Turkey all tap into the same vein: a defence of identity against perceived liberal overreach.

Migration and security fears have further sharpened these edges. Europe’s refugee crisis and America’s southern border debates have given conservative parties a powerful rallying cry.

By framing migration as an attack on sovereignty and cultural cohesion, leaders such as Italy’s Matteo Salvini have turned the “other” into a primary political target. This is turbocharged by a visceral distrust of “The Elite”. From Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil to Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, the new conservative archetype is the “outsider” promising to smash a failed establishment.

Regional expressions and global fallout

The manifestations of this surge are diverse, but interconnected.

The United States Republican Party has undergone a fundamental transformation, leaning into a culturally combative and protectionist populism.

In Europe, beyond Brexit, the rise of Giorgia Meloni in Italy and the Vox party in Spain shows that the nationalist tide is a permanent feature of the landscape, not a passing phase.

Across Asia and Latin America, conservatism often fuses with religion and authoritarianism, seen in the rise of Hindutva in India or the radical libertarian-conservative hybrid of Javier Milei in Argentina.

The geopolitical consequences are profound. Multilateralism is fraying as nations retreat into “sovereignty-first” policies. Alliances are shifting; the US-China rivalry has hardened into a decoupling era, while Russia courts European right-wing parties.

In this new world, climate policy and human rights are often the first casualties, as environmental protections are rolled back in favour of industrial nationalism and democratic checks and balances are pruned in the name of “order”.

The South African lens: A narrative shift

South Africa may seem far removed from Trump rallies or Orbán’s speeches, but the echoes are unmistakeable, and they are growing louder as we approach the 2026 local government elections. Our domestic pressures mirror the global tide with startling accuracy.

The persistent inequality and unemployment that define our landscape provide the same fuel that launched populist movements abroad. This economic dislocation has transformed into a sharp distrust of political elites; years of corruption scandals and governance failures have eroded public faith, creating fertile ground for anti-establishment politics.

We see this most clearly in the rise of movements like the uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party and the Patriotic Alliance.

Their rhetoric – a blend of traditional values, fierce nationalism and “sovereignty-first” logic – is the South African version of the global trend. Xenophobic sentiment and the weaponisation of migration anxieties are no longer fringe; they have become central to the political conversation, mirroring the border debates of the Global North.

As a BRICS member, South Africa now finds itself at a geopolitical crossroads, straddling a world split between liberal democratic norms and the pull of authoritarian-leaning partners.

The 2026 elections will probably be the moment when this “New Old Guard” truly tests the resilience of our constitutional order. The question is no longer if these global currents will reach us, but whether our democratic institutions can withstand the pressure of a populist surge that promises order and identity at the cost of the liberal consensus.

Structural transformation

The resurgence of conservatism is a structural shift, not a passing phase. It thrives on the pain that globalisation left behind and the anxieties of those who feel their culture is slipping away. It redraws the map, weakens multilateralism and challenges the very foundations of democratic norms.

For South Africa, the lesson is clear: the global tide is rising, and its currents are already lapping at our shores. Whether we strengthen our democratic resilience or drift toward a populist, “sovereignty-first” conservatism will shape not just our domestic politics, but our place in a fractured and turbulent world. DM

Murshid Obaray is a businessman, a lecturer in the school of commerce at a tertiary institution and a business coach. He serves on the board of an NPO called MOT, and on the Legal Practice Council’s disciplinary committee and appeals tribunal.