Bumper harvests boost tractor sales as SA farmers bet big on 2026

When the agricultural sector is thriving, its interlinked industries also benefit. We are seeing such benefits from the 2025 agricultural machinery sales, which were reasonably strong. For example, South Africa's 2025 tractor sales amounted to 7,668 units, up 19% from 2024. The combine harvester sales amounted to 207 units in 2025, up by 3% from the previous year. These solid sales may continue in 2026, as the agricultural conditions, particularly in field crops and horticulture, remain favourable.

But let's look back at 2025. Among other things, the solid agricultural machinery sales primarily reflect the financial gains from the better 2024-25 agricultural season, particularly in field crops, horticulture and wine grape harvests, which were mainly supported by favourable weather conditions.

For example, the Crop Estimates Committee forecasts the 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds harvest at 20.08 million tonnes, up 30% from the previous season. Moreover, South African sugar production for the 2024-25 season is forecast to recover by 7% year on year to 2.09 million tonnes. South Africa's winter wheat also performed reasonably well, with an estimated harvest of 1.99 million tonnes, up 3% from the previous production season.

Regarding the horticultural subsector, we saw robust harvests across the board. For example, South Africa's wine grape harvest was 1.244 million tonnes, an 11% recovery from 2024. In addition, the South African table grape industry has posted upbeat production figures, and there are encouraging production data from citrus, various fruits and vegetables.

It is because of such strong production figures that South Africa also posted excellent exports in 2025. We have the data for the first three quarters of the year. They show that South Africa's agricultural exports amounted to US$11.7-billion, up 10% year on year. When we receive the full-year 2025 data, I suspect that South Africa's agricultural exports would have exceeded US$13.7-billion in 2024 and possibly crossed R229-billion (US$14-billion). The volumes of exports and prices were generally healthy.

The fact that the ports were broadly operational for much of the year, with challenges at the Cape Town port only appearing at the end of the year, also supported the various agricultural subsector export performances and the financial conditions in the sector.

Of course, we talk about this optimism, but not all is well in South Africa's agriculture. The cattle industry has been under strain due to foot-and-mouth disease. There would likely have been even stronger sales if this subsector had also been thriving. Remember, some farmers are in mixed farming operations and would have been in a far better financial condition if we hadn't had the foot-and-mouth disease crisis.

To address this challenge, the South African government decided at the end of 2025 to begin to vaccinate the 12.1 million cattle in the national herd. The logistics of this effort and the sourcing of the vaccines remain significant challenges. The speed of vaccination and the potential recovery of the cattle industry will positively impact the interlinked sectors, including agricultural machinery sales.

Beyond the excellent performance of the field crops and horticulture in 2025, the strong tractor and combine harvester sales signal farmers' optimism about the 2025-26 agricultural season. The 2025-26 season will likely deliver another year of ample harvests, as La Niña rains continue to support production conditions across various agricultural subsectors. In the case of summer grains and oilseeds, farmers intend to plant 4.1 million hectares in the 2025-26 season, up 1% from the previous year. We will likely see decent plantings in other crops.

We have been receiving favourable rainfall across the country and, in fact, some areas are receiving more rain than desirable. Still, the agricultural conditions look favourable, and the crops are generally in good condition across the various regions of South Africa. We are still early in the season, and crop-growing conditions will evolve in the coming months, possibly in a favourable way for yet another superb season.

The pace of vaccination in the cattle industry against foot-and-mouth disease will also matter for agricultural machinery sales, particularly for farming entities in mixed farming enterprises, which require a broad financial recovery after months of pressure from the disease.

Moreover, in addition to improved agricultural production conditions for the 2024-25 season and promising prospects for the new 2025-26 season, interest rates have eased somewhat from recent higher levels, and the affordable cost of capital supports sales.

Most importantly, I don't see the strong sales as a matter of just 2025; I am optimistic that we may continue on this path in 2026, as the cost of capital remains affordable and the sector is likely to deliver another year of ample harvests, all of which strengthen some farmers' financial positions.

Indeed, when farmers do well, the benefits flow to the interlinked industries and the communities they operate in. Currently, we are seeing gains from the field crops and horticulture subsectors of agriculture.

Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz). He is also a senior research fellow in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University.