The year 2025 was a generally good year for South Africa’s agriculture and the broader farming sector. We emerged from a drought and heatwave in 2024 and saw excellent harvests of crops, fruits, and vegetables. Indeed, some countries in the region remained net importers of grains and other agricultural products from South Africa and the rest of the world. But import needs were much lower than a year earlier, during a drought.
In South Africa specifically, the broad agricultural sector recovery poses a challenge, however. Foot-and-mouth disease has remained a prominent feature of our cattle industry, imposing high costs on farming businesses. It was only at the end of the year that the government announced its intention to vaccinate the 12.1 million cattle in the national herd. The logistics of this effort and the sourcing of the vaccines remain significant challenges. In a few days from now, when we all emerge from our holiday places, this will probably be one of the preoccupations of the farming sector of South Africa.
We have private-sector companies that, over time, could produce vaccines, and national entities, such as the Agricultural Research Council and Onderstepoort Biological Products, that must be rejuvenated to play this role. So far, we have relied on Botswana to supply us with foot-and-mouth disease vaccines. But the Botswana supply won’t be sufficient, and there are concerns about the vaccine’s potency.
This cattle industry challenge led to what I have termed “a mixed recovery” in South Africa’s agriculture in 2025. The livestock industry is also critical, accounting for roughly half of South Africa’s farming fortunes. Therefore, when the subsector struggles, the impact is felt across the board.
Beyond the cattle industry, other subsectors did well and delivered excellent harvests. It is for this reason that in the first three-quarters of 2025, South Africa’s agricultural exports amounted to$11.7-billion, up 10% year on year. When we receive the full-year 2025 data, I suspect that South Africa’s agricultural exports will have exceeded the $13.7-billion in 2024 and possibly passed $14-billion. The volumes of exports and prices were generally healthy.
Healthy farming fortunes
These healthy farming fortunes also extended to the interlinked industries. For example, we have South Africa’s agricultural machinery sales data for the 11 months of 2025. Cumulative tractor sales are 7,176 units, up 19% year on year. The combine harvester sales for the 11 months are at 200 units, up by 3%. The sales have generally been robust throughout the year, with combine harvesters only cooling in recent months.
The one challenge that we saw emerge at the end of 2025, which will probably be part of conversations in 2026, is the differing views on trade policy. As the year drew to a close, I saw news from Botswana that it was banning the import of various vegetables from South Africa. Moreover, a few days before Christmas, Mozambique went further in the same direction. Namibia went so far as to ban imports of some poultry products from South Africa.
These are not new issues in this region. We have seen them play out before, and our hope from the start of 2025 was that the new leaders in some countries would embrace the regional spirit and not attempt to limit South Africa’s participation in their markets.
Southern African Customs Union
What makes this worse is that, for some of the countries, we are part of the Southern African Customs Union, which was formed in 1910 and comprises Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia, and South Africa. Among other things, this bloc ensures the free exchange of goods with no tariffs. Now that these countries continue this practice, one wonders whether South Africa should remain part of the union? This will be a discussion point in 2026.
Apart from the regional issues, being part of the Southern African Customs Union also slows South Africa’s ambition to broaden its exports and sign free trade agreements with other countries. In every encounter, South Africa must play by the rules and secure the backing of other union members. But if the other union members have no interest in rules, why should South Africa care?
Beyond these issues, at a production level, we have continued to receive the excellent La Niña rains, which have supported crop conditions and the grazing veld across the country. Thus, I believe that we enter 2026 with far better prospects of a continuous and broad recovery from the already better conditions of 2025. The favourable rains we see here at home are also a reality in some countries in the region, supporting regional agricultural prospects in 2026. DM
Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz). He is also a senior research fellow in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University.