South Africa’s government and its people face a host of pressing domestic challenges – from unemployment to corruption to crime.
Yet, as the country demonstrated through its courageous decision to take Israel to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) over atrocities in Gaza, it remains committed to Nelson Mandela’s vision of a foreign policy grounded in human rights and international law.
Today, that vision demands attention closer to home. South Africa must not forget Zimbabwe. What happens north of the Limpopo has immediate and profound consequences for South Africa’s stability, economy, and regional leadership.
For more than two decades, Zimbabwe has lurched from one crisis to the next – crises borne not of misfortune, but of elite power struggles, state capture and systemic corruption. Since the disputed 2023 elections, however, the country has entered a perilous new phase.
The ruling Zanu-PF party has consolidated near-total control through a combination of repression, legislative engineering and co-option of key actors, effectively shutting down pathways for democratic change.
If this trajectory continues unchecked, South Africa will soon face the fallout of a fully entrenched and emboldened authoritarian kleptocracy on its doorstep – a crisis far more destabilising than the waves of migration and economic spillovers seen since 1999.
Rigged election, co-opted rivals
The Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) emerged ahead of the 2023 elections as a credible democratic challenger. But after an election widely viewed as rigged, the opposition was systematically dismantled from within. Nelson Chamisa’s abrupt resignation in early 2024 left millions of Zimbabweans politically homeless.
Meanwhile, other progressive formations were co-opted into President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s Political Actors Dialogue, a token platform trading perks for silence. Civil society was targeted through the Private Voluntary Organisations Bill, a draconian law aimed at strangling independent NGOs and silencing dissent.
By early 2024, the regime had achieved near-total dominance: activists were harassed, opposition parties fragmented and NGOs criminalised. The flicker of democratic hope that briefly emerged after Robert Mugabe’s ouster in 2017 has been extinguished.
Zimbabwe’s crisis is not merely political; it is the direct result of state capture and institutionalised looting. Control over gold, diamonds and lithium has enriched a narrow elite linked to the presidency while hollowing out the state.
Hyperinflation and a collapsing currency have pushed basic necessities – food, housing, healthcare – beyond the reach of ordinary families.
The formal economy has all but collapsed. Millions of Zimbabweans now survive in what economists call “ungainful employment” – hustling on the margins. Teachers, nurses and soldiers are trapped in poverty while infrastructure projects have become vehicles for plunder through opaque contracts awarded to cronies, saddling future generations with debt.
Mnangagwa’s rise in 2017 was enabled by the military, yet he quickly turned on his backers. Between 2019 and 2021, more than 60 senior officers died under suspicious circumstances; even Vice President Constantino Chiwenga was nearly assassinated through poisoning. Governance has become a function of personal survival, not national interest.
Mnangagwa is now pushing to extend his rule beyond the constitutional 2028 limit, with the Zanu-PF conference this week set to endorse term extensions – a move that would cement his grip and shut the door on electoral change once and for all.
Read more: Plan to postpone Zimbabwe elections to keep Mnangagwa in power roils ruling Zanu-PF
Fallout for SA
For South Africans, Zimbabwe’s descent is not a distant geopolitical concern – it is a lived reality. Zimbabwe’s collapse has shaped the region’s political economy for a generation. Millions of Zimbabweans live and work in South Africa, contributing significantly to agriculture, construction and urban services.
Yet their presence has also strained schools, clinics and housing, and intensified job competition, occasionally fuelling xenophobic violence.
If Zimbabwe continues on its current trajectory, the consequences for South Africa will be severe:
- Migration pressures will surge, overwhelming already stretched border systems;
- Cross-border criminal networks, including gold smuggling and illicit trade, will deepen, undermining law enforcement; and
- Regional instability may spill over if elite factionalism or military unrest erupts north of the Limpopo – threatening the stability of SADC’s most critical corridor.
Simply put: a stable, democratic Zimbabwe is in South Africa’s national interest.
Regional solidarity
Zimbabwean citizens and civil society are demanding a national reset – including Mnangagwa’s resignation, protection of term limits, credible elections, genuine dialogue and the restoration of constitutionalism. Their struggle, however, will be far more difficult without regional solidarity and pressure.
South Africa, Zimbabwe’s largest trading partner and historical ally, wields considerable leverage. It cannot afford to repeat the failed policy of “quiet diplomacy” that enabled Mugabe’s entrenchment. Silence today will be complicity tomorrow.
Political parties, business leaders, religious communities and civil society in South Africa should speak with one voice in pressing for democratic reforms. At a multilateral level, SADC must be pushed to act decisively – not through platitudes, but by tying economic and diplomatic engagement to concrete democratic benchmarks.
Zimbabwe stands at a crossroads. It can become a partner in regional prosperity or a perpetual source of crisis. Its citizens are beginning to answer that question, but they need regional solidarity and support.
South Africa faces an equally stark choice: act now to support democratic forces or deal with the cascading consequences of a neighbour lost to authoritarian kleptocracy.
South Africa’s leaders often invoke the phrase “African solutions to African problems”. Zimbabwe is the test case.
Pretoria’s response will signal whether that principle is mere rhetoric – or the foundation of a principled, strategic foreign policy. DM
Tinashe Madondo recently launched a petition to demand President Mnangagwa’s resignation to end state capture.