Most Batswana are conservative on many issues. But in the generally peaceful general election on Wednesday, 30 October 2024, they conducted an electoral revolution, handing an extraordinary defeat to the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP).
The BDP was not simply the ruling party. It was the party that, alone and without a break, has governed Botswana since independence in 1966, having won the 1965 pre-independence election.
Since then, it has won 11 consecutive elections, held every five years, despite strong contestation by opposition parties. These elections have been broadly free although the advantages of incumbency have meant that they have never been exactly fair. Before 2024, it had only once (in 2014) won less than half of the vote. In 2019, it won 53% of the vote.
In 2024, its share of the vote plummeted to 31%. It won only four out of the country’s now 61 constituencies. The main opposition coalition, the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), won 36 seats, ie a clear majority.
President Boko sworn in
The smaller opposition Botswana Congress Party (BCP) won 15 seats, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) won five, with an independent candidate winning the final seat. The BDP’s President Mokgweetsi Masisi immediately accepted defeat and congratulated the victor, Duma Boko of the UDC. Boko was promptly sworn in as president last Friday. The massacre of the BDP in parliament was reflected also in the concurrent district council elections.
The BDP has been wiped out in terms of representation in the national parliament and district councils in part because of the design of the country’s electoral system. Botswana continues to use the British (or Westminster) electoral system, with constituencies won by whoever wins the most votes without any concern with overall proportionality (as in South Africa).
In the previous elections, the system worked to the BDP’s advantage. In 2024, it massively disadvantaged the BDP. Its support remains substantial but is spread across the country. Despite winning almost one-third of the vote, this resulted in only four out of 61 parliamentary seats.
By contrast, the UDC won a few more votes (39%) but 36 seats. The BDP won more votes than the BCP and BPF combined, but only four seats to their combined 20.
The electoral system resulted in many constituencies being won with a very small share of the vote. In Mmadinare, the UDC candidate won with only 30% of the vote. In Kgatleng West, the BCP’s Unity Dow won with 33% of the vote.
If the swing from the BDP to the UDC had been five percentage points less, ie the BDP had won 36% of the vote, then the BDP would have won an additional nine or so seats, denying the UDC a parliamentary majority.
Commentators – myself included – anticipated that the BDP would lose its parliamentary majority, but no one seems to have anticipated the scale of its collapse.
Afrobarometer’s regular polls showed that support for the BDP fell sharply between 2019 and 2022. The most recent Afrobarometer poll, conducted in July of this year, showed that support for the BDP was trailing behind the opposition parties combined.
Read more in Daily Maverick: Masisi's shock defeat in Botswana heralds big changes, difficult turnaround
Pundits worried, however, that the inability of the opposition parties to maintain a coalition would cost them in the elections. Over the past two years first the BCP and then the BPF left the coalition UDC amid disputes over the allocation of seats within the coalition and Boko’s leadership style.
It was expected that the opposition parties would split the opposition vote. This proved not to matter. Indeed, it is possible that the opposition parties ate into BDP support more by putting up multiple candidates because they attracted different groups of voters.
Why the BDP fell
The reasons for the BDP’s diminished popularity are clear. Most voters believe that the country has been moving in the wrong direction. They worry about high unemployment, especially among young adults, including graduates. Inflation is a problem, especially food prices.
The whiff of corruption and self-enrichment has enveloped the BDP and President Masisi’s family in particular. This year the economy is in the doldrums. Government revenues depend on diamond sales. Low diamond prices have compounded the government’s fiscal crisis. Government employees and contractors are being paid late. The BDP had lost its reputation for successful governance.
There is some evidence that support for the opposition parties solidified during the election campaign itself. BDP leaders said that the country was broke. Many voters appear to have held the BDP responsible. The BDP appeared devoid of ideas. The president himself appeared to be behaving more and more autocratically. The voters’ reaction was summarised in the effective slogan of the BPF: “Ke nako”, now is the time.
The opposition parties squeezed the BDP from three sides. The UDC challenged it most strongly in Gaborone and most of the towns around the capital. Many of these constituencies had been lost by the UDC to the BDP in 2019. In 2024, the UDC won them back handsomely. Many of these urban voters have now changed their votes in several consecutive elections.
The BCP consolidated its regional support bases in the north of the country and around the former mining town of Selebi Pikwe. It also picked up some other seats – such as Kgatleng West – by very narrow margins.
The bedrock of BDP support from independence was the former Central District, where the Khama family – the preeminent family in Botswana – has wielded considerable influence from its base in Serowe.
Sir Seretse Khama founded the BDP and was the first president of Botswana. The third president, Festus Mogae, came from Serowe. He was succeeded by Seretse Khama’s son Ian Khama, who was president from 2008 to 2018.
After stepping down, Ian Khama fell out with his successor, Masisi. In 2019, Ian Khama formed the BPF. Facing legal prosecution, Khama fled to South Africa after the 2019 elections. In September of this year, he returned dramatically to Botswana and embarked on an energetic and aggressive campaign against Masisi, mobilising his supporters around the single issue of deposing Masisi.
Although the BPF won only five parliamentary seats and less than 10% of the vote, it played an important role in undermining the BDP’s historical support base.
What the UDC victory means
What does the UDC victory mean for Botswana? The UDC is a coalition of centre-left parties: the Botswana National Front and the smaller Alliance for Progressives and Botswana People’s Party. The defeated BDP was a broadly centre-right party.
The UDC’s manifesto includes bold – and populist – commitments to the delivery of rapid economic growth and job creation, a substantial increase in the minimum wage and substantial increases in public expenditure on healthcare and social programmes.
In his first press conference as president, President Boko reiterated many of these commitments in detail. This was rash, perhaps revealing his inexperience. Rather than acknowledge the challenges of government, he further fuelled expectations.
The new government has inherited a fiscal and looming economic crisis. It will prove very difficult to achieve many of the promises set out in the manifesto and reiterated by Boko in his press conference.
Botswana not only has a new governing party. It also has a new opposition. President Boko will face strong opposition from the BCP, which has talented MPs on its benches.
The UDC’s parliamentary majority disguises its small and fragile support base. The UDC won only 39% of the vote. Even a small swing of 5% of the overall vote from the UDC would cost the new governing party its parliamentary majority.
In this election, the BDP’s share of the vote fell by 23 percentage points. The UDC would do well to bear in mind the wrath of the electorate. DM