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The Decline and Fall Of the American Empire

It should come as no surprise that 2024 is proving to be a watershed. The greatest year in the history of the collective act of blind hope – which is democracy – is best encapsulated by paraphrasing Lenin; there are decades where nothing happens and weeks when decades happen.

The attempted assassination of Donald Trump at the weekend is yet another extraordinary cameo moment. But what does it all mean for the most powerful country on earth, and indeed for the rest of us? Perhaps it is as simple as this; 2024 will be yet another seminal moment in the decline and fall of the American empire.

In The History of the Decline and Fall of The Roman Empire, Edward Gibbon luridly evokes the Rome of 408 AD, when the armies of the Goths prepared to descend upon the city. The marks of imperial decadence appeared not only in grotesque displays of public opulence and waste but also in the collapse of faith in reason and science.

The people of Rome, Gibbon writes, fell prey to “a puerile superstition” promoted by astrologers and to soothsayers who claimed “to read in the entrails of victims the signs of future greatness and prosperity.”

Rome, argues Gibbon, did not collapse because of the decadence of the emperors, but in the decadence of all Romans, and indeed in the collapse thereby of the system which the Romans had created to elect their leaders.

Rome therefore did not fall because its emperors managed it badly; it collapsed because Romans stopped being able, in their collective systems and structures of self-governance, to elect candidates who were meritocratically capable of doing the job.

The emperors were incapable of running the empire – usually because of old age, advanced conditions of delusional narcissism or both.

Empires – and America is as much an empire as Rome – tend to decadence.

As James Traub has written in Foreign Policy, perhaps in a democracy the distinctive feature of decadence is not debauchery, but terminal self-absorption — the loss of the capacity for collective action, the belief in common purpose, even the acceptance of a common form of reasoning.

“We listen to necromancers who prophesy great things while they lead us into disaster. We sneer at the idea of a ‘public’ and hold our fellow citizens in contempt. We think anyone who doesn’t pursue self-interest is a fool”.

Herein, the social compact and structures disintegrate, not because of the Donald Trumps, but because of the Donald Trumps in all Americans. Decadence, in short, describes a cultural, moral and spiritual disorder — the Donald Trump in us.

Politics, in this reading of history, is a consequence of society – a corollary of our own best and worst attributes. Rarely has that been clearer than it was on Saturday night.

America is staring into the abyss.

The reprehensible attempted assassination of Trump will have profound reverberations for US democracy. Within seconds of being blanketed by Secret Service agents, Trump was yelling “fight, fight, fight” to the crowd.

The instantly ubiquitous photo of him pumping his fist against the backdrop of the Stars and Stripes will become the emblem of his campaign.

America has been, for the past few decades, a bifurcated, polarised society incapable of communicating across societal fissures. Now it hovers on the brink of all-out cultural, if not civil, war.

Within the construct of a society where people tend towards trust rather than conspiracy, people would wait for the facts before jumping to conclusions about the shooting. However America, in 2024, is not such a place. It is riven by self-interest and a loss of common humanity.

After the shooting, two Republicans vying to be Trump’s vice-presidential pick blamed Democrats for inciting hatred against Trump. The recently confirmed candidate, Ohio senator JD Vance, claimed that Biden’s campaign rhetoric “led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination”.

South Carolina senator Tim Scott said Democrats’ “inflammatory rhetoric puts lives at risk.”

Elon Musk, owner of X, where these statements were posted, waded into the swamp, speculating on how the shooter got so close. He suggested it was “either extreme incompetence or deliberate”.

Many on the left quickly claimed the shooting was staged or a false flag operation to boost Trump’s election chances. However, no senior Democratic official has supported these rumours. The suspected shooter, 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, did not provide clear motives. Though a registered Republican and gun enthusiast, he had donated to a pro-Democratic group. It’s likely, as with most US assassins, that Crooks acted alone and was delusional.

A democratic society becomes decadent when its politics – its fundamental means of adjudication – becomes morally and intellectually corrupt. Judging by the depravity and pitiful spectacle which is this election – from a stuttering, stumbling Democrat refusing to let go, to a psychopathic narcissist inciting hate to the point at which he is almost assassinated – the rot runs deep.

It is arguably too late. Even a quasi-idealistic, self-correcting, liberal democracy, armed with the rule of law, can only do so much when faced with social dynamics that are this self-destructive.

America, an empire in a state of decadent, terminal decline, and saddled with this tragic gerontocracy, seems to have little left of a society to save. DM

Comments

francois49 Jul 16, 2024, 11:27 PM

Nice dramatic touch, but rather removed from a more complex reality. And one can hardly equivocate between the foreign affairs successes of Biden and the isolationism of Trump. Nor is the term "empire" quite appropriate in the case if the US. Rather, a world leader still much in demand. There are also no hordes waiting to overrun this "Rome." The US is in a mid-life crisis, yes, but it still has a long life ahead of it.

Carsten Rasch Jul 17, 2024, 09:14 AM

Whether it’s in demand or not has little to do with the fact that the US is in decline. The hordes are not waiting on its borders, they are Americans. Labia hits the nail squarely on its head. The health of any country is revealed by the leaders it produces. Say no more.

louis48 Jul 24, 2024, 06:17 PM

Agree. Self correcting is in their DNA. As recent as the 60's you had the JFK assassination, followed by Bobby Kennedy and MLK amidst civil right riots and Vietnam riots. After 911 they became energy independent in less than 10 years - completely negating its need to be involved in the middle east.

nkadh Jul 17, 2024, 01:32 AM

Good piece. And in reply to Francois le Roux: “foreign affairs successes”? Can he elaborate? Does this include its support of Israel's 'war' in Gaza ‘war’ and its involvement in the Ukraine project, and the actions it is contemplating against China, combined with its failure to address domestic issues ? It is claimed that the US is not an empire - but how else would one characterise its proxy political interventions in conflicts it has helped to foment worldwide, and its expanding military presence in non US territories? The author of this article is right: the US may have a life ahead of it but it’s in its period of decline, as demonstrated by its current and prospective leadership. Which boils down: two old men arguing over golf for 20 minutes in a debacle of a presidential debate. Rome didn’t fall in a day, but fall it did - as will the US, as all empires will....eventually.

Natale Labia Jul 17, 2024, 08:42 PM

Thank you Noor, better expressed than I could have. Glad you enjoyed the piece.

Skinyela Jul 17, 2024, 08:45 AM

"common form of reasoning." Really now!? That form of reasoning does not belong to a democracy. USA has been in decline for a while and you lot are only noticing it now that someone(Trump) who arresting that decline has emerged..., worse part is that you blame the decline on him. He had to work hard to rescue the GOP from traitors and make it great and grand again, and then use it as a tool in the hands of the American people with which to fix their country. Al-qaeda wouldn't have even contemplated attacking the USA if she was lead by someone like Trump, Putin wouldn't have dared attack Ukraine and Hamas would not have attacked Israel. Weak Presidents have caused America so much harm and made her a laughing stock.

Bruce Gordon Jul 17, 2024, 09:52 AM

Regrettably you mistake Trump's rapid acceleration of the decline to arresting it. He empowered Iran to continue building a nuke by abrogating a treaty that stopped it. He coddled Putin and tried to blackmail Zelensky in a way that led Putin to believe he was free to do what he wanted in Ukraine - yes it took Putin time to act as he needed to ensure his military could handle it. Even with that time taken the Russians have so far performed dismally against a country they should have taken in a couple of days on paper.

Bruce Gordon Jul 17, 2024, 09:52 AM

Regrettably you mistake Trump's rapid acceleration of the decline to arresting it. He empowered Iran to continue building a nuke by abrogating a treaty that stopped it. He coddled Putin and tried to blackmail Zelensky in a way that led Putin to believe he was free to do what he wanted in Ukraine - yes it took Putin time to act as he needed to ensure his military could handle it. Even with that time taken the Russians have so far performed dismally against a country they should have taken in a couple of days on paper.

Skinyela Jul 17, 2024, 02:15 PM

Trump is rescuing America and the whole world, From endless wars From terrorism From drugs From illegal immigrants From hyperinflation. A stronger, safer, richer and great America means a stronger, safer, richer and great world.

Skinyela Jul 17, 2024, 05:35 PM

Trump is rescuing America and the whole world, From endless wars From terrorism From drugs From illegal immigrants From hyperinflation. A stronger, safer, richer and great America means a stronger, safer, richer and great world.

ak47.king Jul 18, 2024, 01:15 PM

you really drank the Kool-Aid didn't you! America is following the path of the movie 'Idiocracy'. It was meant to be a comedy, now it's just the inevitable future of the USA.

kate.posthumus Jul 17, 2024, 02:20 PM

I hate to let you know, but the GOP is not great and grand again. Far from it. The American people have not been able to fix their country. Trump is, sadly, a laughing stock to most of the rest of the world. And quite frankly, no woman should ever vote for a man who has so much disdain for half of the world's population. The fact that the land of the Free has to choose between these two old men to be their leader is really very...sad. (IYKYK)

Skinyela Jul 17, 2024, 09:16 PM

The potential of USA is beyond your imagination.

Skinyela Jul 17, 2024, 09:16 PM

The potential of USA is beyond your imagination.

Jack Russell Jul 17, 2024, 09:19 AM

Not sure I agree with you. There seems to have been a long, Left wing Democrat drive to gut the soul of America, to allow the low level "intellectuals", given voice via the wealth that allowed a plethora of new universities, from which to sow their destructive bile. Probably the worst was CRT followed by BLM, LGTBQ, and the rest of the many WOKE cultural weapons. The bright and decent middle of the road people have simply given up, drifted off to pursue their careers, hence the low level of the caliber of so many in politics?

Bruce Gordon Jul 17, 2024, 09:54 AM

Giving people equal rights is a woke cultural weapon? Interesting way of interpreting matters.

Jack Russell Jul 17, 2024, 02:19 PM

A simplistic comment and not the point; suggest you read Douglas Murray's "The War on the West. Put another way, you're not going to give a nutter who wants to kill you a voucher for the local gun shop.

Rod MacLeod Jul 17, 2024, 12:58 PM

Thought I'd play around with your words to give an SA context: "A democratic society becomes decadent when its politics – its fundamental means of adjudication – becomes morally and intellectually corrupt. Judging by the depravity and pitiful spectacle which was our 2024 election – from a stuttering, stumbling Ramaphosa refusing to let go, to a psychopathic narcissist Zuma inciting hate to the point at which he is capable of promoting mass urban riots – the rot runs deep. It is arguably too late. Even a quasi-idealistic, self-correcting, liberal democracy, armed with the rule of law, can only do so much when faced with social dynamics that are this self-destructive. South Africa, not even an empire yet in a state of decadent, terminal decline, and saddled with this tragic gerontocracy, seems to have little left of a society to save."

MICHAEL POWER Jul 17, 2024, 03:08 PM

Great Article. Hard data about the decline of Rome is hard to come by but we do have the 'devalution' of the silver content in the Roman Denaris as a very rough proxy. This was done to pay mounting debts which ultimately reached such a level that they ruined Rome from within. Sound familiar?

Natale Labia Jul 17, 2024, 03:32 PM

Thanks Michael - glad you enjoyed it. Indeed the parallels are eerie, such as monetizing the deficit and another critical proxy; when national interest expense > national defense expenditure then the decline is real.

Skinyela Jul 17, 2024, 05:45 PM

1. Was most of the debt incurred in order to fund military spending? 2. What is the normal % of national interest spending relative to the GDP? 3. Defense spending should be low in a normal country, because war is not normal. If that debt was not incurred in defense and consumption spending, then then it is not a cause for concern that amount servicing it exceeds national defense expenditure.

Johan Buys Jul 17, 2024, 03:52 PM

It would be a mistake to underestimate the US because of the silly politics going on. We lived in the US when 911 happened it was astounding to see the unification, focus and resolve that kicked in within an hour. That attack followed not long after the whole drama about Bush Jnr election and the hanging chits and recounts that were processed with no issues of civil unrest. Whereas 1 in 10 houses on my way to office normally had flags, suddenly every house had at least one. Poke this bear at your peril. As to the “fall of the American empire” : it has some problems but the problems in most of the rest of world are far more significant. With a growing population, net real economic GDP growth, being a net energy exporter, strong legal systems, overwhelming military power, around 2/3 of global corporate profits and statistically irrelevant unemployment, it is pretty strong for a declining empire. A host of nations have aging and declining populations and economic decline mated to impossible to fund social welfare obligations/expectations. Most of Western Europe has big problems ahead within a generation, as has Japan and South Korea. We’re seeing signs of restlessness / change in populations where restless populations are tolerated.

Steve Davidson Jul 17, 2024, 08:45 PM

My usual rationale at times like this is to use the quote that 'the darkest hour is just before dawn' and but I really can't get my head around it at the moment. My only real hope in the world is to look at England but even then it's unlikely that Labour will be able to fix it before the Establishment come back to mess it up again.

Steve Davidson Jul 17, 2024, 08:45 PM

My usual rationale at times like this is to use the quote that 'the darkest hour is just before dawn' and but I really can't get my head around it at the moment. My only real hope in the world is to look at England but even then it's unlikely that Labour will be able to fix it before the Establishment come back to mess it up again.

David Jeannot Jul 18, 2024, 09:40 AM

The argument centres on the opinion that the state of society within the United States of America is sliding into decadence and this is represented by the choice of candidates for both parties. It emphasises that the American public has become too self-absorbed and no longer able to visualise a common goal or collective ideal. Trust in their institutions have eroded and the electorate no longer await facts to make a decision or voice opinions. There is a little bit of Trump (or Biden…) in each of them. This is a complex issue with many different variables at play as mentioned by another commentator but there are a few points worth mentioning. The country, more than any other has an ability to re-invent itself and take an inward look to reflect on her values and ideals. After the Vietnam war, America could have been argued to be in decline as Communism was on a steady march throughout the world and domestic issues plagued the nation. However, the country bounced back thanks to her institutions that gave it flexibility when it mattered. The American public also have an ability to unite when there is a global adversary which used to be the USSR and is today, China. On a macro scale, the US’s economic prowess & economic foundations still account for a quarter of global GDP and America still continues to be the biggest attraction of global talent as their schools, universities and businesses draw in the smartest minds around the world. The US have experienced assassination attempts in their past (Lincoln , JFK, attempt on Reagan) which has rocked the nation but not derailed it. What is different today is how technology, social media and a multi-polar world are affecting not just the American public but societies all around the world. My thought is whether the is USA better equipped to deal with these challenges in a noisy, vocal and messy way or are autocratic regimes...

dexmoodl Jul 19, 2024, 07:30 AM

great article as always like your opinions. hopefully it is not because it aligns with me. I think the start of the decline was with the rolling back of the reforms of FDR by both republican and democrat presidents .

Jul 21, 2024, 08:41 AM

Great article, particularly the line, “empires tend to decadence.” When an empire is ascending efficiency and austerity rules. To take a metric like waste the US, with 4% of the world’s population, produces 12% of its waste. China, with 17.2% of world population produces 15.5%. India, 18% and 12% respectively. Ray Dalio, in his book, “The Changing World Order, Why Nations Succeed and Fail,” tracks economic history over the last 500 years beginning with the Portuguese/Spanish, Dutch, British, U.S. and now Chinese empires. The US is clearly in the decline, in fact RD is concerned that the indicator for the US to fall into internal military strife is over 50% - DT’s attempted assassination can be seen as part of this trend, not just an isolated incident by a deluded crackpot, although that might be its immediate manifestation. China can be seen as being on the up and up and India is appearing on the horizon. Turning to Africa’s southern tip SA maybe ending 30 years of SA decadence. The progressive Gucci leftist parties, and organised criminal syndicates/business forums appear hell bent on trying to prolong the decadent era, notwithstanding their ironic self styled labelling, by trying to wrest back the levers of power, whereas the ANC centrists, DA and other parties have just embarked, to a greater or lesser extent, depending on the minister, to a clean up. In SA hope has been given another boost. Onward to the municipal elections in 2 years time!

graemebirddurban Jul 21, 2024, 09:38 AM

Spot on. How can a society that offers two such poor choices of leadership and where the majority of people place the ownership of guns as a non negotiable right, be anything but far past its sell by date.

louis48 Jul 24, 2024, 06:10 PM

Not so fast. Public opinion polls going back as far as 1880 will show you that people believed that US in decline. Yet the US is the only country in human history that has exited every decade in a stronger military and economic position than it entered it. It has now done so for 15 decades in a row.