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As Africa undergoes massive urbanisation, local governments must plan for sustainable household energy transition

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Professor Josephine Kaviti Musango holds the Gender for Energy Security (Gens) Trilateral Chair at the School of Public Leadership at Stellenbosch University (SU). This article is based, in part, on her recent inaugural lecture at SU.

Achieving sustainable energy for all is an immediate and future challenge in urban homes, especially in Africa where massive urban expansion is expected to take place between 2030 and 2050. In some African countries, more than 90% of the urban population live in slums.

The current and expected change in urbanisation in Africa presents a complex challenge to urban policy — and decision-makers in energy transition pathways. Jonathan Rutherford and Olivier Coutard describe energy transition as “a radical, systemic and managed change towards the sustainable or effective provision and use of energy”.

The COP26 meeting has seen discussions on energy transition at the global and national levels, and this begs the question as to how urban planners will integrate energy in urban planning to support household energy transition.

People migrating from rural to urban areas in search of better economic opportunities, unfortunately, end up in slums where they have limited access to basic services such as housing, water, sanitation and energy. Data from the World Bank shows that in 2018, 54% of the urban population in sub-Saharan Africa lived in slums. It’s quite striking because in some countries more than 90% of the urban population live in slums.

Empirical evidence also shows the majority of households in informal settlements are female-headed, requiring consideration of gender issues in debates and decisions about energy transition.  

In South Africa, the changing urban dynamics challenge urban planners on how to integrate energy in urban planning. Currently, household energy planning overlooks demand-led assessments. The implication is that household energy services are not clearly understood to support urban energy planning. Household energy transition has therefore evolved as homogeneous grid-connected electricity or heterogenous designs in informal settlements. As such, urban households remain energy insecure even after being connected to the grid and continue to rely on unclean fuel technologies because they don’t receive the required energy services.

As more people move to urban areas, the transformation that relates to energy transitions is expected to happen in these spaces to meet global commitments associated with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These include providing “affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all” (SDG7), “building sustainable cities and communities” (SDG11), as well as limiting global warming to 1.5°C in accordance with the Paris Agreement of 2015.

It is on this basis that alternative energy and renewable energy has become relevant in conversations about urban household energy transition. Providing scientific support to urban energy planning requires consideration of how energy transition interventions affect the economy, society and the environment.

Systems approach

So, how can energy transition be integrated into urban planning?

The answer may lie in a systems approach to sustainable energy transition (Saseta) that can be utilised to support sustainable energy transition assessment in urban areas. This framework considers social, economic and environmental factors concerning sustainable energy transition indicators in a manner that could be customised to and applied in different urban case studies.

The systems approach consists of methods, tools and principles that focus on the interrelatedness of things and seeing them as part of the whole process. One of these is system dynamics which is a “computer-aided approach for strategy and policy design. The main goal of system dynamics is to help people make better decisions when confronted with complex dynamic systems”, such as urban energy transition.

In their book Tackling Complexity: A Systemic Approach for Decision Makers (2014), Gilbert Probst and Andrea Bassi offer several systems thinking tools that local governments and other stakeholders can use to make informed decisions on urban energy transition. These include: 

  • Indicators: They can help policy- and decision-makers to understand the magnitude of the problem, and prioritise issues and assess the success of interventions. These indicators need to be cross-cutting;
  • Causal loop diagrams: These diagrams are maps of a system representing the issue analysed or how we believe the world works. Such a diagram helps us to identify causal relations between key indicators and how they influence the problem in a feedback loop mechanism. It helps create a shared understanding of the issues and their systemic characteristics;
  • Scenarios: These are expectations of possible future events and help to support integrated decision making by exploring possible future paths and trends, analysing its behaviour and drivers of change; and
  • Simulation: This is a creation of a quantitive model that mimics a real-world system, and helps to quantitatively assess scenarios and provide projections of possible future patterns that may emerge.

Combining these tools with a multi-stakeholder approach helps to leverage the strength of each of these tools to make them more effective.

In a recent study on gendered energy transition in the Drakenstein Municipality in Paarl, I showed that it is indeed possible to apply Saseta to a real-world situation. Ten indicators were identified — three economic, three societal and four environmental. A causal loop diagram also illustrated that household consumption influences the gross value added, and ultimately increases the demand for energy services. This has implications for energy security.

Additionally, when household energy consumption increases, the energy costs also rise. This eventually affects the affordability of energy and reduces energy consumption. Furthermore, an increase in household energy consumption intensifies socio-environmental impacts such as air emissions and health costs related to the use of unclean fuels, which increases the energy costs when externalities are accounted for, thereby reducing the energy consumption. A simulation model showed that by 2040, formal electrified household consumption increases by 30.3% while informal electrified consumption increases by 19.8%.

Key insights from the study in the Drakenstein Municipality relate to understanding the context in which urban energy transition is taking place, developing relevant indicators to support policy and providing insights into interventions that produce counterintuitive results.

The policy implication for urban energy transition planning in Africa, including South Africa, is to consider the systemic nature of the interactions between energy technology development and sustainable development. We need approaches that provide decision support to urban planners and policymakers for monitoring indicators related to reliable and sustainable energy and to building sustainable cities and communities in South Africa and on the continent. DM

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