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The Art of War: Cyril Ramaphosa needs to use the current climate to his advantage

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Oscar van Heerden is a scholar of International Relations (IR), where he focuses on International Political Economy, with an emphasis on Africa, and SADC in particular. He completed his PhD and Masters studies at the University of Cambridge (UK). His undergraduate studies were at Turfloop and Wits. He is currently a Deputy Vice-Chancellor at Fort Hare University and writes in his personal capacity.

There’s a war going on in the Cabinet, and in the leadership of the ANC. The quicker Cyril Ramaphosa marshals his forces and acts with military precision, the better for all.

War is the continuation of politics by other means, said Carl von Clausewitz, the 19th century Prussian general and military theorist. So, what can we learn from him? All this talk of a possible Cabinet reshuffle got me thinking. 

The Wikipedia entry on Von Clausewitz do tell us that:

Clausewitz’s thinking is often described as Hegelian because of his dialectical method; but, although he was probably personally acquainted with Hegel, there remains debate as to whether or not Clausewitz was in fact influenced by him. He stressed the dialectical interaction of diverse factors, noting how unexpected developments unfolding under the “fog of war” (i.e., in the face of incomplete, dubious, and often completely erroneous information and high levels of fear, doubt, and excitement) call for rapid decisions by alert commanders”.

In other words, these unexpected developments unfolding under the fog of war, today represented as the Covid-19 pandemic, does speak to incomplete, dubious and often completely erroneous information with a healthy dose of fear, doubt, and in some instances excitement; it calls for rapid decisions by alert commanders. How alert are you, Mr President? After all, it is under this fog of war that it seems some in your Cabinet are undermining you, contradicting you and if I may say so myself, dictating to you about which course of action is required. Who is in charge?

What is the strategic way forward for President Cyril Ramaphosa, given the clear signs that he is still very much under pressure from within his party and, from the looks of it, from within his Cabinet as well?

Well, Von Clausewitz teaches us that:

“A prince or general who knows exactly how to organise his war according to his object and means, who does neither too little nor too much, gives by that the greatest proof of his genius. But the effects of this talent are exhibited not so much by the invention of new modes of action, which might strike the eye immediately, as in the successful final result of the whole. It is the exact fulfilment of silent suppositions, it is the noiseless harmony of the whole action which we should admire, and which only makes itself known in the total result.”

On the one hand, he needs to strongly encourage the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) to continue with its current trajectory in terms of arrests etc. Silent supposition one, if you like.

It’s no surprise that ANC Secretary-General Ace Magashule has come up with this nonsense of reinstating two key ANC people involved in the VBS saga because, in effect, they know that by not doing so they were opening a can of worms for all the others that have been involved and all the other municipalities that contributed to VBS corruption.

It is just a desperate measure to try to say “you are innocent until proven guilty”, but the NPA is going to have to pursue the matter. Prosecutions are going to be successful, that’s how the law works – what we can say is that the president needs to ensure that Shamila Batohi and Hermione Cronjé actually expedite the prosecutorial processes because it’s going far too slowly.

What needs to happen is basically on three levels. The one is that they need to expedite the arrests and prosecutorial processes of those involved in State Capture. Second, they need to ensure that there is consequence management after the Zondo Commission’s report, which I think will be at the end of 2020; even though we have lost time with Covid-19, we can’t let it drag on indefinitely. Third, we need to pursue the process of bringing back the Guptas to South Africa, no matter how difficult it is, because we need to send a clear message that never again will it happen where people from outside the country can just come in and dictate how things should happen in South Africa. We made an example of Bell Pottinger, did we not?

Minister Ronald Lamola needs to get his act together and make sure that he manages this process well, including issues of the judiciary and the Bench. Chief Justice Mogoeng Mogoeng pronouncing on overtly political matters and other matters such as Western Cape Chief Justice John Hlope, and the kind of Mickey Mouse games he’s playing, does not help. All this is simply bringing the Bench into disrepute – it needs to be shut down very quickly if we want people to have respect for this arm of the state, as they do, for now.

On the political side, Ramaphosa needs to make sure that the question becomes: what to do about the opposition within his Cabinet and the opposition within the head office of his own party? For now, we will call these oppositional forces the radical economic transformation (RET) types.

Ramaphosa needs the right team around him in the Cabinet to make sure the requisite leadership is provided in this current Covid-19 pandemic crisis, but also post-Covid-19 in terms of the economy. How do we fix it, how do we create jobs on the one hand and get a growing economy on the other? He must have a Cabinet reshuffle – there has to be one because we also know that the way he constituted this current Cabinet was through compromises and all kinds of pressures. Silent supposition two.

A Cabinet reshuffle is one of the strategies to deal with some of the obvious opposition that he is having and in no small measure from Lindiwe Sisulu, who blatantly undermines his current administration. She does not deserve to remain in Cabinet. She has been there since Thabo Mbeki and cannot claim it is unfair. A few others must also be shown the door,.

Then, the second component of his cleanup campaign must be his party.

How do you deal with these people? Naturally, there’s a link between dealing with them and the prosecutorial services or processes and that must never be missed. They need to be put on trial and they need to be prosecuted. If they are found not guilty, great, but if they are found guilty, they will go to prison. And that is where Batohi and company are disappointing us. It has now been a year that Lamola has given the NPA to sort out their capacity issues, he’s made more money available, he has put a budget towards training and  putting various processes in place.

They can’t use that as an excuse because these things are so urgent that they need to run in parallel – you need to get capacity to bring in the right people, but at the same time, you need to investigate, get the files in order to make sure you have the evidence so you can have successful prosecutions. It must surely go hand-in-hand, you can’t work four, five, six, seven years just to get the infrastructure and people right, then think you are going to now do prosecutions. It would be too late.

Mr President, you will lose elections and you are going to lose the confidence of the voters, and that’s the reality. And so, if this is the sort of strategy needed going forward, the big question becomes: does Ramaphosa have the balls and does he have the requisite kitchen Cabinet to assist him in executing this plan? What will happen at the National General Council of the ANC when it eventually happens? Will the RET guys succeed in casting aspersions on Ramaphosa’s leadership role and who knows how that will play out in the upcoming local government elections?

Mr President, learn from Von Clausewitz because the RET guys are motivated by his three dialectical approaches, namely the trinity, primordial violence, hatred and enmity. Allow me to explain: we have seen that political killings are a no-brainer for some, especially in a number of provinces, hence primordial violence to get their way. We have seen hatred,  because even though they had lost fairly in a democratic process at Nasrec, they are still filled with hate, hence they continue to pursue a programme to undermine you and all your efforts. All resulting in enmity from them, meaning a state of active opposition or hostility.

This we learn again from Von Clausewitz: “The first is his dialectical thesis: ‘War is thus an act of force to compel our enemy to do our will.’ The second, often treated as Clausewitz’s ‘bottom line’, is in fact merely his dialectical antithesis: ‘War is merely the continuation of politics with other means.’ The synthesis of his dialectical examination of the nature of war is his famous ‘trinity’, saying that war is ‘a fascinating trinity … composed of primordial violence, hatred, and enmity, which are to be regarded as a blind natural force; the play of chance and probability, within which the creative spirit is free to roam; and its element of subordination, as an instrument of policy, which makes it subject to pure reason.”

We have a crisis on our hands. Covid-19 is reaching its peak and the death toll is rising exponentially. Your government must try to minimise these effects and, at the same time, pressure is being brought to bear on you to fix the ailing economy. Mr President, as the military strategist will tell you, confusion and pressure are nothing to be afraid of; on the contrary, they must be embraced and used to your advantage.

Your leadership to date, before and during this crisis, has been nothing short of exemplary and your popularity has gone through the roof. Use this to your advantage, Mr President, announce in due time the Cabinet reshuffle and give a blow to your opponents in the executive branch. What do you have to lose? Learn from Von Clausewitz.

As head of state, you can have a conversation with NPA bosses and enquire as to what progress they are making with regards to pursuing wrongdoers. It is what you promised the electorate when we voted for you, to clean house and arrest those that have actively participated in State Capture and corrupt activities. Surely, this cannot constitute political interference,?

If you thought the war stopped after you won at Nasrec, you’d better think again, sir. The RET types are not sleeping and they are not sitting by idly, waiting for the NPA to come knocking. No sir, they are plotting your downfall. For them this is war. It is the only way, get rid of you, take control of the high office and make sweeping changes at the NPA, justice and police. Where have I seen this happen before? Oh yes, from Jacob Zuma, and they will do the same again. They have the blueprint.

They must be stopped. This is war, sir, and the quicker you and those around you see it, the better. Don’t disappoint Von Clausewitz. DM

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