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Ask us anything about… the African Peace Mission to Ukraine and Russia

Ask us anything about… the African Peace Mission to Ukraine and Russia

This week, senior political journalist, Queenin Masuabi, and foreign policy journalist and analyst, Peter Fabricius, will be answering your questions about the African Peace Mission to Ukraine and Russia. Don’t miss the opportunity to ask them your burning questions. 

SUBMIT YOUR QUESTION BELOW
 

Claire Taylor: I’m interested to know why the South African government lied about being aware of the air strikes on Kyiv during their visit, when they ‘proceeded to a bomb shelter’ to continue their meeting, albeit ol’ Vinny claimed the opposite.

– Peter Fabricius

It’s also a bit of a mystery to me why the President’s spokesperson denied the missile attacks and claimed that it was deliberate misinformation (presumably he meant the reports of missile attacks were designed to discredit the Russians). Maybe he was just in Spin Overdrive.
 

David Willers: Was the visit prompted and encouraged by Russian businessmen as alleged? And, it was almost invisibly reported abroad, and when it was mentioned it was in terms of Africa wanting to have a profile in the international game.

– Peter Fabricius

Was the war prompted and encouraged by Russian businessmen as alleged? I have read those accounts and don’t really accept them. It is true that the mission seems to have been initiated by Jean-Yves Ollivier of the Brazzaville Foundation, about whom many allegations have been made, including arms deals in Africa in exchange for hostage releases, etc. He also has good relations with Ivor Ichikowitz, the SA businessman who owns Paramount which makes some military equipment. I think that in effect South Africa ‘hijacked’ the mission and Ramaphosa became its de facto leader. I don’t think he was acting as a Russian proxy, whatever his views on the war may be. To David Willers’s second point about the perception that this was Africans wanting to have a higher profile. Well, maybe, but most of the African leaders were motivated by concerns about the impact of the war on this continent – food shortages, higher prices, etc. I think for Ramaphosa this had a lot to do with trying to deflect criticism of SA’s pro-Russian stance on the war.
 
 

Jean Rust: Does SA carry any diplomatic weight in brokering peace agreements in Africa and the rest of the world?

– Peter Fabricius

I think SA carries some diplomatic weight in Africa – or used to at least – since it did help broker peace deals in countries like the DRC and Burundi. And Sudan. Beyond Africa I don’t think SA has much influence. In principle though it was not a bad idea for a mission of African leaders to propose peace in Europe as the traffic usually goes the other way. But it’s doubtful it will have much impact.
 

Ndumiso Mtshali: This morning I’ve just realised that the African Peace Mission is almost the same as what Neville Chamberlain, the UK prime minister around 1938, did when the Nazis invaded the Sudetenland. He attempted to negotiate with Adolf Hitler to halt any further invasion of other countries’ sovereign territory. In the end, Hitler went on to invade Poland and then WW2 started.
Would you agree with this view?

– Peter Fabricius

An interesting analogy. The African Peace Mission was not nearly as explicit as that of Chamberlain. Ramaphosa and Co did not ask Ukrainian President Zelensky to accept Russia’s occupation of a large chunk of Ukraine, while Chamberlain basically persuaded Czechoslovakia to give the Sudetenland to Germany. But Zelenksy’s concern was that by calling for ‘de-escalation’ of the war, the African leaders were effectively asking for the same thing as Chamberlain asked of Czechoslovakia, because to stop fighting Russia now would effectively cede large parts of eastern and southern Ukraine to Russia.

Janah Ncube: I understand President Lula of Brazil also has a plan to bring together about 20 middle-power countries. Do you know if RSA and the Africa group are coordinating as they seem to have done with China?

– Peter Fabricius

There are several peace plans on the table, including, as you say, from President Lula and from China. I don’t believe that the African group has formally coordinated with the others, though Ramaphosa did say in Kyiv and St Petersburg that the 10-point plan of the African group was compatible with others.
 
 

With billions of dollars being made by the military industrialists in Washington, and the US and Ukraine not willing to negotiate or make any concessions with Russia, or at least willing to promise no Nato allegiance, what hope of peace is there?

– Peter Fabricius

Though no doubt weapons manufacturers are making money, I really don’t think that is what is keeping this war going. As Ukraine and its Western allies have said, if the war stops now and the West stops helping Ukraine, at best Russia will retain possession of the Ukrainian territory it now occupies, at worst it could take more. I doubt that the West promising not to admit Ukraine to Nato would make much difference now.
 

Brian Doyle: We know the mission was a failure, but were there any good outcomes achieved?

– Peter Fabricius

Well, no one expected peace to break out immediately, so it’s hard to write it off as a complete failure yet. Though it’s hard to see what it might achieve. There were some positives in that Ramaphosa and the other African leaders were taken to Bucha, the town where Russian troops committed atrocities. And Ramaphosa delivered a few necessary messages to Putin. (see earlier below)
 

Sally: Kyiv came under attack shortly after the African leaders arrived. How do you interpret that?

– Queenin Masuabi

There was a lot of controversy surrounding that incident as it was assumed that Russia would not strike with the knowledge that African leaders (and his key ally, South Africa) would be in Kyiv. Presidency spokesperson Vincent Magwenya denied that there were explosions, which led to him being called the ‘biggest liar in the world’ by the Kyiv Post. This had not been anticipated and it almost seemed like the Russians wanted to send a strong message about their stance.
 
– Peter Fabricius

There was great controversy over that. Ramaphosa’s spokesperson, Vincent Magwenya, denied there had been an attack at all, though later Ramaphosa himself confirmed it. It was probably just a routine attack, but the fact that Russia did not hold fire while the African leaders were there suggested poor coordination by Russia – or contempt for the mission.
 

Fred Levy: What makes Cyril Ramaphosa and the ANC think they are relevant in this war, when they play both sides of the issue and have consistently failed to call the Russians out as the aggressors who started it by invading a sovereign state?

– Queenin Masuabi

South Africa, just like other countries around the world, has largely been affected by the war. In Ramaphosa’s speech during the African Peace Mission, he explained that the price of commodities, particularly grain, fertiliser and fuel, have all gone up as a consequence of the ongoing conflict.
 
 

Zamisile Langa: Aside from the delays (askies), do you think the mission served purpose? Were Zelensky and Putin attentive and open to discussion? Do they care for the African view or only the Western and US opinions on this matter? What do you make of Dirco’s response regarding the hostage situation? Was it treated as such?

– Peter Fabricius

It does not seem to have achieved much purpose, though there may be a follow-up. Both Zelensky and Putin seemed rather dismissive of some of the points raised by Ramaphosa and the other leaders, for different reasons. I thought it was quite useful that Ramaphosa, who has been accused of being pro-Russian (a) Called this a ‘war’ for the first time (not just a conflict); (b) Called for the abducted Ukrainian children to be returned from Russia to Ukraine; and (c) Called for the UN Charter to be respected.
 

Beulah Misrole-Louw: How did accusations of racism even enter this mission?

– Queenin Masuabi

The allegations of racism from Polish officials towards South African journalists and PPS personnel stemmed from how they were treated. A black woman was strip-searched at Chopin Airport despite having a diplomatic passport. I was swabbed for drugs by a male guard at the airport and my other colleagues were also treated like criminals for no apparent reason.
 

Beulah Misrole-Louw: How is it even possible for SA to think it can broker peace between Ukraine and Russia when it clearly already took sides through past ‘friendship’, BRICS and public statements?

– Queenin Masuabi

South Africa’s long-standing friendship has really put the country in a tight spot with its Western allies. However, because it has maintained a non-aligned stance it has been a mechanism to show that it will be impartial when it comes to peace talks. In fact, analysts have said the 10-point plan presented by President Cyril Ramaphosa favours Ukraine more than it does Russia.
 

William Kelly: Did the government ever offer an official explanation for what happened to you? Or off the record? Was an apology ever issued and would you accept a similar invitation in the future (as opposed to making your own travel arrangements)? 

– Queenin Masuabi

The government has really been nonchalant about what happened to journalists and has made no attempt to organise a debriefing session. Not a single statement has been issued about the matter.
 
 

Brian Craig: Can we believe the presidential spokesman when it seems he has either lied or misled the media about matters related to this trip?

– Queenin Masuabi

Presidency spokesperson Vincent Magwenya will have to provide clarity on why he ignored news reports about the explosions in Kyiv. It was a serious blunder because it seemed as though SA was trying to sanitise the Russians by denying that there were explosions.
 
 

Greg Deegan: Is there any information regarding the type of weaponry in the 12 containers?

– Peter Fabricius

I don’t think the type of weaponry in the 12 containers is publicly known. Maybe the police, etc should reveal. It seems at least there were automatic or semi-automatic weapons.
 
 

Mike Monson: Did the African Peace Mission members hold the view that Russia, as the aggressor, is the perpetrator and cause of the war, or did they claim to be neutral and without condemnation or accusation of either Russia or Ukraine? What impact does their attitude have on their credibility?

– Peter Fabricius

No, the peace mission did not state that Russia, as the aggressor, was the perpetrator and cause of the war. Ramaphosa called for ‘de-escalation’ in general, which implied that both sides were equally to blame. This was a big problem for Zelensky, I believe.
 

Letlhage Mochadibane: What was the real mandate and reason for the mission? How was this mission funded? And what were the criteria used to compose the mission?

– Peter Fabricius

The mission was apparently originally conceived by the Brazzaville Foundation, a non-governmental organisation based in London and founded by an interesting character called Jean-Yves Ollivier who has made other peace missions. Probably most African leaders got involved because of the impact of the war on Africa, such as food shortages and rising prices.
 

Velwano Velile Mpikashe: Any diplomatic reason (besides that provided by the Polish government) that the security and journalists’ aircraft was grounded in Warsaw?

– Queenin Masuabi

If there was a diplomatic reason I would say it’s South Africa’s relationship with Russia that could have been at the centre of the debacle. It might be that journalists were collateral damage in a diplomatic row which has arisen because of South Africa’s ‘non-aligned’ stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While Pretoria maintains it is neutral on the conflict, it is perceived by the West as being pro-Russia, which has compromised South Africa’s position with the US. The US and Poland are longtime allies with strong bilateral ties, and the Polish government has been a supporter of a continued American military and economic presence in Europe.
There were a number of factors at play, but it felt as if the Poles were trying to prevent another Lady R situation, in the belief that SA was trying to deliver weapons to Russia.
 
– Peter Fabricius

The large security contingent ‘was apparently grounded’. One could add that it’s a bit of a mystery why the journalists were not allowed off the plane.

 

Diane Cameron: Did we achieve anything during this Peace Mission or was it a total waste of time and money?

– Queenin Masuabi

The aim was to present Africa’s proposal for finding a way to end the war. President Cyril Ramaphosa presented the plan to both Russia and Ukraine, but whether they will consider Africa’s peace proposal is another story altogether.

Tony Westbrook: What made you think (a) That it would be well organised (b) That South Africans travelling with government officials would be welcome in view of their pro-Russia stance, and (c) That it would not be a complete waste of time?

– Queenin Masuabi

The Presidency is known to invite journalists on trips and there have never been mishaps of this magnitude. That is why there were no doubts that this trip would be a success. It is also not unusual for heads of state to take on missions of this nature. For example, former president Thabo Mbeki headed the African Union’s high-level implementation panel which helped ensure a peaceful solution to Sudan’s conflict.

Lisbeth Scalabrini Herlem: What exactly was inside the 12 crates, and why 120 security officials? Had the above been declared to the Polish authorities?

– Queenin Masuabi

The South African government, as well as the SAPS PPS, had been in meetings with Polish officials two weeks before the trip to discuss the cargo they would be travelling with. So, the Poles were well aware that Ramaphosa’s security would be in possession of weapons. The President is said to have had a bigger security contingent because he was heading into a war zone.

 

Brian Desbois: I don’t know if we’ll ever get to the bottom of this, but I can understand that not all people or arms permits were ‘correct’. But why weren’t those whose credentials were in order not allowed to disembark? Also, why were the media on board not allowed to join the presidential party, or was their paperwork not in order? And importantly, if not, why not?

– Queenin Masuabi

All journalists aboard had both Russian and Schengen visas. However, they were treated as if they were a part of the President’s security because they were travelling with them. The President’s jet could not accommodate all of the journalists, while the SAA flight had ample space. It was quite bizarre that everyone was held back – this is when suspicions of racism and the issue around a possible diplomatic fallout started becoming more evident.
 
– Peter Fabricius

Although I don’t know for sure about the other missions, I heard Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema had about a dozen security, that Senegalese President Macky Sall had about the same and that Comorian President Azali Assoumani only had about three or four. I believe they did accompany their presidents into Ukraine. The fact that Ramaphosa was not on the plane isn’t the point. The security officials and weapons were transported separately but were supposed to join Ramaphosa in Poland to protect him going into Ukraine and, presumably, Russia.

 

From Sandra Goldberg: Did Putin refuse not to come in August? What can we glean from the conversation regarding that?

– Queenin Masuabi

An announcement was made at the press conference in Kyiv that President Cyril Ramaphosa would have bilateral talks with Putin in St Petersburg to discuss the issue of his (non-) attendance at the BRICS Summit. The bilateral meeting never took place because the programme changed, so we still are not sure how South Africa will be dealing with this conundrum.
 
– Peter Fabricius

Queenin is right that Ramaphosa’s spokesperson, Vincent Magwenya, ordinarily said that the one-on-one meeting between Ramaphosa and Putin had been cancelled, but later he said it had in fact taken place. I hear that Putin, as you suggest, refused Ramaphosa’s request not to attend the BRICS Summit because of the ICC arrest warrant. So it seems that the problem for SA still has to be resolved.

 

From Robert Hillier: The visit went unmentioned by mainstream media here in the UK, not referenced by anyone anywhere. How did it play in South Africa? Who is the audience for this? Are there any votes in it?

– Peter Fabricius

The war in Ukraine and the South African government’s attitude to it are big issues in South Africa, even though foreign policy issues do not normally generate very much interest. There are some analysts who believe it might even be an issue in next year’s general election. The main opposition Democratic Alliance has strongly criticised the ANC government’s pro-Russian stance and has itself strongly supported Ukraine. Democratic Party leader John Steeenhuisen has visited Ukraine to show his support.
 

From Linda Halliday: What were the intended outcomes of the mission? Were they achieved and how do we know?
Why was the SA delegation so big? (we hear >100 people).
What arms were on board and for what purpose were these taken?
How is it that SA is so highly regulated (we know what it means to need original documents), yet we didn/t manage that?
Why were Polish authorities deemed racist for insisting on the correct documentation?

– Queenin Masuabi

The intention was to put forward a proposal which would assist Russia and Ukraine reach a negotiated settlement and which would see the end to the war. President Cyril Ramaphosa presented a 10-point plan to both heads of state. Whether either country will take this seriously is still to be seen. Ramaphosa’s security detail was larger because he was entering a warzone and there seemed to be a belief that he needed to beef up his security. The weapons would be carried by the security personnel present. Presidential Protection Services head Major-General Wally Rhoode said they had been in meetings with Polish officials and did not think that bringing copies would be an issue. It was the manner in which journalists and security were treated more than it was about the documents, which indicated that there could be systemic racism at play.

 

From David Mostert: Is the ‘peace mission’ at taxpayers’ expense, a smokescreen to hide the warm and cordial support the ANC has for Putin’s Special Murderous Operation in Ukraine?

– Peter Fabricius

It’s hard to oppose a peace mission, and the different African leaders participating had different motivations. For a few of them the main concern was how the war is affecting Africa, for instance by pushing up grain prices. For Ramaphosa I think part of the motivation was to deflect criticism SA has received for its rather pro-Russian stance. And to be able to say: ‘Well, I can’t criticise Russia too much because I’m supposed to be a neutral, impartial mediator.’

How will the live chat work?

– Queenin Masuabi

This live chat will take place on Thursday, June 22, 09:00 – 11:00. During this time, my colleague Peter and I will be here, answering your questions as best we can. You can submit your questions in advance in the box above, or join us on Thursday morning to follow along and ask them then. 

 

Can you fill me in on the latest developments on the African Peace Mission?

– Peter Fabricius

Access the latest developments here.
 
 
 
 
 

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