During the autumn and early winter, it is only the southern and eastern coastal areas that receive
significant rainfall. (Photo: iStock) As summer winds down weather forecasters are turning their attention to the looming autumn and winter, and the outlook for South Africa’s southern regions is mixed on this front.
“During the autumn and early winter, it is only the southern and eastern coastal areas that receive significant rainfall. For these areas the southeastern and eastern coastal areas are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, and the southwestern parts below-normal rainfall,” the South African Weather Service said in its monthly Seasonal Climate Watch report.
“Minimum and maximum temperatures are largely expected to be above normal for most parts of SA during the autumn and early winter seasons,” read the report, which looks five months ahead – in this case until the end of July.
Parts of SA’s southeast have been hit by prolonged drought, and the prospect of good seasonal rains will be welcome – though flooding will also be a risk.
“The anticipated above-normal rainfall forecasted during autumn and early winter is likely to increase dam levels and enhance groundwater recharge, relieving pressure on water-scarce regions in southeastern and eastern coastal areas such as the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal,” the Weather Service said.
But the southwest, which includes Cape Town, may be left high and dry.
“... below-normal rainfall, coupled with largely expected above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures in the southwestern part of the country during the autumn and early winter seasons, are likely to increase water loss, adding pressure on water-scarce regions”, the report read.
Among other things, this could have a negative impact on the winter wheat crop at a time when the withered sector may be on the brink of collapse.
Read more: Loaded for bear — SA wheat farming may be on the brink of collapse
The weather service’s report also joins the growing chorus of forecasts that see rising chances for a return in the spring of the El Niño weather pattern – and potentially the droughts it typically heralds in this region.
“The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is currently still in a weak La Niña state; however, it is expected to return to a neutral state and potentially rapidly evolve into an El Niño state by end of the southern hemisphere winter, which may impact the next summer rainfall in SA,” it said.
The last such event in 2023/24 left a trail of misery in its wake across southern Africa as the droughts it triggered hammered the staple maize and other crops. The rains of its polar opposite La Niña – which some weather watchers say has already faded – have brought relief.
The maize production estimate for 2025-26 is 16.13 million tonnes, a fall of 3% from last season but well above the long-term average and more than ample for domestic needs. But a return of El Niño could bode ill for next season’s crop.
Meanwhile, the southwest looks like it could be in for a drier-than-usual autumn and winter. Johannesburg even as it rains has its own water woes, but those are cadre-created catastrophes. DM