Voters queue during the general elections at Riverside College in Cape Town on 29 May 2024. (Photo: Gallo Images / Misha Jordaan) 
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Ward 57 (Lyttleton Centurion) Tshwane: DA 53% (59%) FF+ 44% (16%) ANC 2% (8%) TRUTH <1%
The setting: Ward 57 is south of the Pretoria centre. It sits just above the Supersport Park cricket stadium in Centurion. Most of the voters in the ward reside in Lyttleton, but the single voting district with the most registered voters is in Die Hoewes.
The 2021 local government elections: The DA swept all three voting districts and ended just shy of the 60% mark. It did best at Laerskool Louis Leipoldt where they obtained 64% support. The Freedom Front Plus (FF+) was second, winning 18% support at both Lyttleton voting districts. ActionSA came third with 9%, with its 11% return in the lone De Hoewes voting district its best result in the ward.
The ANC was fourth with 8%. The party did best in Die Hoewes, picking up 13%. The EFF was fifth with 5%.
The 2024 provincial election: The DA came first with 57% and the EFF second with 11%, well up from its 2021 showing. The ANC was third with 10%.
The FF+ ended fourth with 8% and ActionSA fifth on 5%.
The DA and FF+ fared best at Lyttleton Primary School, while the EFF, ANC and ActionSA did best at the single De Hoewes voting district.
The by-election: The ward councillor died after a long illness. The EFF, which came second in the ward in 2024, and ActionSA, the party with the Tshwane mayoral chain, opted to miss this by-election.
The DA was given a major fright in this traditionally safe seat. The area of the ward where the party has traditionally struggled the most, the De Hoewes voting district, ended up saving the party’s bacon. It beat the FF+ by a mere 270 votes in the by-election. The margin in De Hoewes was 375 votes.
The FF+ won both Lyttleton voting districts. It beat the DA by four votes in the most densely populated voting district of Laerskool Louis Leipoldt. It gave the DA significant pause for thought when it trumped the party by 101 votes at Lyttleton Primary School. So, while the FF+ was not able to win the ward, it was the most popular party in this by-election in Lyttleton. FF+ activists across the country will be buoyed by this impressive showing.
The ANC’s support cratered in this ward. It fell from 13% to 4% in De Hoewes and barely registered any support in Lyttleton.
Poll: 21% (50%)
George, Garden Route
The setting: George is the third-most-populous municipality in the Western Cape. It is also the most vote-rich municipality in the Garden Route district, which includes the towns of Mossel Bay, Oudtshoorn and Knysna.
The background: Two DA ward councillors resigned from the council and joined the Patriotic Alliance (PA). They were joined a few days later by another DA ward councillor. These three vacancies on the council could only be filled after by-elections took place.
This meant the DA with its 27 seats only had 24 councillors on the council. The DA and its coalition partner, the FF+ (four seats), were joined by the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP), which has one seat on the council in a new coalition. This was done to stabilise its majority on the council.
The PA is clearly a rising force in this municipality. It won a seat off Good in 2023 and the DA in 2024.
Ward 17 (Conville Rosemoor): PA 60% (1%) DA 38% (40%) ANC 2% (3%) TRUTH <1%
The setting: Conville and Rosemoor are east of the town centre. The suburbs are below the N12 national road and above the N2 national road.
The 2021 local government election: The DA beat Good by 158 votes. Good bagged 32%. The local Plaaslike Besorgde Inwoners (PBI) came third with 21%. The ANC and PA were well off the pace, with the PA only getting 25 votes.
The DA won the less-populous Rosemoor voting district with 64%. It built a buffer of 235 votes over Good.
Good won the Conville voting district with 37%, 77 votes ahead of the DA. The DA came second with 32%. PBI fared best in this district with 25%.
The 2024 provincial election: The DA faced a stiff challenge from the PA, beating the party by 237 votes. The DA won 47% and the PA 37%. The PA gained a lot of support from Good and PBI voters. The ANC was third with 5%, just ahead of the EFF, which also won 5%. The EFF was boosted by the PBI leader joining the party before the elections. Good’s support collapsed, receiving only 2%.
The by-election: Ward councillor Brendon Adams, who also sat on the mayoral committee, defected to the PA. He is designated to take up a seat in Parliament.
The PA easily picked this ward off the DA, beating the party by 495 votes. The voting district of Conville was key to the PA’s victory. It trounced the DA here by 501 votes, winning 65% of the vote.
The DA beat the PA in Rosemoor by six votes, not nearly enough to stem the PA’s big green tide in Ward 17. It is clear that the former Good and PBI voters flocked to the PA in this ward. The PA was also able to bring out voters in this by-election who did not participate in 2021.
Poll: 54% (50%)
Ward 27 (Pacaltsdorp) in George, Garden Route: PA 51% (18%) DA 49% (36%) ANC <1% TRUTH <1%
The setting: Pacaltsdorp is south of the George town centre. It sits below the N2 national road. Pacaltsdorp produced the rugby player Davon Raubenheimer who was part of the 2005 Under 21 Rugby World Cup-winning team.
The 2023 by-election: Good ward councillor Richard Hector defected to the DA and then decided to move back to Good and try to win Ward 27 for a third consecutive time. A PBI PR councillor, Marchell Kleynhans, defected to the DA and stood for the party.
The DA won both voting districts in the ward to beat Good by 163 votes and gain an additional seat. Good received 26% in this ward. PBI came third with 19%, just ahead of the PA in fourth place with 18%. The PA tripled its support in the ward.
The results across the two districts were similar for most of the parties. The DA won 36% in both districts, while Good received 26%. PBI did slightly better in the Vincent Pallotti Church voting district, while the PA had a marginal improvement in the VGK Pacaltsdorp district.
The 2024 provincial election: The DA came first in Pacaltsdorp with 51%. The PA was second with 33%. The EFF on 4% pipped the ANC and Good to third place. Both the ANC and Good obtained 3%.
The 2026 by-election: DA ward councillor and member of the mayoral committee, Kleynhans, defected to the PA and was chosen by his new party to run in the by-election. Richard Hector defected from Good again to the DA. Good and the EFF were not on the ballot.
The PA beat the DA by 63 votes to take its third consecutive seat off the party in George and its second seat on the same night in another high-turnout by-election. The PA achieved this by winning by a solid margin of 136 votes in the Pacaltsdorp Primary voting district. It also energised its base in this district, since the turnout was 58% compared with 51% in the other Pacaltsdorp voting district.
The DA beat the PA by 73 votes in the St Vincent Pallotti Catholic Church voting district.
The majority of former Good and PBI voters in this ward turned out for the PA, although, unlike Ward 17, the DA was able to draw across voters from these two parties in this ward.
The new council composition in George is: DA 25 (27) ANC 10 PA 5 (3) PBI 5 FF+ 4 Good 3 EFF 2 ACDP 1. Total: 55 seats. The ruling coalition’s majority is reduced by two seats and equals 30 of the 55 council seats. It must be noted that one of the DA’s ward seats is vacant and will be contested on 11 February.
Poll: 55% (36%)
The next round of by-elections will be on 3 February. The ANC will defend three seats: a safe seat in Rietvallei, Mogale City on the West Rand of Gauteng, a very competitive seat in Graaffwater in the Cederberg of the West Coast of the Western Cape and another marginal seat in Bonnievale in the Langeberg of the Cape Winelands. DM