URC log jam adds spice to SA derbies as Six Nations takes a break

The rugby spotlight shifts to Gauteng this weekend, with the Lions tackling the Stormers in Johannesburg and the Bulls hosting the Sharks in Pretoria.

The Six Nations will take a break before what could be a decisive fourth round. For now, the South African derbies will take centre stage, and as the United Rugby Championship (URC) log suggests, the stakes are particularly high.

The Stormers (third) are the best-placed of the SA franchises at this stage, and while they trail Glasgow Warriors (by eight log points) and Leinster (four points), they have a game in hand.

If they don’t crack on to secure a home semifinal – and possibly a home final, they should at the very least qualify for the playoffs.

The Lions (seventh) and Bulls (eighth) find themselves in a more precarious position, while the Sharks (10th) are in danger of missing out on the playoffs completely.

A single log point could mean the difference between qualifying for the top eight or finishing the season among the also-rans, and could also determine whether a side hosts a playoff or travels overseas for a knockout fixture.

With all of the above in mind, the next two rounds – the last two in this season’s set of SA derbies – will be particularly important, as all four teams will be gunning for maximum points.

A brutal season of derbies

The best-case scenario for SA rugby sees all four clubs qualifying for the URC playoffs.

That outcome would improve the chances of at least one SA team reaching – and possibly winning – the final, and would also mitigate some of the intercontinental travel demands in the latter stages of the tournament.

Three of the four teams qualified for the final eight in 2022, and the Bulls did the collective a favour when they travelled to Dublin and beat title favourites Leinster. The upshot was an all-SA decider in Cape Town, which the Stormers went on to win.

What are the chances of three or more local teams qualifying for the next set of playoffs? Going by the current URC table rankings, and looking at the matches to come, it seems unlikely.

It’s been a particularly brutal season in terms of derbies, and at this stage each of the SA teams has lost two or more matches against local opposition.

The Stormers have beaten the Lions and Bulls at home, but have been forced to reflect and reassess following back-to-back losses against the Sharks.

The Lions recently completed the double against the Sharks, and managed to beat the Bulls away before losing to the same side at home.

The win at Ellis Park remains the Bulls’ solitary derby victory this season, following earlier losses to the Stormers, Sharks and Lions.

So much has been said about the Sharks’ erratic form, and how they have managed to beat the strongest SA side twice while losing to one of the traditional stragglers back to back.

To be fair, coaches are forced to juggle their resources over February and March, when many of the SA derbies are staged, and when most of the Springboks are unavailable due to national resting protocols.

But given that we’re five years into the URC, these coaches should know what to expect by now, and should have strategies in place to come through this block of fixtures with sufficient log points to keep their respective playoff hopes alive.

High or low road

The Lions and Sharks will complete their derby schedule this weekend, while the Bulls and Stormers will play their final local fixture – against each other – at Loftus Versfeld on 14 March.

The results of these two rounds will influence the race for playoff places, and ultimately how many SA teams advance to the playoffs.

For now, the Lions, Bulls and Sharks still have the power to shape their own playoff destiny, while the Stormers – thanks to the fact that they have a game in hand – can still push for a home semi-final slot.

The Cape side will also hope that under-strength Leinster and Glasgow sides lose their respective away matches against Cardiff and Connacht this weekend.

But consider how much the situation might change if the Stormers lose in Johannesburg this weekend.

After winning 10 matches in a row across both the URC and Champions Cup, the Stormers have lost two of their last three fixtures. A third defeat in the sequence would prompt serious questions about their ability to stay in the race for the URC top spot.

It’s not quite do or die at this stage for the Lions, Bulls and Sharks, but their respective schedules will only get tougher in the coming months.

They don’t want to leave themselves with too much to do at the back end of the URC league phase – it’s worth noting that some of those fixtures will be played overseas, and will also be preceded by the Champions Cup playoffs.

The clash between the Bulls and Sharks at Loftus this weekend is particularly important when you consider that the winner will finish the round in the top eight, while the loser will drop into the danger zone.

The 10th-placed Sharks are under pressure to build some winning momentum before matches against Munster and Cardiff next month.

The Bulls may be desperate to prove a point after losing in Durban earlier in the season, but another defeat would place them in difficult position before a meeting against the Stormers, who have had their number for most of the URC era. DM