PA crushes DA to bag its third George seat, IFP sees off ANC to retain uMzumbe ward in KZN

Western Cape

Ward 16 (New Dawn Park) George, Garden Route: PA 65% (22%) DA 34% (46%) ANC <1% (1%) TRUTH <1%

The setting: New Dawn Park is the eastern part of Pacaltsdorp. It sits next to the township of Thembalethu and is separated from it by the Skaapkoprivier. Ward 16 is south of the George town centre, below the N2 national road.

The 2023 by-election: Theresa Jeyi, the incumbent and former Good councillor, stood in the ward again, this time for the DA.

Jeyi retained her seat with a 512-vote margin between her and the next-best party, the PA. The PA jumped from fourth place to runner-up with a 22% haul. Good went from first to third, edging out the local Plaaslike Besorgde Inwoners (PBI), as both received 15% of the vote.

The 2024 provincial election: The DA came first with 52%, followed by the PA on 38%. The ANC was a distant third with 4%. The EFF derived little benefit from the PBI partnership, coming in fourth with 2%, just ahead of Good, also on 2%. It is clear that the bulk of the former Good and PBI voters moved to the PA, with a minority breaking for the DA. The 2024 results suggest that Ward 16 had moved from a four-horse race to a two-party contest.

The by-election: Theresa Jeyi defected to the PA. The PA hoped to win its third successive ward off the DA in George in 2026. Jeyi was not chosen as the PA’s candidate in this by-election. Good and the EFF (flanked by the PBI) sat out this by-election.

The PA routed the DA by 890 votes to win its fifth ward in George since 2021. This was the party’s best performance in a George by-election, with a 65% return.

The PA won over former Good and PBI voters. As in previous George by-elections, it also won over new voters and voters who sat out the previous by-election. What made this win even sweeter is that, unlike the previous two George by-elections in 2026, the PA was also able to win over a decent chunk of DA voters.

The new council composition in George is: DA 24 (25) ANC 10 PA 6 (5) PBI 5 VF+ 4 Good 3 EFF 2 ACDP 1. Total: 55 seats. The DA-FF+-ACDP ruling coalition now only controls 29 of the 55 council seats.

The PA is now the third-largest party in the council. It started this term of local government with only one council seat. The party’s star shines very brightly in George.

Poll: 53% (44%)

KwaZulu-Natal

Ward 13 (Hlanzeni Nkalokazi) uMzumbe, Ugu: IFP 43% (50%) ANC 32% (45%) MKP 16% NFP 8% TRUTH <1%

The setting: uMzumbe is on the South Coast of KwaZulu-Natal in the Ugu District. It lies between the uMdoni (Scottburgh) municipality and the Ray Nkonyeni (Port Shepstone) municipality. Current ANC KwaZulu-Natal chairperson Sboniso Duma and former police minister Bheki Cele hail from the municipality. Ward 13 is a rural seat deep in the uMzumbe interior. The ward sits above the uMzumbe River and is west of the town of Hibberdene and the village of Pumula.

The 2021 local government elections: The IFP beat the ANC by 79 votes in a very close contest. Both parties won three voting districts each.

The ANC won the most-populous voting district in the ward – Mvuthuluka Primary School – by 66 votes. The ANC did best at the Kwamqadi Primary School district, obtaining 61% support and beating the IFP by 44 votes.

The IFP won the second-most-populous district – Buhlebethu High School – by 98 votes with an impressive 60%. It did best at the Mtumaseli High School district with 65%, beating the ANC by 74 votes.

The 2024 provincial election: The uMkhonto Wesizwe party (MKP) was the most popular party in the ward with 38% support. The ANC was second with 31% and the IFP third on 27%. In this ward, MKP attracted more IFP supporters than ANC supporters.

MKP was first here, winning two of the six voting districts, including the second-most-populous district of Buhlebethu High School by 100 votes. The IFP was relegated to third in this key district, while MKP had a strong second-place showing in the most-populous district in the ward.

The ANC won only one district, at Mvuthuluka Primary School, the most vote-rich in the ward. It beat MKP by 19 votes and the IFP by 163. It also finished second in three of the six districts.

The IFP won the most districts on the ballot, taking three of the six districts. The Mtumaseli High School district was a key contributor to the IFP’s vote tally. It beat MKP by 72 votes and the ANC by 115 here. The other two districts it won were relatively sparse.

The by-election: IFP ward councillor Siyabonga Doncabe defected to MKP. He was not chosen as the MKP candidate for the by-election.

The ANC and IFP went into this by-election with 17 seats each in the 39-seat council. In 2024, the ANC lost three to the IFP and one to MKP. The EFF has two seats while the African Transformation Movement (ATM), African People’s Movement (APEMO) and MKP have one each. The ANC currently has the mayoral chain in uMzumbe, and a power-sharing agreement with the IFP.

The IFP retained this seat by beating the second-placed ANC by 226 votes. The defection of the former ward councillor to MKP did not help the party much in this by-election.

The IFP won four of the six voting districts in the ward. Mtumaseli High School was critical to its cause again. The party won 75% of the vote here and beat the ANC by 190 votes and MKP by 200 votes in this district. The IFP also won the second-most-populous district of Buhlebethu High School, which was carried by MKP in 2024. The IFP bested the ANC by 55 votes here and MKP by 110.

The ANC won two of the six districts and was first again in the most-populous district, at Mvuthuluka Primary School. The ANC received 91 more votes here than the IFP and 154 more than MKP.

While MKP obtained more than 10% in every district, it could not beat the IFP or ANC in any of them and finished third across the ward.

With this hold the IFP remains tied with the ANC as the largest party in uMzumbe.

Poll: 51% (51%)

The next round of by-elections will be on 25 February when the DA defends a super-safe seat in the northwestern suburbs of Johannesburg, while the ANC will return to Polokwane in Limpopo to fend off opponents in a relatively rural seat. There will also be a by-election in Nongoma in KwaZulu-Natal where the NFP will face stiff competition from the IFP and MKP. DM