‘No immediate risk’ of fuel shortages in SA, most oil imports from Nigeria

There is no need to rush out and fill jerrycans with petrol or diesel – even though a critical refinery is closed for scheduled maintenance and missiles are flying around the powder keg that is the Middle East.

That is the message on Wednesday night from the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR).

“While prolonged geopolitical tensions may exert pressure on international oil prices, the Department wishes to assure the public that there is currently no immediate risk of fuel shortages in South Africa,” the department said.

South Africa’s road to deindustrialisation has seen the closure of several refineries and of the two left standing – Natref and Astron Energy – the latter is closed for a routine and planned maintenance shutdown from 14 February to the end of April.

“... as part of standard operational planning, the company has secured sufficient fuel imports to cover supply requirements during this maintenance period,” the DMPR said.

South Africa also still has the Sasol Secunda coal-to-liquids plant.

These facilities rely on crude oil imports sourced primarily from west Africa and increasingly from other countries across the African continent.

According to the department’s annual report for 2024, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia accounted for 48% (4.5 billion litres) and 18% (1.7 billion litres) of South Africa’s crude oil imports in 2024, respectively, from 47% (3.9 billion litres) and 24% (2.0 billion litres) in 2023. Angola, the US and Ghana accounted for 15% (1.5 billion litres), 8% (718 million litres) and 6% (584 million litres) respectively. The remainder of the volumes came different countries as depicted below.

"I don't think it's an immediate concern, but we are monitoring it. And the government needs to show more agility than it has in the event of a crisis," James Lorimer, a member of the parliamentary portfolio committee on Mineral and Petroleum Resources and the DA's spokesperson in this sector told Daily Maverick.

The escalating conflict in the Middle East has sent crude oil prices soaring and while they remain elevated, the benchmark Brent crude has fallen below $90 a barrel after flirting with a run to $120.

TotalEnergies has reported that production has been shut down or is in the process of shutting down in Qatar, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates offshore, representing about 15% of its total output.

“Oil companies that currently import refined petroleum products from countries affected by the conflict are actively exploring alternative supply sources to ensure uninterrupted fuel availability in the domestic market,” the DMPR said.

The department’s statement comes in the wake of alarms raised in the media about impending fuel shortages in South Africa. With domestic refining capacity slashed and a Middle East conflict that shows no sign of ending, nerves have clearly been jangled.

Of course, its assurances could have the opposite effect. Where there is smoke there is always fire. DM