IFP storms to victory in Zululand wards, PA adds to ANC’s electoral pain in Eastern Cape

KwaZulu-Natal, Zululand

Ward 7 (Ngangayiphi Wela) Nongoma, Zululand: IFP 55% (38% PR*) MKP 21% NFP 12% (53% PR) ANC 9% (5% PR) EFF 1% (3% PR) Ind-Manqele 1%

The setting: Ward 7 is a sparsely populated area which includes numerous small villages, east of the town of Nongoma on the R618 regional road which links Nongoma with the town of Hlabisa.

The 2021 local government elections: The NFP beat the IFP by 366 votes on the proportional representation (PR) ballot and 507 votes on the ward ballot in this ward. The NFP won six of the nine voting districts, with the IFP carrying the remaining three. Besides one of the nine districts being competitive, the rest were landslide victories for the NFP in five districts and the IFP in three.

The NFP did best at the Wela Primary School in Wela with an 80% haul. The IFP did best at the sparsely populated Ngadumbili Primary School in Mphola where it obtained 70% support.

The PR ballot is the mode of comparison here as an independent ran in 2021 who is not featuring in the by-election. He won 9% of the vote and mainly hurt the IFP.

The 2024 provincial elections: The IFP finished first in the voting districts that make up this ward, with 49% support. The NFP, with 18%, edged MKP for second place. MKP was one percentage point behind the NFP. The ANC was fourth with 8%, and the EFF fifth on 4%.

The IFP won seven of the nine voting districts. This included the most vote-rich and third-most vote-rich districts. MKP won a close battle to finish in top spot at Wela Primary School, while the NFP was first across the finishing line at the Ntatakusa Primary School district.

The by-election: The ward councillor resigned over dissatisfaction with the NFP party leadership’s decision-making. The previous ward councillor did not stand in the by-election.

The IFP beat MKP by 791 votes to take this ward off the NFP. The IFP won seven of the nine districts. Two districts were pivotal in this, including the relatively vote-rich Mandlezulu Primary School, where the IFP beat MKP by 116 votes, and also Bongokuhle High School in Dongothuli where it beat MKP by 224 votes. The IFP won more than 80% of the vote in this district.

MKP will be satisfied with its second-place finish. It was unable to win any voting district, but obtained more than 30% support in two of the nine voting districts and more than 20% in six of the nine districts.

The NFP won the district where most votes were cast in the by-election but came apart at the seams across the rest of the ward. This result suggests that the party will lose the bulk of its Nongoma seats come the local government election. The ANC grew relative to its 2021 showing, and will be happy that it won a district. However, the party finished well behind MKP here.

Poll: 49% (54%)

Ward 20 (Bungazeleni Manzimakhulu), Nongoma, Zululand: IFP 47% (37%) MKP 32% NFP 8% (37%) ANC 8% (24%) EFF 3% (3%) NAPF 1%

The setting: Ward 20 sits east of Nongoma, on the R618 road which links Nongoma with the Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park and Mtubatuba. The ward is on the outskirts of Nongoma in a sparsely populated part of the municipality.

The 2022 by-election: The NFP pipped the IFP at the post. This by-election showed how every vote counts as the NFP received nine more votes than the IFP. This was enough to give the NFP a famous victory and the first ward flip in the 2021-26 period of by-election activity.

The IFP won three of the five voting districts. However, it was unable to win any district with more than 50% of the vote. The IFP beat the NFP by more than 60 votes in three districts. The widest margin in the IFP’s favour was 69 votes at Nkabane Primary School in the Mandlakazi Traditional Authority where it obtained 45%.

The NFP only won one voting district. It only finished ahead of the IFP in one of the five districts, Manzimakhulu Primary School in Mcebo, the most-populous district in the ward. The NFP won here with 61%, and a critical 205-vote margin over the IFP.

The ANC finished a credible third, carrying the Nqabayembube High School district in KwaVilana with 41%. It also beat the NFP to second place in two other districts.

The 2024 provincial election: The IFP finished first here with 38% support, followed by MKP with 26%. The NFP was relegated to third place with only 16%. The ANC also got into double percentage figures with 10%. The EFF mustered 2%.

The IFP won four of the five districts in the ward. The IFP beat MKP by 115 votes at Nqabayembube High School district, where MKP finished a distant fourth. The IFP also won at Manzimakhulu Primary School in Mcebo, where it beat MKP by 100 votes.

MKP won the Bukhalini Primary School district in Mandlakazi by 64 votes. This was the only district not carried by the IFP.

The by-election: The ward councillor resigned over dissatisfaction with the NFP party leadership’s decision-making.

The IFP beat the second-placed MKP by 308 votes, taking another ward off the NFP. The IFP won three of the five voting districts in the ward. It was very close between the IFP and MKP in four districts. The IFP pulled away from the chasing pack in the most vote-rich district. It beat MKP by 241 votes at the Manzimakhulu Primary School district, taking 66% of the vote.

MKP won the other two districts, not carried by the IFP. It won 42% of the vote in both. MKP will be chuffed with this strong second-place showing in Nongoma. The NFP’s support collapsed in this ward. It won more than 20% of the vote in one district, but barely registered support in the remaining four. The ANC won more than 10% in only one district.

Both the IFP and the MKP grew at the expense of the NFP and the ANC in this ward.

The IFP now has an outright majority in the Nongoma council. It has 23 (21) of the 45 council seats. The NFP fell from 13 to 11. The ANC is the third-largest party with eight.

Poll: 47% (51%)

Ward 12 (eMondlo Kromellenboog ) AbaQulusi, Zululand: IFP 63% (46%) ANC 20% (52%) MKP 12% EFF 4% (1%) NAPF 1% (1%)

The setting: Ward 12 covers a lot of AbaQulusi territory. It has eight voting districts, but more than one-third of the ward’s voters are registered in the township of eMondlo, which is south of Vryheid, the seat of power in AbaQulusi. The second-most-populous area in the ward is the Kwa Gwebu Community Hall district in the Kromellenboog area, southeast of Vryheid. The farming districts of Metzelfontein and the Kandaspunt Primary School district also have a slightly more than a modest number of voters.

The 2023 by-election: The ANC beat the IFP by 160 votes, by carrying six of the eight voting districts in the ward. The key was winning in eMondlo by 151 votes and carrying the Jimane Creche voting district in the area of Othaka, south of eMondlo, by 71 votes.

The IFP won two districts – Kwa Gwebu Community Hall in Kromellenboog by 107 votes and Metzelfontein School by 80.

The 2024 provincial elections: It was very close between the IFP and MKP, with the IFP edging MKP with 38% against 34%. The margin of victory was 144 votes.

The IFP won four of the nine voting districts. The Kwa Gwebu Hall was instrumental for the IFP as it received 276 more votes than MKP. Metzelfontein School gave the IFP a 140-vote buffer over the MKP.

MKP did very well at the Kandaspunt Primary School district, beating the IFP by 160 votes. MKP also won the most-populous district, Isolomuzi School in eMondlo, with a 99-vote difference over the IFP.

The ANC was third with 21%. It did not win any voting districts, but came second in four districts, including the second-, third- and fourth-most vote-rich districts. The EFF obtained 2%.

The by-election: The ward councillor resigned. The IFP steamrolled the ANC to pick up this seat, winning by 1,131 votes. It won all nine voting districts, taking more than 50% in eight of them. The IFP won 74% of the vote at the Isolomuzi Secondary School district, the most vote-rich in the ward. The IFP beat MKP by 500 votes here and the ANC by 588.

The IFP is now one seat short of an outright majority as it will control 22 of the 45 seats on the AbaQulusi council. The ANC moves from 14 to 13 seats. This means that, hypothetically, the IFP can secure the mayoral chain with the support of either the DA’s two councillors or the lone Freedom Front Plus (VF+) councillor.

Poll: (50%) (56%)

Eastern Cape

Ward 7 (Asherville Aberdeen) Dr Beyers Naude, Sarah Baartman: PA 40% DA 34% (41%) ANC 20% (46%) VF+ 6% (11%)

The setting: Robert Sobukwe Town (formerly Graaff-Reinet) is the seat of power in Dr Beyers Naude. Most of the Ward 7 voters reside in Asherville, southeast of the town centre. There are also voters in Adendorp, further south from the town centre. The ward stretches to the town of Aberdeen, west of Robert Sobukwe Town on the N9 national road. The Dutch Reformed Church in Aberdeen has the second-highest steeple in South Africa. One of the two olive trees on its property emerged from a cutting from the Garden of Gethsemane in Jerusalem.

There are also two sparsely populated voting districts set among farms around Robert Sobukwe Town.

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC beat the DA by 87 votes in a very tight race. The ANC only won a single voting district, Asherville, it scooped 80% of the vote and beat the DA by 509 votes. The DA won the other four districts. It beat the ANC by 196 votes in Aberdeen, by 163 votes in Adendorp and by 39 and 24 votes in the two farming districts. The ANC’s landslide in Asherville was sufficient to hold on in the ward.

The Freedom Front Plus (FF+) beat the ANC to second place in Aberdeen, Adendorp and one of the farming districts. It performed particularly well in Adendorp where it won 30%.

The 2024 provincial elections: The DA came first in the districts making up this ward with 43% support. The ANC was second with 31%, while the PA established itself in Ward 7 with 12%. The FF+ was fourth with 9%.

The DA carried the same four districts as per the 2021 election. It beat the ANC by 225 votes in Adendorp and 211 in Aberdeen. It also built a further buffer of 105 votes when factoring in the two farming districts.

The ANC was the most popular party in Asherville, but the margin was only 299 votes this time and it finished 242 votes behind the DA in the final tally in the ward.

The PA won 20% in Asherville, with more than 200 votes in the district. This was enough to beat the FF+ to third place. The FF+ was second again in Adendorp, Aberdeen and one of the farming districts.

The by-election: The ANC ward councillor, Nathan Jacobs, defected to the PA and won his seat back in PA colours. The PA won more than double the votes in this one ward with a single ballot than it did in the entire municipality in 2021 when considering both ballots. This is a stunning achievement for the party whose first councillor in the municipality will be a ward councillor.

The PA beat the DA by 152 votes. The PA only got into double percentage figures in one of the five districts, in Asherville where it won 57% of the vote. There was also a significant turnout differential for the PA in Asherville of 11% over Aberdeen and 21% over Adendorp. The party demonstrated its ability to bring out voters again in impressive numbers. It beat the DA by 653 votes in Asherville. The ANC also beat the DA in Asherville.

The DA won the four remaining districts, taking 78% in Adendorp, but it was not enough to close the Asherville gap. The FF+ made inroads in Aberdeen where it obtained 26%, but struggled across the rest of the municipality.

The ANC fell from first to third place, with many ANC voters moving across to the PA and Jacobs. This result means the ANC falls from 11 seats to 10 in the 24-seat council. It is now tied with the DA for first place. Four parties in the council have one seat, including the PA. The ANC will probably need to bring the PA on board in Dr Beyers Naude to ensure continued control of the council.

Poll: 61% (52%)

Ward 32 (Kidd’s Beach Tsholomnqa), Buffalo City: ANC 80% (68%) EFF 12% (12%) Ind-Mpofu 4% MKP 3% IFP 1%

The setting: Ward 32 contains 18 voting districts. It is west of the KuGompo City (formerly East London) city centre. It follows the R72 regional road which links KuGompo City with Port Alfred. Most voters in the ward live in Tsholomnqa and Chalumna. The ward includes the seaside villages of Kidd’s Beach and Kayser’s Beach, both of which are known for angling.

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC beat the next-largest party in the ward, the DA, by 2,080 votes, with the latter getting 14% support. The ANC won 16 of the 18 voting districts, with the DA carrying Kidd’s Beach and Kayser’s Beach. The DA beat the EFF to second place by 94 votes.

The 2024 provincial elections: The ANC won 70% of the vote here, with the DA second again with 17%. The EFF struggled in this ward in 2024, only obtaining 7%. MKP hardly featured, with 1%.

The by-election: The ward councillor died after a short illness. The DA sat out this by-election, leaving the ANC to run against a young independent candidate. The ANC had its best result of the night here. The party will be delighted with such strong growth in a relatively high-turnout metro by-election, even if its main rival in the ward was not on the ballot. The party won all 18 voting districts, amassing more than 90% of the vote in five.

The EFF finished a distant second. It would have wanted to show growth in this ward. It garnered more than 35% in two districts.

Poll: 43% (53%)

Ward 14 (Mejela Luthulini) Winnie Madikizela-Mandela, Alfred Nzo: ANC 63% (65%) SACP 12% ATM 11% (3%) EFF 9% (4%) IFP 3% UDM 2% (<1%)

The setting: Ward 14 is a sparsely populated, rural seat south of Bizana, the seat of power in the municipality and below the R61 regional road. Mejele and Luthulini are the villages with the most voters.

Winnie Madikizela-Mandela forms part of the Alfed Nzo district in the northern part of the Eastern Cape. It borders KwaZulu-Natal and includes Ntabankulu, eMaxesibeni (formerly Mount Ayliff) and Matatiele.

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC won here by a landslide. The local Academic Congress Union (ACU) was second with a noteworthy 22% of the vote. The DA was third with 4%.

The ANC won 48 seats on the 64-seat council, including all 32 wards. The African Transformation Movement (ATM), then, is the official opposition in the municipality, with five seats. The EFF is the third-largest party in the council with four. The ACU won a single seat.

The 2024 provincial election: The ANC came first with 64% of the vote when considering the districts making up the ward. The ATM was second with 8%, just ahead of the DA and the EFF, also on 8%.

The by-election: The ward councillor died. The ACU and DA sat out this by-election. The ANC easily retained the seat, beating the next-best party by 1,081 votes. It won all 12 voting districts, doing best in the Luphondweni Tent voting district (92%).

The South African Communist Party (SACP) has really struggled in recent by-elections. Its second-place finish here is its best performance in a by-election since the 2024 national polls. It will be delighted that it beat the ATM and the EFF in this ward.

Poll: 39% (52%)

The next round of by-elections will be on 25 March when the ANC will defend a traditionally safe seat in Dunoon, Cape Town, and a competitive seat in Bridgton in Oudtshoorn, Western Cape. DM