How Covid flipped South Africa's gambling industry overnight

In fiscal year 2020/21, as SA’s hard lockdown shuttered every casino in the country, betting overtook casinos for the first time in history as the dominant force in the country’s gambling economy. Casino’s share of Gross Gambling Revenue dropped from 56.3% to 39.2% in 12 months – a 17-percentage-point decline. Betting surged from 26.8% to 45.6%, claiming the top position in the market. This wasn’t a gradual trend. It was a sudden shift.

By fiscal year 2024/25, betting accounted for 70% of the market, while casinos accounted for just 22%. Casinos now represent barely more than one-fifth of the entire gambling economy. They have declined from controlling 84.4% just 15 years earlier. What began as a lockdown-driven change has become not only permanent but rapidly accelerating.

This is an investigation into SA’s gambling revolution. The data doesn’t lie. An entire industry was flipped on its head in a single year, and the transformation continues to accelerate.

Three eras, one industry

Analysis of National Gambling Board data from 2009 to 2025 reveals three distinct chapters in SA’s gambling story. Each era tells you something different about how South Africans gamble, where they gamble, and why they make these choices.

Era One: The casino kings (2009-2019)

Casinos dominated this period completely. In 2009, they controlled 84.4% of all gambling revenue in SA. Venues like Sun City, GrandWest and Emperors Palace functioned as destinations rather than just gambling locations. People visited for the complete experience: the atmosphere, dining, entertainment, and the sense of possibility that these sprawling complexes offered.

Betting certainly existed during this time. Horseracing had a long history in SA, and sports betting shops were established fixtures in many communities. However, these operations were specialised and represented approximately 10% of the market. The limiting factor was infrastructure. Mass-market mobile betting required smartphones, affordable data, and reliable internet connectivity. In 2009, these conditions weren't widely available to most South Africans.

The situation changed gradually over the following decade. Mobile phone penetration among adults approached 90%. Data costs declined as competition among network providers increased. Technology improved with each passing year. By 2019, casino market share had declined to 56.3%, though they remained the dominant sector. Betting had grown to 26.8%, more than doubling its share over 10 years through steady digital adoption.

Industry analysts predicted eventual convergence, with betting potentially reaching parity with casinos around 2025 or 2026. These projections proved incorrect by approximately five years. The timeline would compress dramatically due to an unforeseen global event.

Era Two: The Covid rupture (2020/21)

On 23 March 2020, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced one of the world’s strictest lockdowns in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. The lockdown began on 27 March 2020. Every casino in SA closed immediately. For months, these revenue-generating facilities remained shuttered. Slot machines were unplugged. Table games were covered. Staff were furloughed. Fixed costs continued (property taxes, security, maintenance) while revenue dropped to zero.

Online betting platforms faced no such restrictions. They operated continuously through lockdown Levels 5, 4 and 3. When global sports shut down, operators adapted. They offered virtual sports, esports, and international leagues that were still running. When traditional sports returned, betting activity increased significantly.

The fiscal data shows the scale of this disruption. In FY2020/21, casino GGR share fell from 56.3% to 39.2%, a decline of 17 percentage points. Betting GGR share rose from 26.8% to 45.6%, an increase of 18.8 percentage points. The market didn't rotate gradually. It inverted in one year. This was comparable to the disruption e-commerce caused to traditional retail: sudden, structural, and seemingly permanent.

Era Three: No going back (2021-2025)

Industry observers expected casinos to regain market share when they reopened after lockdown restrictions lifted. This didn’t happen. Instead, the divergence continued and then accelerated. By fiscal year 2024/25, betting accounted for 70% of total revenue, while casinos accounted for just 22%. The gap widened dramatically, expanding from 31.2 percentage points in fiscal 2023/24 to 48 percentage points in fiscal 2024/25. This is a 16.8-point increase in a single year.

The fiscal 2024/25 data revealed the most dramatic single-year shift since the initial Covid disruption. Betting gained 9.5 percentage points while casinos lost 7.3 percentage points in 12 months. This acceleration pattern suggests the transformation has entered a new phase. The pandemic didn't temporarily pause casino growth. It fundamentally changed how South Africans gamble, and that change continues to intensify rather than stabilise.

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The money behind the numbers

South Africans wagered R1.5-trillion in fiscal year 2024/25. This generated R74.9-billion in Gross Gambling Revenue, representing a 26.2% increase from the previous year. Of that R74.9-billion, betting accounted for R52.3-billion, while casinos accounted for R16.6-billion. The disparity illustrates how dramatically and rapidly the market continues to shift.

The betting sector now generates more than three times the revenue of casinos, a ratio that continues to widen. This represents a complete inversion from 2009, when casinos generated more than eight times the revenue from betting. The transformation extends beyond simple market share shifts to encompass fundamental changes in how gambling revenue flows through the South African economy.

As of March 2025, 37 casinos are operational out of a total of 41 licences issued by provincial gambling boards. Four licences remain unused. In an industry where licences are valuable commodities, unused licences suggest operators believe the economics of physical casinos no longer justify the capital investment required. The fiscal 2024/25 data reinforces this assessment, with casino revenue declining in real terms even as overall gambling spending surges.

Forgotten losers

While betting and casinos competed for market dominance, two smaller sectors experienced continued decline that accelerated in fiscal 2024/25. These sectors tell their own story about the broader shift away from physical, social gambling toward digital, individual experiences.

Bingo peaked at 11.3% of revenue in fiscal 2019/20 before collapsing to just 2.3% by 2024/25. Bingo’s core value proposition is social interaction. It appeals primarily to pensioners and older demographics who meet regularly for the community aspect as much as for the game itself. When lockdowns forced social distancing, bingo lost its fundamental appeal. The game itself (random-number matching with a minimal skill component) cannot compete with betting apps or online casinos when stripped of its social context. Without the social element, participation declined sharply and has continued to fall even as other restrictions have been lifted.

Limited Payout Machines (LPMs), those electronic gaming devices in pubs and taverns, reached 7% of market share in fiscal 2023/24 before declining to 5.5% in fiscal 2024/25. While LPMs showed growth from around 1% in 2009 to their 2023/24 peak, the recent decline suggests they face the same structural disadvantages as other physical gambling modes. These machines are located in pubs, taverns and convenience stores that saw traffic decline during lockdowns and never fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. They also cannot compete with the visual sophistication and reward structures of online gambling platforms. The fiscal 2024/25 decline suggests this trend is accelerating rather than stabilising.

Four hard truths

The National Gambling Board data through fiscal 2024/25 reveals patterns that challenge conventional assumptions about gambling behaviour and market dynamics, and demonstrate that the transformation continues to accelerate.

First, the disruption was instantaneous rather than gradual. This was the fastest peacetime industry restructuring in modern South African economic history. There were no warning signs or gradual shifts that might have allowed incumbents to adapt. The initial reversal occurred in a single fiscal year during 2020/21. Markets typically shift over years or decades, allowing established players time to adjust their strategies. The South African gambling industry had no such luxury, and the years since have shown no return to historical patterns.

Second, the divergence continues to accelerate rather than stabilise. Between fiscal 2021/22 and 2024/25, betting’s share grew from 52.3% to 70%, while casinos fell from 35.1% to 22%. The most recent year showed the sharpest post-Covid movement, with betting gaining 9.5 percentage points and casinos losing 7.3 percentage points in fiscal 2024/25 alone. The gap between the two sectors widened from 31.2 percentage points to 48 percentage points in a single year. This acceleration contradicts the expectation that markets eventually reach balance points where different segments coexist in relatively stable proportions.

Third, total market growth masks the extent of casino decline. Total Gross Gambling Revenue grew 26.2% year-on-year to R74.9-billion in fiscal 2024/25, suggesting a healthy, expanding market benefiting all participants. However, that growth went overwhelmingly to betting. In absolute terms, casino revenue declined from R17.4-billion to R16.6-billion between fiscal 2023/24 and 2024/25, even as overall gambling spending increased by more than R15-billion. The aggregate numbers conceal a winner-take-all dynamic where betting platforms capture virtually all incremental spending while casino revenue stagnates or declines.

Fourth, this represents a comprehensive shift from physical to digital rather than casino-specific challenges. Every gambling mode that requires physical presence, such as casinos, bingo and Limited Payout Machines, declined or stagnated in fiscal 2024/25. Bingo fell from 3.2% to 2.3% of market share. LPMs declined from 7.0% to 5.5%. Meanwhile, betting surged from 60.5% to 70%. This represents a wholesale migration from physical to digital gambling that continues to intensify, not merely a problem for casinos. The pattern suggests fundamental changes in consumer behaviour and preferences that extend across the entire gambling sector and show no signs of moderating.

The question that remains

The data through fiscal 2024/25 shows what happened with remarkable precision, documenting the transformation through official statistics that are difficult to dispute. However, the data cannot fully explain why the transformation not only became permanent but continues to accelerate years after the initial shock.

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South Africans continue to gamble actively. They wagered R1.5-trillion in fiscal 2024/25, a 31.3% increase from the previous year, demonstrating explosive growth in overall gambling activity. The appetite for gambling hasn’t diminished. However, this gambling now occurs overwhelmingly on mobile phones rather than on casino floors. The location and method have changed fundamentally, while the underlying behaviour persists and intensifies.

When casinos reopened after lockdown restrictions lifted, industry analysts expected a return to historical patterns. The betting surge appeared to be an artefact of lockdown constraints, forced digital adoption that would reverse once physical venues reopened. Casino operators invested in enhanced safety protocols and marketing campaigns designed to win back customers. This expectation proved incorrect, and the fiscal 2024/25 data shows the reversal has not only failed to materialise, but the opposite trend has accelerated.

The transformation has proven not merely permanent but increasingly extreme.

Industry analysts, investors and casino operators all misjudged the situation. They underestimated how quickly consumer behaviour could change and overestimated the strength of attachment to physical gambling venues. More significantly, they failed to anticipate that the trend would accelerate rather than moderate over time. The fiscal 2024/25 data, showing the widest single-year divergence since the Covid shock, documents their collective error with unprecedented clarity. DM

Mduduzi Mbiza is a seasoned writer with over 10 years of combined experience in various industries such as education, politics, technology, and iGaming.