Wales’ shock victory over All Blacks gives Springboks Nations Championship lifeline

Initial predictions that the Nations Championship, the attempt to give the annual July and November Test windows more significance, was a lame duck tournament, have been turned upside down after a weekend of excellent rugby.

The Springboks’ 21-19 loss to France in Paris on Friday night, a magnificent game for the neutral and for Les Bleus fans, set the tone.

The result seemed to have scuppered the Boks’ chances of making the final of the inaugural Nations Championship because the All Blacks remained undefeated with games against Wales and England to come.

On Saturday morning, the Boks woke up knowing that even five log points in their final pool match against Ireland in Dublin next week would probably not be enough to reclaim the top spot in the Southern Hemisphere standings.

Most pundits and fans had already given the All Blacks five log points for the Wales game, even though New Zealand coach Dave Rennie heavily rotated his team.

If the All Blacks took maximum points from the Wales outing, they’d only need two log points from their final game against England to better the Boks. Now, it’s all to play for.

Wait over

Maybe there was some complacency in the All Black camp. They had won 34 consecutive Tests against Wales going back to 1953.

In that time, the All Blacks had beaten many better Wales teams than the 2026 version. The great 1970s Welsh sides of Phil Bennett, Gareth Edwards, JPR Williams, Barry John and others had narrowly been beaten.

Wales’ excellent 2010s teams under Sam Warburton and Alun Wyn Jones made two RWC semifinals and won multiple Six Nations titles. But they were unable to beat the All Blacks.

The current team had not beaten a top eight-ranked opponent since smashing an imploding Australia at Rugby World Cup 2023. They lost 18 Tests in a row from 2023 to mid 2025.

Wales had only won five of their previous 32 Tests going into the New Zealand clash, and three of those wins were against Japan.

Nothing suggested a first win in seven decades over the All Blacks.

Brilliant blitz

But somehow they did, through a brilliant opening attacking blitz that saw them score two tries in the first seven minutes. That was followed by heroic defence that saw Wales make a total of 348 tackles, with three players completing more than 30 tackles.

To put that in perspective, Pieter-Steph du Toit made 28 tackles in the final of RWC 2023. It is considered one of the great individual performances.

James Botham, grandson of cricketing legend Ian Botham, made 30 tackles and was immense as a ball carrier as well. The superb flank Jac Morgan made 31 tackles and lock Daffyd Jenkins completed 38 hits.

Wales held the All Blacks up over the tryline three times in the space of 10 minutes deep in the second half.

It was a victory for sheer guts and commitment, as well as a defensive system that didn’t fail. There were heroes everywhere, with centre Eddie James producing a coming-of-age Test performance.

It also helped Wales that the All Blacks were impatient on attack and oddly, considering their usual preference to go wide, kept attacking narrowly in those crucial second-half minutes. They will face some tough questions in the review.

Open tournament

The epic nature of both the France versus Boks and Wales versus New Zealand clashes gave the Nations Championship meaning as a tournament.

As standalone Tests, they would have carried huge significance for the four countries individually. As two games within a tournament, the outcomes transcended their immediate parameters to the benefit of the competition.

In the early hours of Saturday morning, at his post-match press conference at Stade de France, Bok coach Rassie Erasmus cut a frustrated and angry figure. He, like most of us, must have thought the path to a potential final had become narrower than All Black coach Dave Rennie’s stare.

Suddenly, the road had widened.

Make no mistake, the All Blacks are still in prime position to advance. If they beat England while scoring four tries, they are in the final.

If the All Blacks beat England without a try-scoring bonus point, the Boks will need to beat Ireland while scoring four tries or more.

The Boks haven’t scored four tries in a winning cause in Dublin since 1951.

On the flip side, the northern hemisphere standings are a three-team race between France, England and Ireland.

France have 21 points, while England and Ireland are on 20. Obviously, they all need to win, preferably with bonus points, to have a chance of making the final.

France meet Argentina, which on paper is the easiest draw considering who Ireland and England face.

This is where the tournament structure plays a positive part. For all five teams involved in the race for the two top spots, the outcome of their games takes on a new edge. It’s not just a free-standing Test. And because of that, they and their fans are invested in the outcome of other Tests.

The Nations Championship may have got off to a mediocre start in July, but as it’s taken shape and reached its November climax, it’s obvious that it’s working.  DM