--- title: "The odd maths of a Nations Championship final berth" description: "The Springboks have to battle the northern giants as well as the All Blacks to earn a place at the top." type: "NewsArticle" publisher: "Daily Maverick" site: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za" section: "NUMBERS GAME" author: "Jon Cardinelli" author_url: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/author/jon-cardinelli/" canonical_url: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2026-11-01-the-odd-maths-of-a-nations-championship-final-berth/" published: "2026-11-01T11:19:36" lang: "en-ZA" word_count: 1289 --- # The odd maths of a Nations Championship final berth > The Springboks have to battle the northern giants as well as the All Blacks to earn a place at the top. By Jon Cardinelli · Published 1 November 2026, 13:19 SAST ## Key points - The Nations Championship’s conference system means the Springboks and All Blacks are effectively competing against each other for one final berth. - Both southern giants could finish with perfect records, yet one will miss out while a northern team can afford another defeat and still advance. - South Africa face a punishing European tour against Italy, France and Ireland, with selection and fatigue central to Rassie Erasmus’s calculations. - The tournament’s unusual maths raises a bigger question: does it reward excellence, or simply guarantee hemispheric representation in the final? ## Content The integrity of the Nations Championship will be in the spotlight over the next four weeks as leading teams from the northern and southern hemispheres compete for a place in the final on 29 November in London. World Rugby launched the biennial tournament earlier this year to bolster the inter-hemisphere fixtures staged in the July and November Test windows. Although the move has been lauded on both sides of the equator, the competition’s conference system has come in for criticism, as it rewards the winners of each group with a place in the final rather than the best-performing sides over the course of the league phase. Though the tournament is styled as a clash of the hemispheres, southern giants like the Springboks and All Blacks are essentially competing with each other for top spot in the conference and, ultimately, a berth in the final. And, as the second phase of the tournament looms, it’s clear how one of the world’s best-performing teams will fail to progress to the decider, even if they win all six league games with a bonus point. The Boks and All Blacks dominated the first phase of the Nations Cham­pionship in July, accumulating a maximum of 15 log points in three Tests. It’s possible that both teams will maintain that effort over the next three weeks – but only one side will advance to the final. Meanwhile, leading northern teams such as France (12 points), Scotland (11), England and Ireland (both 10) suffered one loss apiece in July. It’s crazy to think that one of them could lose another game this November and still progress to the decider. ### **Luck of the draw** The Boks sit at the top of the southern conference after three rounds, thanks to their supe­rior points difference of 81. The All Blacks beat France, Italy and Ireland with a bonus point in July, but the contests in New Zealand were far tighter than those in South Africa and, as a result, Dave Rennie’s men finished the block with a points difference of 51. The good news for the All Blacks is that they will enjoy a less challenging schedule in November, with matches against Scotland (ranked sixth in the world), Wales (10th) and England (fifth). The Boks will face Italy on 7 November before tackling Six Nations champions France and Ireland (third in the World Rugby rankings) on consecutive ­weekends. Even if Rassie Erasmus’s charges claim five log points from each of those fixtures, they may be overtaken by the All Blacks if the New Zealanders pile on the points against Scotland, Wales and England. ![Ireland v South Africa - Quilter Nations Series 2025](https://cdn.dailymaverick.co.za/i/0vO-GNUrPMiz5dMFv8ExibTkcD4=/200x100/smart/filters:strip_exif\(\)/file/attachments/2999/Cardinelli-Nationschampsfinale3_552646.jpg) *Jesse Kriel of South Africa is tackled by Sam Prendergast and Bundee Aki of Ireland during the Quilter Nations Series 2025 match between the two countries at the Aviva Stadium on 22 November 2025 in Dublin, Ireland. (Photo: Charles McQuillan / Getty Images)* If both teams finish the league with the same number of wins and log points, the side with the best points difference will advance to the final. Other southern teams like Australia (who currently have eight log points) and Argentina (seven) are unlikely to push for top spot. It’s plain to see why Erasmus will keep an eye on the All Blacks over the next three weeks. The fixture against Wales may present the New Zealanders with the opportunity to boost their points difference by 30 or more, given that the Boks beat the Dragons 43-0 in Durban earlier this year and the All Blacks won 52-26 in Cardiff in November last year. That said, the All Blacks have suffered a host of injuries in recent months and may not be at their best. They should account for Scotland and England, but the winning margins in Edinburgh and London may not be as emphatic as expected. ### **Balancing the Springbok priorities** The Boks have already realised two of their preseason goals. Erasmus has already used 72 players over the course of the international season and trialled a number of new players and combinations in preparation for the 2027 World Cup. More recently, the Boks beat the All Blacks 3-1 in the inaugural Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series. The Nations Championship wasn’t a priority at the start of the season, but having ticked the development box and clinched the series against the All Blacks, South Africa are now in a position to push for top spot in the new tournament. It will be interesting to see how Erasmus approaches the four-match tour to Europe in terms of squad management and selection. Although the Boks won all five of their matches in the northern hemisphere last year, the marquee clashes against France and Ireland were staged two weeks apart. Erasmus rotated his squad over the course of that tour and ensured that his front-line players remained fresh for the most demanding encounters. The upshot was a 32-17 win against the French and a 24-13 victory over the Irish. ![France v South Africa - Autumn Nations Series 2025](https://cdn.dailymaverick.co.za/i/dCPIcHNAtfy6w6Ny1hZzgHTTgeE=/200x100/smart/filters:strip_exif\(\)/file/attachments/2999/Cardinelli-Nationschampsfinale7_864034.jpg) *Nolann Le Garrec of France offloads the ball with a chistera during the Autumn Nations Series 2025 match against South Africa at Stade de France on 8 November 2025 in Paris, France. (Photo: Lionel Hahn / Getty Images)* This November, the Boks will face France in Paris on Friday, 13 November, just six days after battling Italy in Turin. The opening clash against the Azzurri may present Erasmus with a chance to field some of his less established players – and yet, a few of the first-choice stars may require a hit-out before stepping into the Stade de France cauldron. The clash in Dublin could be even tougher, given the quality of the opposition and that some of Ireland’s best players may be rested the week before when the team faces Fiji. Though the Boks will try to replicate their 2025 performance in Dublin – and more specifically a titanic scrummaging display – fatigue could be a factor after the battle against the French. ### **Finals weekend configurations** This poses the question of how the Boks might fare a week later when they arrive in London for what tournament organisers are calling “finals weekend”. If the All Blacks finish at the top of the southern conference and advance to the final, the second-placed Boks will tackle the second-placed northern team – possibly Ireland again. In that event, one could forgive Erasmus for using the fourth clash of the tour to experiment with younger players with a view to developing the team ahead of the 2027 World Cup. But if the Boks edge ahead of the All Blacks in the southern standings and face the likes of France in the final, they could be in for another test of endurance. The Boks proved that they can perform in four consecutive Tests when they outlasted the All Blacks in the recent series, and that they have the depth to meet the challenge. The likes of France and Ireland are yet to be tested in this department – and the French have already suffered a number of setbacks. It remains to be seen how the second stage of the league phase will pan out, but the smart ­money is on a southern side lifting the Nations Championship trophy in November. In the event of both teams winning every league match and finishing on the same number of points, one set of fans will have reason to question whether this tournament is about celebrating ex­cellence or merely en­­suring that one team from either side of the equator is represented in a final. **DM** *This story first appeared in our weekly DM168 newspaper, available countrywide for R39. The e-edition of Daily Maverick’s weekly newspaper, DM168, is now free for readers who are signed into their Daily Maverick account. Click*[*here*](https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/168/)*to access the latest e-edition.* ![Image](https://cdn.dailymaverick.co.za/i/ahhRZXBiwLBfc7zeno_HRZ1gIlM=/200x100/smart/filters:strip_exif\(\)/file/attachments/2999/DM-30102_113245.jpg)