Four eThekwini polls show MK’s possible paths to power

There have been four election surveys in eThekwini between June and September. The MK party (MKP) has been the first choice for voters in every poll – and opposition parties can only find their way to a majority coalition in two out of four scenarios.

The four polls give rise to very different outcomes: the DA, ANC and IFP have a clear majority in The Common Sense/Social Research Foundation poll, but might as well stay at home if Ipsos is closer to the election result.

The two most recent polls, which appear to be the most credible, could reinforce either scenario: an MKP-led coalition or outright majority, or a coalition anchored by the DA, ANC and IFP, reproducing the Government of Provincial Unity coalition. 

The MKP’s chances look healthier in both the News24/Sabi poll and the eNCA/Markdata one. The value of the EFF to either coalition – and the DA’s red line on EFF inclusion – could ripple across the rest of the province. 

The SRF/TCS poll returned the smallest plurality for the MKP and a long way off an outright majority. Based on the number of seats allocated to the DA, ANC and IFP, the three parties could easily form a majority coalition together, replicating the Government of Provincial Unity. MKP needs the ANC or the IFP plus a couple of seats. 

This poll allocates 13 seats to smaller parties, more than the other two polls, but still about half the seats held by one- and two-seat parties in 2021. 

The Ipsos poll gives MKP 55% of the vote and a clear majority. This is the easiest scenario to evaluate: there is just one government outcome and the opposition parties cannot form a majority coalition.

This poll is most favourable to ActionSA despite the smaller pool of opposition seats. 

The News24 / Sabi poll has MKP somewhere in the middle, needing 16 seats for a majority, including at least one of the other five bigger parties in coalition. The DA’s numbers are the best of the three polls.

A coalition of the DA, ANC, IFP and ActionSA would need just one seat from the smaller parties to reach a majority, and the DA’s refusal to entertain the EFF would be a non-issue. 

The seat allocations under the eNCA / Markdata poll could really test the DA’s resolve to remain in opposition rather than work with the EFF. Under this scenario, the MKP and EFF have a one-seat majority in council.

Two-and-a-half years ago, the IFP, ANC and DA had just enough seats – and only with the help of the NFP – to keep the MKP out of the provincial government. An MKP-EFF coalition could suit both parties – and form the backbone of other coalition agreements across the province. DM