The 2026 local elections will be an early warning for 2029

While these local elections will be important in each and every council and metro where power can change hands, they will also be the best signpost to what will change in 2029. These polls will reveal whether issues like immigration, crime and violence and the economy will become more urgent, while also revealing whether individual leaders will be able to campaign effectively in the national elections.

In both 2019 and 2024 several ANC expressed surprise at the rate at which their party was losing votes.

The only reason they could say this was that they had not been paying attention to the results of local elections. While each local election has its own dynamics, the fact is there is no better yardstick for what will happen in the next national and provincial elections than the local elections that come before.

In 2016 the ANC lost power in places like Joburg and Nelson Mandela Bay for the first time, an indication that it would fall to 57.5% in the national election and just 50.4% in Gauteng. 

The 2021 elections saw the ANC’s share of votes across the country falling further to 45.59%. This was the best possible signpost that it would fall further, to just 40.18% in the 2024 national elections.

This upcoming election then is likely to reveal that the ANC has fallen further. But the real question is about the rate of decline.

If the ANC were to fall below, say, 30%, that would indicate it could be at that level or even lower in 2029. 

And, as unlikely as this may be, if the DA were to increase its share of the national vote to about 30%, that would have huge implications for the relationship between them.

In other words, this election might well be the start of a major reconfiguration of the power relationship between the ANC and the DA, where they have to become much more equal partners in national government after 2029 than they are now.

Of course, this could go the other way – if these elections show the ANC is still the biggest party in the country, then it could confirm the current power relationship.

Coalition question

But perhaps the biggest longer-term issue the results of this election could illuminate is whether future coalitions in national government will be durable.

If the outcome of this poll shows a variety of parties that all have about 20% support, but won’t work with each other, that would mean there is a strong chance there will be no durable national election in 2029.

But if voters end up supporting parties that are willing to work together to above the 50% mark, that might show the opposite.

Also, this election might produce results where, for example, the DA does better than the ANC in Joburg, but the two decide to work together rather than including MK and the EFF.

This would mean the DA would hold the mayoralty, with the ANC the weaker partner. And that might point to future coalitions nationally.

On the other hand, the ANC could decide to work with MK and the EFF because that would give them a stronger hand, both in terms of the power relationship between them and in the number of councillors they could count on in councils.

If those coalitions work it would be tempting for the ANC to work with those parties in national government in three years. 

Campaign tactics

Another important signpost this election could provide is to show which issues are becoming more politically prominent.

If parties that campaign explicitly or implicitly on the issue of immigration gain strong support, it would indicate that this issue could become more urgent in 2029. There will be some parties who might hope to make this the defining issue of that election, and they will be trying to start that process now.

Considering the absolute mess and chaos in the top leadership of the police, it is slightly strange that no party has tried to lay the groundwork for that to be a big issue in 2029.

But in the month until 4 November some parties might well try to campaign on reforming the police.

Our current levels of violent crime, and the state’s consistent inability to deal with it, are creating fertile ground for any party that campaigns for a much tougher approach, including the reintroduction of the death penalty.

Some parties might start to amplify this message now, in a bid to make it a bigger issue in 2029. If they can do that, they will force the ANC to defend the abolishment of the death penalty, putting them in a difficult position with some voters.

Leadership tests

The other prism through which to view these elections is the role that party leaders play in them, with a view to predicting how they might fare in 2019.

This is Geordin Hill-Lewis’s first election as DA leader. It means he is the party’s symbol and a figurehead for the first time. 

And while he has a strong imprint in Cape Town politics as mayor there, the real test is whether he is able to campaign strongly in Gauteng.

If he is asked questions about race by voters on the campaign trail and unable to give an articulate response that resonates with black voters, that might suggest he will struggle to be a truly national leader in 2029.

This would be an important time for him to craft a political identity, both for himself and for the DA, that is distinct from the identities of John Steenhuisen and, crucially, Helen Zille.

If he achieves this he would be putting other parties on notice that he might be able to grow his party in three years.

The ANC appears to have all manner of leadership problems. Its reliance on President Cyril Ramaphosa on election posters and its inability to decide on mayoral candidates reveals a party in apparent turmoil.

The fact that its leadership race is now wide open means that possible ANC leadership candidates should now be trying to crisscross the country. The fact that Deputy President Paul Mashatile is not doing this is politically significant.

But so far it appears that no ANC leader is doing this in a public way. 

This makes it impossible for voters to know what the ANC leader in 2029 will be like. It also means that whoever does take over in 2029 will lack the campaigning experience this election would provide.

This local election is also an important opportunity for the leaders of smaller parties to make some kind of mark.

There are many issues in the current zeitgeist, and the person who is best able to harness one of those, either through social media or a clip of a speech that goes viral, might make a mark.

This could feed into the national election since they would ensure they get media coverage and are watched on social media.

While these elections are likely to be the most important signpost ahead of 2029, this will also be a turnout election. Some people will be turning out simply to vote against the incumbent.

But in the national elections, where local dynamics are not so prevalent, turnout patterns might be significantly different.

This means the signpost has to be analysed carefully before making any predictions about 2029.

That said, those interested in the future of South Africa should pay close attention to what happens over the next month. DM