---
title: "Lula and Bolsonaro statistically tied in potential Brazil runoff, polls suggest"
description: "SAO PAULO, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro remain statistically tied in simulated runoffs ahead of next month's election, two polls showed on Monday."
type: "NewsArticle"
publisher: "Daily Maverick"
site: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za"
section: "World"
author: "Reuters"
author_url: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/author/reuters/"
canonical_url: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2026-09-22-lula-and-bolsonaro-statistically-tied-in-potential-brazil-runoff-polls-suggest/"
published: "2026-09-22T04:41:52"
lang: "en-ZA"
word_count: 287
---

# Lula and Bolsonaro statistically tied in potential Brazil runoff, polls suggest

> SAO PAULO, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro remain statistically tied in simulated runoffs ahead of next month's election, two polls showed on Monday.

By Reuters · Published 22 September 2026, 06:41 SAST

## Content

Bolsonaro leads Lula by one percentage point in a Quaest poll, while Lula is ahead by one point in a separate BTG Pactual/Nexus poll. They remain statistically tied since the advantages are within the margin of error.

QUAEST POLL

- Bolsonaro, son of the former President Jair Bolsonaro, would receive 42% of voter support in a potential runoff, against 41% for Lula, a Quaest poll showed late afternoon.
- The [**previous Quaest poll**](https://www.reutersconnect.com/all?search=all%3AL6N4560SZ&linkedFromStory=true), released on September 14, showed Bolsonaro at 42% and Lula at 40%.
- If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff on October 25.
- In a first-round scenario, Quaest had Lula leading with 37% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro (33%), Cury (6%) and Caiado (4%).
- Last week, the poll showed Lula at 36% and Bolsonaro at 31% in the first round.
- Quaest surveyed 2,004 people from September 17 to 20; the margin of error is 2 percentage points.

BTG PACTUAL/NEXUS POLL

- Lula would receive 46% of voter support, compared with 45% for Bolsonaro in a potential runoff, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed earlier in the day.
- A [**September 14 survey**](https://www.reutersconnect.com/all?search=all%3AS8N44200L&linkedFromStory=true) had Lula leading Bolsonaro by 47% to 46%.
- In a first-round scenario, Lula would lead with 40% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro (37%), Augusto Cury (6%) and Ronaldo Caiado (5%).
- The previous first-round survey had Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 37%.
- Nexus surveyed 2,006 people from September 18 to 20. The poll also has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

(Reporting by Rodrigo Viga Gaier in Rio de Janeiro, Michael Susin in Barcelona and Gabriel Araujo and Andre Romani in Sao Paulo; Editing by Isabel Teles)