Will Ramaphosa follow Modi’s lead and confront Putin on Ukraine?

When BRICS leaders meet this weekend, the question hanging over President Cyril Ramaphosa is whether he will follow Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s example and tell Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop his “endless” war in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s ambassador to South Africa wishes he would. So too do others, including some South African diplomats.

Ramaphosa, Putin, Modi and about 14 other leaders will meet in New Delhi, India, on Saturday and Sunday for the annual summit of the BRICS bloc, which now comprises 10 full members and 10 partner countries.

South Africa, Russia and India are core BRICS members, as are China and Brazil. If one BRICS partner can tell another one some home truths, some are asking why South Africa can’t do the same.

Last week, on 31 August, in a face-to-face meeting on the margins of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in the Kyrgyzstan capital, Bishkek, Modi publicly told Putin that the war in Ukraine needed to end for humanity’s sake and that New Delhi would back all efforts to secure peace.

“Every day that the war continues, humanity is, in effect, set back a step, whilst every step towards peace gives all of humanity real hope for peace,” Japan Times reported Modi as saying. “We need to move from endless war to an end to the war, to a cessation of hostilities. And we will need to move precisely in this direction.”

Though appearing taken aback by Modi’s straight talk, Putin responded: “Thank you very much, Prime Minister. We are moving forward along this path.”

However, by most accounts, Putin is steadfastly resisting peace efforts by the US and has intensified his relentless bombardment of Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, and other cities.

“Prime Minister Modi did the right thing,” Ukraine’s ambassador to South Africa, Olexander Scherba, told Daily Maverick. “He said that war is bad and peace is good in the presence of his friend who chose war.

“Had other geopolitical giants, like China, South Africa, Brazil done the same, it might have moved the needle towards peace. Yes, what Modi said was self-evident. Sadly, we live in a time when some countries need to be reminded of what is self-evident. In Russia’s case, it takes even some courage. And I’m grateful to Prime Minister Modi for having it.”

‘Nothing new’

Daily Maverick asked Ramaphosa’s spokesperson, Vincent Magwenya, whether Ramaphosa would deliver the same sort of peace message to Putin this weekend. “President Ramaphosa has always called for an end to conflict between Russia and Ukraine. There’s nothing new there,” replied Magwenya.

Yes, but there are different ways of doing that. The striking thing about Modi’s message was its directness. There appeared to be no equivocation. On the face of it, he seemed to be saying to Putin: “Only you can stop this war now.”

That’s what South Africa’s Department of International Relations and Cooperation did on the day Russia invaded Ukraine, 24 February 2022. It issued a statement saying “South Africa calls on Russia to immediately withdraw its forces from Ukraine in line with the United Nations Charter, which enjoins all member states to settle their international disputes by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security, and justice are not endangered.

“South Africa emphasises respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states.”

But that statement evidently provoked outrage among the many Russian supporters in the ANC and its tripartite partners. Ramaphosa himself, days later, implicitly contradicted it, blaming Nato for provoking Russia’s attack on Ukraine because it had expanded its membership up to Russia’s borders.

‘Simplistic and infantile’

When the then minister of international relations, Naledi Pandor, met her Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, in Pretoria nearly a year later, Daily Maverick asked if she had repeated her call for Russia to withdraw from Ukraine.

She replied that to have done so “would make me appear quite simplistic and infantile, given the massive transfer of arms that has occurred, given the level of conflict there is, and all the developments that have occurred in almost a year, a month from now. 

“So no, I did not repeat that particular statement to Minister Lavrov because I don’t wish to appear as though I don’t know what has occurred in the world.”

But a South African diplomatic source said this week Modi had made a “good intervention” and that he had done so before, in 2023, when he told Putin in Russia “now is not the time for war”.

The source said he did not think Putin had been offended by Modi’s remarks in 2023 or last week, as they had a good relationship, on top of which Putin was looking for a way to end the war and probably thought Modi would be a good peace broker, given the faltering US peace efforts.

The source said he hoped Ramaphosa would repeat Modi’s message to Putin this weekend. “I hope he will say it. And I think South Africa has a moment here to also accept its position on the global stage; and given the knocks we’re taking also from the USA, to be seen to be calling for peace at the global level amidst conflict that none of us wants.”

That message could prove crucial, especially as BRICS is unlikely to address the war in Ukraine at all. When BRICS foreign ministers met in New Delhi in May to prepare for this weekend’s summit, their joint statement omitted any mention of the conflict.

They were, in any case, preoccupied with the war in Iran, which was highly divisive, as new BRICS members Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are on opposite sides of the current conflict, with Iran firing missiles at US military bases – but also other targets – in the UAE.

As a result of these divisions, the foreign ministers were unable to issue a consensus document – only a “Chair’s Statement” which detailed several points of disagreement. However, the diplomatic source said he believed the BRICS leaders would be able to issue a consensus declaration this weekend – though only by using much vaguer language than that of the foreign ministers.

Other surprises seem unlikely. For instance, an expansion of members is not expected now, especially because the addition of Iran, UAE, Ethiopia, Egypt and Indonesia since 2023 has created internal tensions – most notably over the war in Iran.

The expansion also sparked friction between South Africa and new African members Egypt and Ethiopia. Tension arose when a BRICS statement implicitly backed South Africa’s bid for a permanent UN Security Council seat alongside Brazil and India. Egypt and Ethiopia objected, noting the African Union’s official position calls for two African permanent seats, with no consensus yet on which nations should hold them.

The statement was changed to support Brazil, India and “Africa” gaining representation on the UN Security Council, and that remains the template language. DM