---
title: "The Finance Ghost: MTN — just a bump, or a bigger growth concern?"
description: "MTN remains up 21% this year, but a post-Q2 selloff left investors cautious as Nigeria’s revenue drop and Uganda’s margin compression weigh on future market guidance."
type: "NewsArticle"
publisher: "Daily Maverick"
site: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za"
section: "PHANTOM SHARES"
author: "The Finance Ghost"
author_url: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/author/thefinanceghost/"
canonical_url: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2026-08-10-the-finance-ghost-mtn-just-a-bump-or-a-bigger-growth-concern/"
published: "2026-08-10T22:51:37"
lang: "en-ZA"
word_count: 1098
---

# The Finance Ghost: MTN — just a bump, or a bigger growth concern?

> MTN remains up 21% this year, but a post-Q2 selloff left investors cautious as Nigeria’s revenue drop and Uganda’s margin compression weigh on future market guidance.

By The Finance Ghost · Published 11 August 2026, 00:51 SAST

## Key points
- Share wobble: MTN fell from ~R225 to below R205 in July (≈9% correction) though it’s still +21% YTD — valuation sits near a 19x P/E as investors ask whether the African growth story is losing steam.
- Nigeria scare: a Q2 slowdown — partly from a regulator‑driven suspension of airtime credit — sent jitters through the stock; six‑month service revenue grew 25.9% and EBITDA 39.2%, but Q1 vs Q2 growth collapsed (data 56.2%→24.9%, voice 22.5%→3.1%, fintech 77.9%→‑72.4%).
- Mixed regional picture: MTN Ghana delivered strong revenue and profit growth (service rev +32.3%) but faces a Clydestone IP legal claim; MTN Uganda saw costs bite (service rev +9.4%, EBITDA margin down 250bps, PAT ‑3.5%).
- What to watch: the upcoming MTN Group results and Q3 performance in Nigeria — unless South Africa surprises, future moves are likely to hinge on how Nigeria and other African ops recover from Q2 shocks.

## Content

At the start of July, MTN was trading at R225 per share. By the end of the month, the shares were changing hands below R205 per share. That’s a correction of roughly 9%. The first week of August hasn’t seen the price bounce back, with investors taking a very cautious approach to buying this dip.

To be fair, MTN is still up 21% year-to-date. This has been a nasty correction, but those who bought the African telecoms giant have still had a great time this year.

The bigger question is whether the stock is running out of puff — and why?

### An African growth story

MTN’s South African profits certainly matter, but the current P/E multiple of nearly 19x certainly isn’t driven by the growth prospects here at home.

The South African market is mature and highly competitive, as evidenced by Telkom’s latest quarterly revenue growth of just 2.6%. Sure, there are some underlying growth engines, but even Telkom as a market challenger is struggling to achieve more than mid-single-digit growth in areas like Telkom Mobile.

And for the market leaders, it’s even harder to keep the numbers moving in the right direction. This is precisely why MTN and Vodacom have looked for growth in Africa.

While MTN has traditionally had more exposure to West Africa, Vodacom has taken the (arguably less risky) approach of expanding in East Africa. More recently, Vodacom has pushed into Egypt, with encouraging results. MTN’s Africa story remains focused on Nigeria and Ghana as the key assets, with less important subsidiaries like Uganda in the mix as well.

As MTN’s subsidiaries are separately listed in an effort to drive local ownership, we get a look at their numbers before the mothership reports on the JSE. It was MTN Nigeria that spooked the market, so we begin there.

### The big headache: MTN Nigeria’s Q2 slowdown

MTN Nigeria has caused more grey hairs than anyone can count over the years. When the Nigerian economy is in trouble, MTN gets dragged down by the weight of macroeconomic risk and (usually) a rapidly depreciating Nigerian currency.

Conversely, when things are going well, Nigeria can be a source of excellent growth in a huge economy. If there weren’t substantial potential rewards on the table, then nobody would take the risk of operating in these countries.

Speaking of risk, it’s not just about the macroeconomics. The potential for regulatory interference is always top of mind.

MTN had to navigate a difficult second quarter thanks to the suspension of airtime credit services. A regulatory tug-of-war over short-term telecom credit advances led to MTN (and sector peers) taking the conservative route and suspending these services while the regulatory framework was clarified.

If you look at MTN Nigeria’s results for the six months to June, it looks like this was a non-event. They grew service revenue by 25.9% and Ebitda by 39.2%. Ebitda margin expanded magnificently by 5.3 percentage points to 55.9%. Free cash flow was up by 73.9%. How can this set of numbers have been the reason for a drop in the MTN share price?

The answer lies in the second quarter (Q2) performance. Things might look great over six months, but there was an incredible slowdown in growth during that period —and it can’t all be blamed on the regulatory issues. The market is worried about what this means for the rest of the year.

Data revenue jumped by 56.2% year-on-year in the first quarter (Q1), but only by 24.9% in Q2. Voice revenue grew 22.5% in Q1 vs. just 3.1% in Q2. Then we get to the fintech business, where the credit issue was felt the hardest — growth in this segment was 77.9% in Q1 vs. -72.4% in Q2!

Fintech is obviously a disaster, but there’s a good reason for why it happened. With the airtime suspension issue behind them, the hope is that growth returns to Q1 levels. The bigger concern is around data and voice revenue, which both took a significant knock that can only partially be attributed to the lack of availability of airtime on credit.

Should the market be working off the lucrative Q1 growth, or the far less exciting Q2 growth? Uncertainty is never good for share prices.

Although MTN Nigeria left the medium-term guidance unchanged and moved to reassure the market that this was only a temporary setback, MTN investors still ran for the hills after the numbers came out.

### MTN Ghana: excellent growth — with a side of legal risk

MTN Ghana grew service revenue by 32.3% for the six months to June, well ahead of the average inflation rate of 3.8%. With profit after tax up by 43.3%, it’s been a lucrative period for MTN Ghana.

Q2 service revenue was up by 29.2%, so the momentum over the period isn’t a major cause for concern (although it has slowed down vs Q1).

The bigger worry for investors is a legal claim by Clydestone, with that party claiming that MTN Ghana used its IP to launch the mobile money business. Unsurprisingly, MTN Ghana strongly denies this claim. Legal uncertainty is now the order of the day for this subsidiary.

### MTN Uganda: watch those expenses

MTN Uganda is usually one of the more reliable stories in Africa. The latest period hasn’t worked out quite as well as usual though, with fuel inflation and other cost pressures putting a dent in the Ebitda margin.

Service revenue was up by 9.4% for the six months, ahead of inflation (3.1%) but obviously not nearly as exciting as we’ve seen in Nigeria or Ghana. This relatively modest growth leaves them vulnerable to inflationary shocks, with total expenses up by 15.1%. This dropped the Ebitda margin by 250 basis points to 51.2%, bringing it perfectly in line with MTN Uganda’s medium-term guidance. This makes one wonder about the underlying cost assumptions in that guidance!

With profit after tax down by 3.5% for the period, the market will be watching for a better second half of the year.

### Now for South Africa

Although MTN Rwanda is technically up next (and might already be out by the time you read this), the real focus is on the MTN Group’s results, which will be released in the next couple of weeks.

Naturally, this will include full details on how the South African business has performed.

Will this catalyse another big move in the share price? Unless there’s a significant positive or negative surprise coming in South Africa, the answer is probably not. At this stage, the market is waiting to see how Q3 in Nigeria will play out. **DM**