---
title: "Western Cape’s driest July in decades hints at parched summer as El Niño looms"
description: "Though not El Niño-related, the Western Cape’s dry spells in July are not helping South Africa as it prepares for the predicted monster El Niño, which is expected to be felt far and wide."
type: "NewsArticle"
publisher: "Daily Maverick"
site: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za"
section: "HOT TOPIC"
author: "Ed Stoddard"
author_url: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/author/ed-stoddard/"
canonical_url: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2026-08-02-western-capes-driest-july-in-decades-hints-at-parched-summer-as-el-nino-looms/"
published: "2026-08-02T19:20:00"
lang: "en-ZA"
word_count: 625
---

# Western Cape’s driest July in decades hints at parched summer as El Niño looms

> Though not El Niño-related, the Western Cape’s dry spells in July are not helping South Africa as it prepares for the predicted monster El Niño, which is expected to be felt far and wide.

By Ed Stoddard · Published 2 August 2026, 21:20 SAST

## Key points
- Parts of the southwestern Western Cape saw their driest July on record – Cape Town International logged just 14.4mm, its lowest July rainfall in 68 years.
- A persistent Atlantic high pushed cold fronts south so typical winter rains missed the province, resulting in below‑normal rainfall from June into July, the SA Weather Service says.
- Though winter dryness isn’t directly related to El Niño (which usually hits in spring/summer), forecasters warn a strengthening – possibly record – El Niño will likely mean a hotter, drier summer for much of South Africa.
- Impacts are already visible: wheat plantings fell 8% to the smallest area since 1929; authorities urge water conservation as eastern coastal rainfall prospects have also weakened.

## Content

Parts of the southwestern Western Cape experienced their driest July ever, a harbinger of what looms ahead for much of the country as the El Niño weather pattern intensifies and looks set to become a blazing record-breaker.

“Below-normal rainfall was observed in June and persisted into July \[in the southwestern region of the province\], with several parts of the region recording their lowest rainfall on record during July,” the [South African Weather Service (SAWS)](https://www.weathersa.co.za/)said on Friday, 31 July.

![The South African Weather Service’s record of July rainfall in SA](https://cdn.dailymaverick.co.za/i/GOOLXb4xelvakLDQZpQCW9_Q7Bg=/200x100/smart/filters:strip_exif\(\)/file/attachments/orphans/Driest-July-on-record-for-the-south-western-parts-of-the-Western-Cape-1-2_722752.jpg)

*The South African Weather Service’s record of July rainfall in SA. (Image: SAWS)*

“Several severe weather systems impacted parts of the Western Cape during May and early June 2026, which significantly improved water storage across many parts of the province. Since then, a strong blocking Atlantic high-pressure system to the west of the country has driven cold frontal systems further south of the province.”

And as those cold fronts missed the province the rains they would typically unleash did not fall over it. Cape Town International Airport recorded only 14.4mm in July, its lowest reading for the month in 68 years.

![Image](https://cdn.dailymaverick.co.za/i/zKPu2Tul0GHEepm4PuBFnfgSdRQ=/200x100/smart/filters:strip_exif\(\)/file/attachments/2995/dm-is-this-the-driest-july-the-western-cape-has-seen-in-nearly-_522184.png)

### **Winter wheat crop worry**

The SAWS has for months been forecasting a relatively dry winter for the southwestern parts of the Western Cape, and that has come to pass with worrying consequences including for the winter wheat crop.

[CATCH UP

Weather Watch: El Niño may emerge soon with dry winter seen for southwest SA

May 4, 2026 ![Image](https://cdn.dailymaverick.co.za/i/Q2VagqYsUDrSgVayEalBguq8UQ0=/450x0/smart/file/attachments/orphans/P17edelnino_389086.jpg)](https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2026-05-04-weather-watch-el-nino-may-emerge-soon-with-dry-winter-seen-for-southwest-sa/)

“These unfavourable weather conditions continue to weigh on agricultural activity, particularly the winter crops. It is unsurprising that in 2026, South Africa planted about 473,000 hectares of wheat, which is 8% below last year. Remarkably, this is the smallest area planted to wheat since 1929,” said Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber.

These dry spells were not directly linked to the unfolding El Niño, which typically only bares its fangs over South Africa in the spring and summer months. In winter, the weather over South Africa’s southwest is mostly driven by by mid-latitude cyclones originating over the Southern Ocean.

### **Heralding drought**

![El Niño is expected to bring dryer and warmer conditions in South Africa this coming summer.](https://cdn.dailymaverick.co.za/i/LlbYMaNkzimaN5CkMtP0G-rTVZA=/200x100/smart/filters:strip_exif\(\)/file/attachments/2992/04droughtGettyImages-1012073808_541520.jpg)

*The South African Weather Service predicts that South Africa will experience El Niño’s typical impacts of dryer and warmer conditions this coming summer. (Photo: Thomas Lohnes / Getty Images)*

But the effects of this [El Niño](https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2026-01-28-loaded-for-bear-after-deluge-drought-ell-nino-will-likely-return-in-2026-and-sa/) – widely forecast to potentially be the strongest on record – will soon be felt far and wide across South Africa. Triggered by a warming of surface sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific, it usually heralds drought in this region.

> ‘Given the current uncertainty regarding rainfall during the 2027 winter season, the public is encouraged to use water sparingly in the coming months’

“As El Niño is expected to strengthen further over the coming months, the likelihood of a warmer-than-normal summer over the Western Cape is expected to rise. Given the current uncertainty regarding rainfall during the 2027 winter season, the public is encouraged to use water sparingly in the coming months,” the SAWS said.

On Friday, the SAWS also issued its monthly Seasonal Climate Watch, which looks five months ahead – in this case until the end of December – and El Niño has now taken centre stage in the outlook.

“It is expected that South Africa will experience its typical impacts of dryer and warmer conditions during this coming summer,” the report said.

Worryingly, it reversed its previous forecast that the eastern coastal regions would have above-normal late winter and spring rainfall.

“The eastern coastal areas indicate a likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions which is significant as those areas start moving into their rainfall season,” the SAWS said.

The bottom line is that this summer looks set to be long, hot and parched. If you’re shivering now from the winter chill, get ready to sweat. **DM**