Indian people wade through a flooded street during heavy rain in Vasai, on the outskirts of Mumbai, India, 08 July 2026. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued an orange alert for Mumbai, Thane, Palghar and Raigad due to continuous and extremely heavy rainfall. Heavy rain in the city has affected traffic and delayed local trains. EPA/DIVYAKANT SOLANKI The monsoon delivers about 70% of India’s annual rains to replenish crucial water sources in the nearly $4 trillion economy, where nearly half of farmland lacks irrigation and about half the population earns its livelihood from agriculture.
“The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is unlikely to be favourable over the next fortnight and the chances of any low-pressure system developing during this period are also low,” S. D. Sanap, a scientist with the India Meteorological Department (IMD), told Reuters.
“As a result, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala are likely to receive below-average rainfall.”
An MJO is an eastward-moving band of clouds, rain and winds that circles the tropics every 30 to 60 days. It is a key driver of short-term monsoon activity, with its active phase boosting rainfall and its suppressed phase often bringing dry spells.
India received 39.8% below-average rainfall in June and the IMD has forecast below-average rainfall for July as well.
Heavy rain during the first eight days of July, particularly along the west coast, shrank the country’s rainfall deficit to 15.2%. However, the deficit is expected to widen again in the coming days as the monsoon enters a break, said a weather department official who declined to be identified because they were not authorized to speak to the media.
The sowing of summer crops like rice, cotton, corn and soybeans has trailed last year’s pace due to weak June rainfall, with farmers planting 35 million hectares (86.5 million acres) as of July 5, down 21% from a year earlier, farm ministry data showed.
“Farmers have been advised to cultivate short-duration and low-water-intensive crops such as corn, pearl millet and green gram to minimise the impact of delayed rainfall,” said Shivraj Singh Chouhan, the farm minister, on Wednesday.
Farmers in central, western and southern India will begin sowing in rainfed areas after the recent showers, but if a dry spell follows immediately, it could affect crop growth, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading house.
(Reporting by Rajendra Jadhav; Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus)