---
title: "New Zealand declares El Niño conditions, strong event likely"
description: "WELLINGTON, July 2 (Reuters) - Earth Sciences New Zealand declared El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific on Thursday, warning impacts on the country’s weather are expected to intensify through the coming months."
type: "NewsArticle"
publisher: "Daily Maverick"
site: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za"
section: "World"
author: "Reuters"
author_url: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/author/reuters/"
canonical_url: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2026-07-02-new-zealand-declares-el-nino-conditions-strong-event-likely/"
published: "2026-07-02T04:38:21"
lang: "en-ZA"
word_count: 156
---

# New Zealand declares El Niño conditions, strong event likely

> WELLINGTON, July 2 (Reuters) - Earth Sciences New Zealand declared El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific on Thursday, warning impacts on the country’s weather are expected to intensify through the coming months.

By Reuters · Published 2 July 2026, 06:38 SAST

## Content

The agency said there is an 80% likelihood the event will reach or exceed strong intensity during the July-September period, with effects peaking over the 2026-27 summer.

• Rainfall is likely to be near or below normal for the north and east of the South Island and the east of the North Island, with below-normal rainfall most likely for the rest of the North Island.

• The west of the South Island is likely to see above-normal rainfall.

• Air temperatures are equally likely to be near or above average nationwide, though cold snaps and frosts are expected.

• Increasingly windy and variable conditions are anticipated later in winter and into spring as El Niño signals strengthen.

• Two lower-probability risks remain under monitoring: sudden stratospheric warming events, which have become more frequent in recent years, and the remote possibility of an out-of-season tropical cyclone, historically associated only with El Niño years.

(Reporting by Lucy Craymer)