England scalp is on the Springboks’ to-do list

The prevailing philosophy in South African rugby for many years, and in the early seasons of Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus’s tenure, was that World Cups were all that mattered and lesser tournaments and fixtures could be sacrificed for the sake of a greater goal.

South Africa’s focus on big tournaments yielded two World Cup titles and a series victory against the British & Irish Lions, and by the end of 2023, many hailed the players and coaches as the greatest of all time.

But much has changed since the 2023 World Cup triumph in Paris, as the Boks have shifted gears over the course of 2024 and 2025 to secure back-to-back Rugby Championship titles and an overall win record of 86%. As a result, South African fans have started to expect a lot more from their team than was the case two years ago.

Erasmus has been consistent with his messaging over the past few months, prioritising Rugby World Cup 2027 in the long term as well as the Greatest Rivalry series against the All Blacks later this year.

He has played down the importance of the inaugural Nations Championship, at least in the context of the team’s ­other priorities. At the same time, he has spoken about his team’s quest to retain the World Rugby No 1 ranking and make a statement against other leading sides.

Defeat against England, Scotland or Wales in July would represent a failure for this all-conquering Bok side, and although there is talk of a more experimental side travelling to Europe for the second phase of the Nations Championship in November, the team will want to maintain a mental grip on Italy, France and Ireland.

Nations Championship or not, there is no reason to take any of those six fixtures lightly. The result of the Greatest Rivalry series in August and September will define their season, but there’s a good chance that they will emerge from the Nations Championship league phase with five or six wins and advance to the inaugural final in London at the end of November.

Of course, the outlook for the Nations Championship campaign, as well as the Greatest Rivalry series and even the 2027 World Cup, will seem less promising if the Boks lose to England at Ellis Park on 4 July.

Unique format

The Nations Championship will raise the stakes for matches staged in the July and November Test windows in that the respective teams will be playing for log points as well as results.

The twelve teams have been split into two conferences, with the Six Nations sides ­featuring in the north and the Rugby Championship teams as well as Fiji and Japan in the south. Every team from the north will face every southern side, and at the conclusion of the league phase, the top-ranked teams from each conference will advance to the decider.

The Springboks will begin their campaign against England in Johannesburg, before going up against Scotland in Pretoria and Wales in Durban. Even if they win all three matches, they may need other results in Australasia to go their way to finish the first phase of the tournament at the top of the southern ­conference. The All Blacks might claim more log points over the course of their fixtures against France, Italy and Ireland in New Zealand.

This example illustrates how the league will work and how the Boks and the All Blacks – the highest-ranked teams in the southern hemisphere conference – will be competing against one another as well as the respective teams from the north.

It’s plain to see why the leading contenders will look to bank as many log points as possible on home soil. Most people will expect the Boks to win all their Tests this July, and recent form suggests that two or three of these victories may be complemented by a four-try bonus point.

England are coming off four consecutive Six Nations losses and will travel to Ellis Park without regular captain Maro Itoje and other front-line forwards. Scotland have never won a Test in South Africa, whereas Wales have lost 24 out of 27 Tests in the current four-year cycle.

In terms of attack, Erasmus’s charges have been particularly potent since former All Blacks flyhalf Tony Brown joined the coaching staff, averaging 4.4 tries a game in 2024 and a whopping 5.8 in 2025.

Taking all of the above into consideration, it’s easy to understand why great things are expected of the Boks in this tournament and throughout an important 2026 Test season.

Setting the tone

Erasmus may see things differently. In 2023, he and the then head coach, Jacques Nienaber, went out of their way to highlight the importance of the opening World Cup pool match against Scotland.

The Boks went into that game as overwhelming favourites, but the coaching staff told anyone who would listen that a successful campaign hinged on a winning start and South Africa couldn’t afford to be complacent.

The same mindset may apply in this scenario. Everything points to a Bok win at Ellis Park, but nothing should be taken for granted, given the history around this match-up and that Erasmus and Steve Borthwick’s charges have enjoyed some particularly close battles over the past few years.

In preparing his team, Erasmus may point to the Boks’ most recent game at Ellis Park in 2025, which ended in a 38-22 defeat to Australia. The Boks went into that clash as favourites, but they were duly humbled by a more disciplined Wallabies side.

The result should endure as an important lesson. The Boks have won multiple trophies and achieved an 86% winning record, but on any given day, they remain beatable – even at Ellis Park.

As was the case at the 2023 World Cup, Erasmus will have a good idea of what victory or defeat will signify in the context of the Boks’ overall campaign. A loss to England may force Erasmus to alter his plans for ­subsequent matches against Scotland and Wales, in an attempt to secure victories. Even if they finish the July matches with two wins from three games, they may fail to realise their development goals.

If the Boks get the job done in July, they will take some momentum into the all-important series against the All Blacks. If they come through that subsequent series with a victory, they will be free to attack the final stage of the Nations Championship without fear of failure.

As they prepare to battle England and look ahead to the monumental series against the All Blacks, the Nations Championship title won’t matter much to the Boks at this stage. Nevertheless, in the process of building momentum, they may finish the first phase of the Nations Championship in a strong position.

Looking ahead, there’s evidence to ­suggest that they can win three consecutive Tests in the north in November, before facing the winner of the northern conference in the final. Erasmus’s side won five Tests in Europe last year, despite the coach’s decision to rotate the team on a weekly basis.

Erasmus may be developing a wider squad with RWC 2027 in mind, but the 2025 tour served as ideal preparation for an intense Greatest Rivalry schedule as well as the final four weeks of the Nations Championship.

Other southern hemisphere teams are not as well stocked and may struggle to achieve the same level of consistency at the back end of a gruelling season.

There will be setbacks across the Test schedule, as was the case in 2024 and 2025. If he had a choice, Erasmus might opt for a loss or two in the Nations Championship league phase, rather than in a series decider against the All Blacks, or in a potential final at the end of November.

That choice will surely preclude the opening game of the Nations Championship, which will double as the Boks’ first Test of the 2026 season. England will view the clash as an opportunity to make a statement, but so too will the Boks.

A victory against England will set them on the high road in the context of both the new tournament and the bigger clashes to come. DM

This story first appeared in our weekly DM168 newspaper, available countrywide for R35.