The Real Scoreline: Can South Africa avoid climate knockout?

As nations compete on the global stage at the FIFA World Cup, researchers at the University of Reading have created a different kind of scoreboard, one that shows how countries stack up on climate change.

The Real Scoreline assesses competing countries against six climate indicators – warming (projected temperature change), projected rainfall change, CO₂ emissions per person, heat stress exposure, fossil fuel dependence, and net-zero commitments – scoring them out of 99 to reveal how they compare beyond the traditional scoreboard.

For South Africa, the results read like a red card. With an overall score of just 38 out of 99, the nation sits firmly in the lower third of the global table. Despite modest per-capita carbon emissions compared to major industrial nations, South Africa is penalised by a heavy dependency on fossil fuels, combined with a looming defense crisis: severe projected warming and volatile rainfall shifts, dragging its overall score down.

In Group A, South Africa is at the bottom of the climate table, performing worse than it did on the pitch, behind Mexico, South Korea, and Czechia, which scored highest.

Created with the University of Reading’s world-leading climate and weather experts, the data is visualised as virtual playing cards wrapped in the University of Reading’s iconic “climate stripes,” making the existential data instantly readable.

Professor Emily Black, Professor of Meteorology at the University of Reading, said:

‘South Africa’s score reflects a country under serious climate pressure. Considerable projected warming, high precipitation shifts, and a heavy reliance on fossil fuels make for a difficult scorecard. Our research has identified southern Africa as one of the emerging hotspots for agricultural drought under climate change.’

‘The Real Scoreline shows us that the real contest is not on the pitch, it is whether South Africa can mobilise the ambition to match the scale of the challenge it faces. The talent is here. What is needed now is a game plan,’ comments Jon Foster-Pedley, Dean and Director of Henley Business School Africa, and Associate Pro-Vice-Chancellor (Global Engagement, Sub Saharan Africa) at the University of Reading.

‘With Europe experiencing one of its most extreme summers on record, it’s becoming increasingly clear that climate risk is no longer a distant environmental issue; it is an economic and social emergency. Africa did not create this crisis, yet we are on the frontlines of its impact. The defining metric of future leadership here will be how quickly we build resilience.’

Foster-Pedley adds that business schools and universities have a critical role to play in preparing the next generation of leaders and professionals to think and act differently in the face of this crisis. The University of Reading and Henley Business School are taking the lead in making sure these issues are brought to the forefront of public consciousness through community-led science, high-profile international partnerships, public events, and striking visual designs, most famously its climate stripes, which offer a stark, visual barcode of chronological warming temperatures used worldwide.

A key part of the mental shift needed means moving beyond traditional concepts of competition toward a more collaborative mindset.

‘The whistle has blown, but this is a tournament unlike any other,’ says Foster-Pedley. ‘It’s unlikely to be won by a solitary striker and there is no glory for individual triumph. This is a game where we either win together or lose together. The real victory will lie in embracing a radical global partnership to build resilience and preparedness for all.’

The top-ranked teams in the Real Scoreline

The top five

1. Paraguay (75) scores highest of all 48 nations, with low carbon emissions per person, stable projected rainfall and an ambitious net-zero target of 2030.
2. England (73) and Scotland (73) score identically, sharing climate data as part of the United Kingdom. Both score well for low heat stress and stable projected temperatures, though high fossil fuel dependency holds them back.
3. New Zealand (72) benefits from relatively low projected warming and among the lowest heat stress of any competing nation, though its per-capita emissions remain a drag on its score.
4. Austria (71) stands out for having one of the most stable projected rainfall patterns of any competing nation and a net-zero target of 2040, earlier than most.

The bottom five

1. Iran (33) faces severe projected warming and is almost entirely dependent on fossil fuels, which account for 98% of its energy.
2. Iraq (30) shares similarly stark figures, with near-total fossil fuel dependency and among the most severe projected warming and rainfall disruption in the tournament.
3. USA (26) produces over 14 tonnes of carbon emissions per person and is the only competing nation with no net-zero target at all.
4. Qatar (24) has the highest carbon emissions per person of any nation in the tournament at 40 tonnes, more than double its nearest rival, and is almost entirely fossil fuel dependent.
5. Saudi Arabia (7) scores lowest of all 48 nations, combining the most severe projected warming, the highest fossil fuel dependency and a net zero target not until 2060.

Download The Real Scoreline climate performance cards via The Real Scoreline

View and download the raw data, an explainer document and climate performance cards via Google Drive. DM