DA, ANC dominate in Rustenburg and Bushbuckridge wards to boost November poll confidence

Ward 15 (Safari Tuine Protea Park) Rustenburg, Bojanala: DA 81% (72%) VF+ 19% (23%) ANC <1% (3%)

The setting: Ward 15 is southwest of the Rustenburg town centre, next to the N4 national road which links Brits with Swartruggens. It has two suburbs in its boundaries, Safari Tuine and Protea Park. Rustenburg has produced sport superstars including Rugby World Cup-winning captain John Smit and champion javelin thrower Sunette Viljoen. Rustenburg is the most-populous North West municipality and the municipality with the 13th-most registered voters in South Africa.

The 2021 local government election: The DA won more than 70% of the vote in the ward. The Freedom Front Plus (FF+) was the only other party to get into double percentage figures with a 23% haul. Both the DA and the FF+ did marginally better in the Protea Park voting district.

The 2024 provincial election: The DA won 76% of the vote, up from 60% in 2019, with the FF+ in second place with 12%, down from 27% in 2019. The ANC was third with 5%. This was the ward where the DA and the FF+ performed best in Rustenburg in 2024.

The by-election: The ward councillor died after a long illness. The DA cantered to victory in a by-election in which the results were very similar in the two voting districts. The party won 81% of the vote in both districts, while the FF+ also obtained 19% support in both. The DA avoided a North West banana peel. In the lead-up to the 2021 elections, the FF+ has won wards off the DA in Potchefstroom, Stilfontein and Schweizer-Reneke. It has not taken any from the DA in North West between 2021 and 2026.

Poll: 22% (50%)

Ward 3 (Mkhuhlu Calcutta) Bushbuckridge, Ehlanzeni: ANC 85% (67%) EFF 15% (32%)

The setting: Ward 3 sits above the Phabeni Gate entrance to the Kruger National Park, and just above the Sabie River in the southern part of Bushbuckridge. The ward comprises the sprawling Mkhuhlu and Calcutta townships. Bushbuckridge is 14th on the list of municipalities with the highest number of voters. The most widely spoken language is Xitsonga.

The 2024 by-election:The ANC won more than two-thirds of the vote in the by-election. It achieved this by improving its vote share in five of the six districts. The EFF won the vote-rich Mbatini Primary School district with 53%. The Hoxani Tribal Centre is the second-most-populous district in the ward. The ANC grew from 72% to 79%, while the EFF landed on 20%. At Mapetekoane Primary School, the third-most vote-rich district in the ward, the ANC went from 71% to 78%, while the EFF came in with 22% support.

The Makhosana High School voting district results were an outlier – here the ANC fell from 62% to 51%, while the EFF ran it close with 48% support.

The 2024 provincial election: The ANC won 70% of the vote, down from 87% as the EFF made inroads in the districts that make up this ward, walking away with a solid 23%, well up from 6% in 2019. uMkhonto Wesizwe (MKP) was a distant third with 3%.

The by-election: The new ward councillor died after a short illness. The ANC beat the EFF by 1,966 votes. It won more than 90% in four of the six districts. The Hoxani Tribal Centre is where the ANC did best with a 91% return.

The ANC won the most-populous district, Mbatini Primary School, with 82%. The EFF’s best showing was at Bejane Primary School where it garnered 28%.

The ANC will be supremely confident in its electoral form in the Ehlanzeni district in general and Bushbuckridge in particular as it heads to the local government elections.

Poll: 33% (41%)

This was the final round of by-elections for the period after the 2021 local government elections and before the 2026 local elections. The next time South Africans go to the polls will be on 4 November 2026. DM