Electoral Commission officials prepare a voting station at a church in Alexandra for local elections in Johannesburg on 18 May 2011. (Photo: EPA / Kim Ludbrook) /file/dailymaverick/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/label-analysis-2.jpg)
Ward 1 (Duncan Village Pefferville) Buffalo City: ANC 45% (46%) DA 23% (41%) UDM 16% (1%) PA 13% (1%) EFF 1% (8%) SACP 1% PCM <1% (1%) OLA <1%
The setting: Ward 1 is west of the KuGompo City (formerly East London) centre. It has three distinct residential areas. Duncan Village is a township which has produced world-champion boxers Mbulelo Botile and Phumelela Cafu. Pefferville was proclaimed a coloured area during apartheid. Braelyn has historically had a strong Indian and Muslim community.
The 2021 local government elections: The ANC beat the DA by 178 votes and won the ward because of its wide margins over the DA in Duncan Village – 44% of the voters in the ward were registered in Duncan Village. The ANC beat the DA by 554 and 385 votes in the two Duncan Village districts, winning 70% and 71% of the vote, respectively. The DA beat the EFF in those two districts, taking 17% and 14%. The EFF garnered 12% in both districts. The turnout in Duncan Village was slightly higher than the ward average, with 41% of the registered voting population showing up.
The DA won the other three voting districts, but it was not enough to make up the difference. In Pefferville, where 28% of the registered voters in the ward live, the DA won 60% against the ANC’s 30%, with a 303-vote margin. The Patriotic Alliance (PA) obtained only 1% support in Pefferville, finishing behind the local Progressive Community Movement (PCM) (4%) and the EFF (3%). The turnout in Pefferville was slightly lower than the ward average, at 37%.
In Braelyn, the DA won 69% and 53% of the vote, with the ANC second on 20% and 28%. The DA’s margin in Braelyn was 383 and 75 votes, respectively. The EFF was third there with 5% and 8%. The turnout in Braelyn was the same as Duncan Village (41%). Braelyn accounted for about 27% of the voters’ roll in 2021.
The 2024 provincial elections: The ANC came first here with 42% support, followed by the DA on 32%. The EFF was third with 12% and the PA fourth with 6%. The United Democratic Movement (UDM) managed 2%. The DA was hurt by the PA in the ward, and the ANC by the EFF.
The by-election: Kuhle Ciliza, the ANC ward councillor, defected to the PA with two other ANC councillors. Ciliza was on the ballot for the PA in the by-election. It was a crowded field which included the South African Community Party (SACP) and local parties, One Love Alliance (OLA) and the PCM.
The ANC retained the ward comfortably, beating the DA by 831 votes. In Pefferville, the turnout was just below the ward average. The ANC was not affected by the PA defection. It increased its percentage vote share from 30% t0 45%. The PA surged to second place with 27% from only 1% in 2021, while the DA plunged from 60% to 25%. It is evident that the DA lost the bulk of its support to the PA in Pefferville, but also lost support to the ANC.
In Duncan Village, the ANC lost ground to the UDM. Its support declined from a respective 71% to 54% and also from 70% to 62%. The UDM received an impressive 27% and 35% support. Both the DA and the EFF’s support totally collapsed in Duncan Village, with each party only obtaining 1%, after winning more than 10% in 2021. The PA was third in Duncan Village with 8%. In Duncan Village, ANC and DA support went to the PA, while the UDM picked up voters from the ANC and the EFF. The turnout in Duncan Village was higher than the ward average with a turnout of 48% and 50%, respectively.
On a poor night for the DA the Braelyn voting districts were an exception. The party’s combined vote share grew in these districts from 64% to 74%, while the ANC’s shrank from 22% to 14% and the PA moved from 1% to 8%. As per 2021, Braelyn had a poor turnout, with only 32% of voters showing up.
In the final Ward 1 analysis, the ANC was able to replicate its 2021 showing with good growth in Pefferville, and while losing ground in Duncan Village, the high relative turnout there masked the losses in Duncan Village and Braelyn.
The UDM and PA will be encouraged by their performance in this by-election. At present the UDM has only one seat in the metro and the PA none. This result suggests both parties will increase their representation on the council come November.
The DA losing voters to both the PA and ANC will concern the party. Its Pefferville and Duncan Village results were not pretty. It was an especially poor result for the EFF. The party increased its percentage vote share in Buffalo City from 12% to 16% on the provincial ballot. It almost replaced the DA as the second-most-popular party in the metro. Its support crumbled from 8% to 1%. It was also a woeful showing by the SACP which found no chemistry with Ward 1 voters and finished on 1%.
Poll: 41% (40%)
Ward 10 (Buffalo Flats Amalinda) Buffalo City: ANC 65% (55% PR) PA 13% (2% PR) DA 12% (17% PR) EFF 5% (11% PR) UDM 3% (1% PR) OLA 2% PCM <1% (1% PR)
The setting: Ward 10 is west of the KuGompo City centre and west of Ward 1, in the area known as East Bank. Most of the voters in the ward are in Amalinda, with Buffalo Flats also having a sizeable chunk. Ward 10 also includes Scenery Park, Fathridge, parts of Braelyn and a sliver of Sheridan Park.
The 2021 local government election: The ANC beat the DA by 1,165 votes for a comfortable win in Ward 10 on the proportional representation (PR) ballot. The EFF was third. They were the only parties to get into double percentage figures.
Amalinda was key for the ANC. It won 71% of the vote at the National Baptist Church voting district, with the EFF also getting its best return with 20%.
The ANC swept the remaining districts. Its second-best showing was 55% on the PR ballot in Scenery Park at the New Generation School.
The DA came second in three of the four voting districts. It garnered 26% on the PR ballot at the River of Life Day Care Centre in Buffalo Flats, and 22% at the Clements Kadalie Community Centre, a voting district which includes four different suburbs in the district.
The EFF got into double percentage figures in two of the four voting districts. It took 14% at the Clements Kadalie Community Centre, its second-best showing after the 20% showing in Amalinda.
The PR ballot is our 2021 mode of comparison since an independent candidate won 15% of the vote in 2021 on the ward ballot to finish third in the ward. The candidate did not contest this by-election.
The 2024 provincial election: The ANC came first with 47% of the vote, winning all four voting districts. The DA was second with 17%, just ahead of the EFF on 16%. The PA was fourth with 10% and the UDM fifth with 4%. The DA was hurt by the PA and the EFF in this ward, while the ANC was affected by the EFF’s growth. The EFF replaced the DA as the second-most-popular party at Clements Kadalie Community Hall.
The by-election: ANC ward councillor Pearl Hansen defected to the PA with two other colleagues. She was not chosen as the PA’s candidate in the by-election. There were seven parties on the ballot here, including the local PCM and OLA. The proportional representation (PR) ballot is the mode of comparison here as an independent ran in 2021 on the ward ballot who was not part of the by-election equation.
The ANC beat the PA by 1,631 votes, with the party falling just short of the two-thirds mark. It won more than 50% in all four voting districts. Its best showing was 80% at the Clements Kadalie Hall, well up from 47% in 2021. However, the turnout was only 20% here, almost half of the ward average. The ANC excelled again at Amalinda with 79%, up from 71% in 2021. The turnout here was just above the ward average.
The PA came second in the ward, getting 18% at the River of Life Centre in Buffalo Flats and 19% at the New Generation School in Scenery Park. The DA finished behind the PA in these two districts, obtaining 16% support at River of Life and 14% at New Generation School. The DA beat the PA at Clements Kadalie Hall, but it was not enough to catch up to the PA which ended with 20 more votes than the DA.
The EFF’s support more than halved in the ward. Its best return was 9% at New Generation School in Scenery Park. The UDM did not do as well in Ward 10 as it did in Ward 1. Amalinda was where it found the most purchase with 10% of the vote.
The ANC will be delighted with this show of force in Ward 10, while the PA established an important foothold in Ward 10.
Poll: 38% (41%)
The next round of by-elections will be on 24 June 2026. This will be the final round of by-elections before the local government elections. The DA will defend a seat in Rustenburg, North West, while the ANC will look to retain a safe seat in Calcutta in Bushbuckridge, Mpumalanga. DM