Voters queue to cast their ballots in the municipal elections in Atteridgeville, Pretoria, on 18 May 2011. (Photo: Gallo Images / Nelius Rademan) /file/dailymaverick/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/label-analysis-2.jpg)
The PA won its first ward in the ZF Mgcawu district by beating the DA in Dawid Kruiper (Upington), while the ANC won outright control of the Siyathemba (Prieska) municipality.
Northern Cape
Ward 15 (Rosedale Upington) Dawid Kruiper, ZF Mgcawu: PA 37% (1%) ANC 32% (38%) DA 29% (47%) RESTORSA 2%
The setting: Rosedale is west of the Upington town centre, near the outskirts of the town. It sits away from the Orange River and the N2 national road. Rosedale has a monument to “Ouma Griet” Magrieta Jantjies, one of the last known speakers of the N!uu Language. Upington produced the famous actor Shaleen Surtie-Richards and business titan Christo Wiese.
The 2021 local government election: The DA beat the ANC by 135 votes in Ward 15. A regional party, Khoisan Revolution, was third with 9%.
This was one of the three wards won by the DA in the Dawid Kruiper Municipality, with the ANC winning the other 14. Key to the DA’s victory was its performance in the less-populated Prince of Peace International Ministries voting district in the lower part of the ward, where it won 61% of the vote while the ANC only received 33%. The margin of victory was 146 votes.
The ANC came first in the more-populated Piet Thole Community Hall voting district with 41%, beating the DA by nine votes as the latter finished on 40%, followed by Khoisan Revolution with 12%.
The 2024 provincial election: The DA came first with 47%, followed by the ANC with 33%. The DA won both voting districts in the ward. The PA made strides in the ward, mostly at the expense of the ANC, coming third with 17%.
The by-election: The DA ward councillor resigned. A new party, Restoration SA (RESTOR), was on the ballot.
The PA shocked the DA and the ANC, beating the ANC by 176 votes and the DA by 257. The PA won one of the two voting districts, taking the Piet Thole Community Hall district with 39% of the vote. Piet Thole Hall had an impressive 64% turnout. Here the PA beat the ANC by 111 votes and the DA by 338.
While the DA won the Prince of Peace International Ministries voting district with 45%, it was hurt by the PA which came second with 32%. The ANC also fell here, to 23%.
The PA now has its first councillor in Dawid Kruiper. The DA falls from 12 seats to 11. In 2021, the PA won a paltry 63 votes across all 17 Dawid Kruiper wards. In this by-election, in one single ward, the PA amassed 1,115 votes. This is incredible growth for the PA a few months before the local government elections in an important Northern Cape municipality.
The turnout in this by-election is a significant part of the analysis here. It increased from 47% to 63%. However, the real numbers are even more illuminating. In 2021, 1,556 votes were cast in the ward. In the by-election it was almost double that, with 2,971 voters entering the polling stations. We know that turnout is generally higher in national elections than local government elections and by-elections. In this by-election, 1,005 more voters put ballots into the box compared with the 2024 elections.
The voters’ roll here was 43% higher than 2021 and 37% higher than 2024. This is in sharp contrast to the Siyathemba ward and the Matlosana ward, the other wards contested yesterday, when both had a respective 3% voters’ roll growth compared with 2021.
Poll: 63% (47%)
Ward 2 (Prieska Bonteheuwel) Siyathemba, Pixley Ka Seme: ANC (39%) d’Bokke (incumbent) SGB (55%)
The setting: Ward 2 is northwest of the Prieska town centre. Prieska is on the banks of the Orange River. The N10 national road passes close to the town which is known for its pecan nut, grain and cattle farming. Zinkplaat lead singer Bertie Coetzee put a hold on his Afrikaans rock music career to become a celebrated winemaker and farmer in the Prieska area. Former Olympic marathon runner Gert Thys also hails from Prieska.
The 2021 local government election: A new local party, the Siyathemba Gemeenskap Beweging (SGB), shocked the ANC in Ward 2, beating them by 199 votes. The SGB won both voting districts with a similar percentage, and also hurt the DA in this ward as the party only obtained 5% support.
The ANC failed to win an outright majority in the council, falling one seat short. This was largely because of its performance in Ward 2. The party won five of 11 seats, with the SGB winning four and the DA taking two. The only ward not won by the ANC was Ward 2.
The 2024 provincial elections: The ANC was the most popular party here, with 48% support. The SGB was not on the ballot. The Northern Cape Communities Movement (NCCM) was second with 33% and the DA third with 14%, while the PA garnered 2%.
The by-election: Ward councillor Ronald Februarie resigned from the council and left the SGB to form a new local party, d’Bokke. He elected to stand in the by-election and was endorsed by the NCCM.
The municipality is currently governed by an ANC-SGB grand coalition. The by-election comes as the mayoral chain is held by the SGB and the speaker’s chair is occupied by the ANC.
The ANC beat d’Bokke by 75 votes to win Ward 2 and complete a clean sweep of wards in Siyathemba. The party won both voting districts. The more-populous Omega Community Hall was key to its win. It beat d’Bokke by 74 votes here and won 52% of the vote.
Ronald Februarie, the leader of d’Bokke, is now without a council job. He will draw some consolation from the fact that it was unambiguous who was the ANC’s main rival in the ward. He beat the SGB candidate by 429 votes. The SGB’s support collapsed in the ward and it is now also likely to lose the mayoral chain.
The ANC now has six of the 11 seats and no longer requires a coalition with the SGB. The ANC has the numbers to elect a mayor from its ranks for the remainder of this term. The SGB falls to three seats in the 11-seat council.
Poll: 57% (65%)
North West
Ward 20 (Orkney Kanana South) Matlosana, Dr Kenneth Kaunda: ANC 81% (72%) PA 11% EFF 8% (18%)
The setting: Ward 20 is south of Klerksdorp, the seat of power in Matlosana. It is west of the gold-mining town of Orkney, separated from the town by the R30 regional road which links Klerksdorp with the Free State and Bothaville. The ward lies close to the Vaal River and the Free State border.
Sesotho is the main spoken language in Kanana, followed by isiXhosa and Setswana.
The 2021 local government election: The ANC won here by a big landslide, taking more than 70% of the vote. The EFF was the only other party to get into double percentage figures. The provincial Form 4 Service Delivery (F4SD) was a distant third with 4%, followed by the DA on 3%.
The 2024 provincial election: The ANC was dominant again, but this time fell just shy of the 70% mark with 69%. The EFF was a clear second again with 14%. The DA came third with 5%, while the Patriotic Alliance (PA) was sixth with 1%.
The by-election: Ward councillor Molefi Sello was stabbed to death during an altercation outside a tavern. His alleged killer handed himself over to the police. It was not considered an assassination.
The ANC romped home in this by-election, beating the second-placed PA by 872 votes. The ANC too was able to win more than 80% of the vote, which is a very encouraging sign a few months before the local government election. The party did best at the Bathabile Primary School where it obtained 84% support.
The PA will be very satisfied with a second-place finish. It beat the far more established EFF for the silver medal and will have a good footing in Orkney and surrounds in the local government election. The EFF’s vote share declined by more than half of its 2021 percentage vote share and continues on a downward trajectory from 2024.
Poll: 34% (39%)
The next round of by-elections will be on 27 May when the ANC will defend two seats – at Evaton in Emfuleni, Gauteng, and in the village of Masutlhe, west of Mahikeng in the Mafikeng municipality. DM