Will President Cyril Ramaphosa resign? Five questions we answer for you

Will President Cyril Ramaphosa resign or face an impeachment panel?

When the Section 89 panel report was first published in June 2022, President Cyril Ramaphosa almost resigned until persuaded against doing so by senior ANC leaders. The EFF has won a slam-dunk victory in the Constitutional Court which found that the rule Parliament relied on to avoid tabling and discussing the report before putting it to a vote is unconstitutional. Parliament is a very different place to what it was in 2022 before the ANC’s loss of its majority in the 2024 election. The opposition is bigger and far more empowered than it was in 2022.

The ad hoc inquiry into the allegations made by KZN Provincial Police Commissioner Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi is an example of what he could face from an impeachment committee. It’s unclear if the urbane Ramaphosa, who prefers one-way communication and negotiation to robust political cut and thrust, has the stomach for it. He may resign or bring all the defences he has placed before other courts and three institutional investigations about Phala Phala to the committee. The president’s team has also drawn up detailed legal documents pointing out the shortcomings of the Section 89 panel report.

Is the EFF the kingmaker here?

Yes, undoubtedly.

As the gavel came down on Chief Justice Mandisa Maya’s most significant judgment since she took over the top Bench in 2024, EFF leader Julius Malema broke into a huge smile. The judgment, a slam dunk in which the EFF won with costs, is both a testament to the party’s legal strategy of defending the rule of law and a saving of his political bacon. Malema was sentenced to five years in prison for the unlawful possession and reckless discharging of a firearm in the KuGompo Magistrate’s Court in April. The case is on appeal, and this judgment gives Malema a chance to vindicate himself as a defender of good governance. Immediately after the judgment, Malema held a rally outside the Constitutional Court while supporters marched through Johannesburg.

He immediately called on Ramaphosa to resign and set out chapter and verse of how he would interrogate the president on the impeachment committee. A master of the political ring, he will capitalise on the proceedings. Malema is increasingly close to the ANC. The EFF has formed a coalition government with the ANC in Gauteng, probably now a model of how the Government of National Unity (GNU) could be reshaped.

What will the DA do?

The opposition Democratic Alliance is also the ANC’s lead partner in the GNU, and its strategy on the impeachment committee will matter to Ramaphosa. What is clear from newly minted DA leader Geordin Hill-Lewis’ statement is that Ramaphosa can expect no kid gloves.

“We respect the Constitutional Court, the Constitution, and the rule of law. This is a grave moment for Parliament, for the Presidency, and for SA’s constitutional democracy,” said Hill-Lewis.

“We will be guided by the facts, by the evidence placed before the committee, and by our constitutional duty. We will not prejudge the outcome. But nor will we allow any person, no matter how high their office, to be placed above accountability.

“Those who hold the highest offices in the land must be held to the highest standards of honesty, transparency and accountability,” said Hill-Lewis in the statement.

What will the ANC do?

This is the most important question. When the Constitutional Court in 2016 ruled that then president Jacob Zuma was in breach of the Constitution in relation to the Public Protector report on misspending at his home in Nkandla, the ANC made him apologise publicly. Then it backed him to stay on as president. That case was also brought by the EFF. Several leading members of the ANC, including the late Ahmed Kathrada, publicly called for Zuma to resign.

Three institutions, the Public Protector, the SA Revenue Service and the SA Reserve Bank, have found for Ramaphosa in investigations of Phala Phala, making the judgment the first adverse finding. Ramaphosa has just over a year left as ANC president and the party may well decide he should step down now because an impeachment inquiry could cost it dearly. All polls show the ANC is in decline, most notably in the metros.

ANC Deputy President Paul Mashatile is the lead candidate to take over, but he is far less popular than Ramaphosa and his appointment could hasten the ANC’s demise. If Mashatile becomes ANC president, he is likely to cement relations with the EFF and possibly want to reconfigure the GNU. ANC spokesperson Mahlengi Bhengu-Motsiri said the party would abide by the judgment and that it would be discussed at its national executive committee meeting.

What role has Action SA played?

Action SA has changed the game. The party used access to information laws to make the police investigating directorate, Ipid, release its report into Phala Phala. That report shows “off-book” investigations of the theft of money from the president’s Phala Phala farm by the police. The report will now probably also be used in the impeachment committee hearings. ActionSA’s Dereleen James will probably be placed on the committee, and she has been a bulldog on the ad hoc committee inquiry probing police criminality.

“Action SA celebrates the work of political parties that have not given up as one institution after another freed the president of accountability,” said spokesperson Michael Beaumont.

These are the big immediate questions facing SA after a judgment that should reshape political accountability in the long-term and see deep political changes in the short-term. DM