Embrose Papier of the Bulls breaks through Munster defence to score a try during a United Rugby Championship clash at Loftus Versfeld Stadium on 28 March 2026 in Pretoria. (Photo: Sydney Seshibedi/Gallo Images/Getty Images) The United Rugby Championship (URC) has to be one of the least predictable regional leagues in the game. Over the past four years, the tournament has produced four different champions hailing from three different countries.
The perennial joust for playoff positions has been particularly fierce and, even though the inter-hemisphere dynamic has posed significant travel and player welfare challenges, it has added to the sense of jeopardy in the latter stages of the fledgling tournament.
Top teams know that the chances of lifting the trophy decrease with every intercontinental flight taken over the course of the three-match playoff stage.
With this in mind, South Africa’s (SA’s) three title contenders should be gunning for maximum points in the final two rounds of the league phase in an attempt to mitigate – and possibly eliminate – the travel factor in the knockouts.
The Stormers (first in the standings), Lions (third) and Bulls (seventh) are still in the running for a home quarterfinal, whereas the Sharks (10th) recently bowed out of the playoff race.
The results of the coming URC matches – as well as the looming Challenge Cup final on 22 May and Champions Cup decider on 23 May – will determine where the teams finish on the log.
/file/attachments/2991/2272415379_630515.jpg "Leolin Zas of the Stormers rises high against Glasgow during a United Rugby Championship clash at DHL Stadium on 25 April, 2026 in Cape Town, South Africa. (Photo: Ashley Vlotman/Gallo Images/Getty Images)")
Stormers can clinch top spot
Last month, the Stormers were rocked by the untimely passing of long-time team manager Chippie Solomon and went on to lose 33-24 to Connacht at home.
At the time, coach John Dobson said the Stormers’ failure to claim so much as a losing bonus point had probably cost them a chance of topping the league. The following week, the Stormers thrashed Glasgow 48-12 and Leinster – who evidently had one eye on their subsequent Champions Cup semifinal against Toulon – lost to Benetton.
By the end of the round, the Stormers had moved into first place and their playoff destiny was in their own hands.
Opportunity knocks...
Fast-forward to the present, where the big question is whether they can make the opportunity count. Their first assignment sees them in Belfast on Friday night to face an Ulster team that is coming off a convincing 29-12 win against Exeter Chiefs in last weekend’s Challenge Cup semifinal.
The six-day turnaround may count against the home side, and a relatively fresh Stormers team stacked with Springboks should expect to claim four log points – at least – from this contest.
The Stormers may need to win both their tour fixtures to finish ahead of the likes of Glasgow (currently second) and Leinster (fourth). Their second match will be staged in Cardiff, where the hosts have made a habit of punishing complacent tourists – they beat Leinster 8-7 earlier this season.
Cardiff (sixth) are also pushing for a place in the playoffs, and the match against the Stormers may determine whether they make the cut or not.
The Stormers currently enjoy a one-point lead over Glasgow in the standings. Although they will prioritise victories in their next two games, a try-scoring bonus point or two will certainly aid them in their quest to top the table.
Smith targeting maximum points
Glasgow will host Cardiff this weekend before travelling to Ulster, and coach Franco Smith will be targeting maximum points from both fixtures. It’s possible that the Stormers will win their next two games without a bonus point (accumulating eight log points in the process) and Glasgow will rack up eight to 10 points across their fixtures.
If the URC’s two form teams win their next two games and finish the league with the same number of log points, the total number of wins will serve as the tie-breaker – and in that scenario, the Stormers (who currently have 12 wins) will have the edge over Glasgow (11).
At this stage, it seems unlikely that Leinster will finish in the top two, even if they win big against the Lions and Ospreys in Dublin over the next two weeks.
What’s more, coaches Jacques Nienaber and Leo Cullen are preparing the team to peak in the Champions Cup final against Bordeaux Bègles on 23 May, and may be reluctant to field full-strength teams in the preceding URC matches. Leinster won the URC last season, but they haven’t won the Champions Cup since 2018 – and it’s no secret that the latter is the priority for the Dublin club.
Lions’ window of opportunity
If the Leinster versus Lions fixture was scheduled in October – at a time when the Irish giants are typically at full strength and focused on the URC – nobody would give the visitors a chance. It’s also worth noting that – in spite of an improved overall league record that reads 10 wins in 16 games – the Lions have lost three and drawn one of their URC matches staged overseas.
Fortunately, Cash van Rooyen’s resurgent side will face Leinster at a time of the season when the URC and Champions Cup schedules collide – and when the leading teams are essentially punished for their success in the European tournaments and subjected to a relentless match schedule.
The recent battle against Toulon will have taken its toll on Leinster, whereas the Lions are coming off a bye. As a result, the visitors may be in a position to claim an upset that will boost their chances of hosting a playoff in Johannesburg.
/file/attachments/2991/2268286857_778205.jpg "Nico Steyn of the Lions on his way to the try line against the Dragons. (Photo by Gallo Images/Getty Images)")
Van Rooyen and company will know the franchise is on the verge of making the URC playoffs for the first time, and that a single log point from the tour to Ireland could be enough to earn them qualification for the knockouts and next season’s Champions Cup.
That said, one or two victories in Ireland may ensure that the Lions play a quarterfinal at home and, in spite of every pre-season expectation, become serious contenders for the URC title.
It’s a big ask, given the second tour fixture in Limerick may be even tougher. Munster have had their problems off the field this season and went through a period of losing eight out of 10 matches. But they’ve hit form in recent weeks with big wins against Benetton and Ulster, and will be desperate to qualify for the playoffs as well as next season’s Champions Cup.
Zebre Parma and Benetton are out of the URC playoff race, and they may lack motivation on the two-match tour to SA. By contrast, the Bulls should be out to secure 10 log points in the games against the Italian clubs and to boost their chances of playing one or two knockout games in Pretoria. DM
Jon Cardinelli is a freelance writer.
This story first appeared in our weekly DM168 newspaper, available countrywide for R35.
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