The leader of Tanzania’s main opposition party Chadema, Tundu Lissu, leaves the Kisutu Resident Magistrates’ Court in a Tanzanian Prisons Service vehicle in Dar es Salam on 19 May 2025. Lissu was charged with the alleged publication of false information online and another charge related to treason, which could carry the death sentence. He is alleged to have called on Tanzanians to rebel and disrupt the country’s presidential and parliamentary elections. (Photo: EPA / Anthony Siame) /file/dailymaverick/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/label-Op-Ed.jpg)
Democracy is on the retreat in Africa and around the world.
After the heady 1990s, during which democracy flourished in the wake of the end of the Cold War, we have seen two decades of democratic regression.
According to Freedom House, which has tracked the health of democracy since 1972, by 2026 Africa had experienced 13 consecutive years of decline in democracy, with a rise in military coups, non-competitive elections, restrictions on civic space and weakened democratic institutions. In continental southern Africa, only South Africa, Malawi, Namibia, Botswana and Lesotho are considered “free”, with Mozambique and Zambia “partly free”. The remainder, including key states such as Angola, Zimbabwe, Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of Congo, are all in the “not free” category.
A total of 54 countries worldwide experienced regression in their political rights and civil liberties during 2025. Against this, 35 countries registered improvements. Guinea-Bissau, Tanzania, Burkina Faso, Madagascar and El Salvador had the largest score declines, while Syria, Sri Lanka, Bolivia and Gabon recorded the largest gains. Three countries – Bolivia, Fiji and Malawi – improved from “partly free” to “free” status thanks to competitive elections, growing judicial independence and the strengthening of the rule of law.
Of the 210 countries and territories surveyed, “not free” countries increased in 2025 to 59 – up from 45 in 2005 – primarily at the expense of “partly free” nations. The share of “free” countries remains stable at about 45% worldwide, but is at less than 20% across Africa.
Repression in Tanzania
Tanzania suffered an election abomination in October 2025. President Samia Suluhu Hassan of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) was declared the winner with an unbelievable 98% of the vote as thousands of protesters were killed by security forces.
Unsurprisingly, Tanzania’s political freedom score is 28/100, just above Zimbabwe (25) and below autocratic Uganda (33). Tanzania has, in the past two years, suffered a significant decline in freedoms, including forced disappearances of political activists, police brutality against protesters and the disenfranchisement of Maasai communities.
The 2025 election continued this trend of rising repression, intimidation and severe constraints on political opposition and civic space with the banning of the opposition Chadema movement and the imprisonment of its leader, Tundu Lissu, on treason charges.
The election was widely condemned by international and regional observers as failing to meet democratic norms and standards, including those who routinely step out in support of African elections, no matter the quality.
The Thabo Mbeki Foundation said: “Following the succession of negative events that led to the tragic loss of life, the Election Observer Missions (EOMs) of our regional and continental organisations, [the Southern African Development Community, SADC] and the AU, have made distressing determinations regarding the conduct of the election.
“Collectively,” read its statement, “the EOMs concluded that the General Election fell short of the Principles and Guidelines Governing Democratic Elections of both SADC and the AU, as well as international standards. As the SADC EOM stated, the Tanzanian voters were unable to freely express their democratic will.
“Consequently, both the SADC and AU observers assert that the Presidential and Parliamentary results announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) are not a true reflection of the will of the Tanzanian people.
“This leads to the deeply troubling conclusion that the United Republic of Tanzania currently lacks a legitimate government,” the foundation concludes, “suggesting instead that the current administration has been imposed upon the people through a combination of force and fraudulent means. This situation is exacerbated by persistent, disturbing reports of systematic violence against opponents of the CCM, including abductions and murders.”
/file/dailymaverick/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Tanzanian-opposition-stalwart-Tundu-Lissu-waves-to-supporters-u.jpg "Tanzanian opposition stalwart Tundu Lissu waves to supporters upon his return on 25 January 2023, after five years in exile. Photo: Ericky Boniphace/AFP")
Lissu remains in prison, where he has languished for more than a year. Chadema’s senior party officials are prevented from international travel.
The Commonwealth, led by its envoy, the former president of Malawi, Lazarus Chakwera, was able to secure an appointment to see Lissu this week. It has taken the Commonwealth months to act despite its constitutional commitment to safeguard democracy and ensure shared values.
At the meeting, Lissu unapologetically articulated his terms to normalise politics in Tanzania.
First, given that the treason case facing him arises from his stance of “No Reforms, No Election”, all cases against him and against the party should be withdrawn. He is willing to engage in dialogue only as a free person, and together with his party.
Second, all incidents that occurred in October 2025 should be subjected to an independent investigation through an international body, such as the SADC.
Of the related need, third, for an enabling environment for genuine dialogue, as well as a firm commitment to implement its outcomes.
Fourth, there is in place a system of institutional accountability for the events of October 2025. He has emphasised the importance of revisiting the Nyalali Commission Report of 1991, on which Tanzania’s move from a single-party to a multiparty system was based.
Lissu, who survived an assassination attempt in September 2017 during a parliamentary session break, in which he was shot 16 times by an AK-47-wielding assailant in Dodoma, said that there is a need for reform within the security and defence sector based on the 2023 Chande Commission Report, which suggested ways of strengthening Tanzania’s criminal justice system.
Lissu has argued, sixth, for a comprehensive reform of the electoral system, including the dissolution of the Independent National Electoral Commission and the establishment of a new independent body.
And, finally, all of this has to be encompassed within a new constitutional arrangement.
To enable dialogue to solve the current impasse, not only would Lissu have to be released, but party members would also have to be permitted to travel.
Leading, whatever the personal cost
Similar democratic challenges exist across the southern Africa region in the other “not free” countries led by former liberation movements. In Zimbabwe, civil society is resisting the president’s attempts to change the constitution outside of a referendum. If this is allowed, it would not only extend his term of office, but also remove his direct election by citizens and thus his accountability.
In Angola, with elections scheduled for the end of 2027, the opposition is working to undo the stranglehold on power that the ruling People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) has enjoyed since independence in 1975. Despite its domination of the media and use of public resources, which makes a mockery of free and fair elections, Unita came close to winning the 2022 election, apparently too close for the MPLA’s liking.
The Commonwealth’s intervention in Tanzania will be applauded if it can walk the talk of its own obligations, in so doing establishing a rationale for its perpetuation and usefulness to its citizens and not just its political personalities.
Its charter explicitly affirms that “the special strength of the Commonwealth lies in the combination of our diversity and our shared inheritance in language, culture and the rule of law; and bound together by shared history and tradition; by respect for all states and peoples; by shared values and principles and by concern for the vulnerable.”
More specifically, it states: “We recognise the inalienable right of individuals to participate in democratic processes, in particular through free and fair elections in shaping the society in which they live. Governments, political parties and civil society are responsible for upholding and promoting democratic culture and practices and are accountable to the public in this regard. Parliaments and representative local governments and other forms of local governance are essential elements in the exercise of democratic governance.”
But its gentle powers of persuasion do little to impress those under the cosh of African authoritarians, who abduct, kill and beat at night and dine with foreign dignitaries by day.
Like other international organisations, the Commonwealth is compromised by its inclusive genuflection at any cost, its membership as a consequence becoming less notable than notorious. Without the spine to speak out and act accordingly, such interventions risk becoming no more than lipstick on the pig, effectively diplomatic protection for incumbents.
Until that happens, African democrats will have to keep fighting.
They will have to own their struggles and lead, whatever the personal cost, as the plight of Tundu Lissu and many others illustrates.
As for the authoritarian regimes themselves, they would do well to remember that strong people allow competition. Only the weak fear it. DM
Khama is the former president of Botswana. Biti is the former finance minister of Zimbabwe and a leader of the Constitution Defence Forum. Mills is at the University of Navarra. All are members of the Platform for African Democrats.