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Analysis

APRIL BY-ELECTIONS

Easy ward win puts ANC on firm Eastern Cape footing in run-up to local government elections

The ANC retained a ward with a convincing victory in national chairperson Gwede Mantashe’s home municipality of Sakhisizwe in the Chris Hani district in the Eastern Cape. This reinforces recent Eastern Cape results beyond the Sarah Baartman district and Nelson Mandela Bay and suggests that the party is electorally well on track in most municipalities in the province in a local government election year.

Wayne Sussman
by-elections ANC ANC supporters gather during the party’s municipal elections campaign in Meadowlands, Soweto, on 25 October 2021. (Photo: Gallo Images / Sharon Seretlo)

Ward 9 (Mbenge Lower Lufuta) Sakhisizwe, Chris Hani: ANC 84% (80% PR) EFF 9% (6% PR) ATM 6% (2% PR)

The setting: Ward 9 is a sparsely populated rural ward that encompasses numerous villages. There are 11 voting stations in the ward, but only one, the Mbenge School district, has a sizable number of registered voters. Ward 9 is south of Cala and southwest of Khowa (formerly Elliot). Sakhisizwe is the home municipality of former Springbok prop Os du Randt.

The 2021 local government election: The ANC won by a big landslide on the proportional representation (PR) ballot. It was the only party to get into double percentage figures, winning more than 80% of the PR vote in seven of the 11 districts and more than 90% in two. The party did best at eSigangeni where it won 96%.

The ANC only won 60% on the ward ballot. An independent candidate came second with 30%. Due to the independent candidate not running in the by-election, the PR ballot is deemed a better indicator of comparative support.

The ANC won all nine wards in Sakhisizwe, taking 13 of the 17 council seats. The DA is the official opposition with two seats, while the EFF and the African Transformation Movement (ATM) have one each.

The 2024 provincial election: The ANC amassed an impressive 86% of the vote. This was the ward in which the party performed best in Sakhisizwe in 2024. The EFF was a distant second with 5%. The ATM finished just behind the United Democratic Movement (UDM) with 2%.

The by-election: Thembalakhe Tasana, the Ward 9 councillor, went missing, and his body was found hanging from a tree.

The ANC beat the second-placed EFF by 1,161 votes, winning all 11 voting districts and scooping more than 90% of the vote in six. Its best return was 97% in both the Lower Lufuta School and the Mbeula School districts.

The EFF beat the ATM by 44 votes for second place. It won more than 10% of the vote in three districts, managing 36% in the Hota Primary School district. The ATM was only able to get more than 5% in one district, bagging 23% in the Mbenge Primary School district.

Poll: 47% (59%)

The next round of by-elections will be on 22 April when the DA will defend two historically safe seats in the Saldanha Bay municipality on the West Coast of the Western Cape. DM

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