A citizen casts their vote during the general elections in Soweto on 29 May 2024. (Photo: EPA / Kim Ludbrook) /file/dailymaverick/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/label-analysis-2.jpg)
Ward 104 (Dunoon) Cape Town: ANC 47% (65% PR*) EFF 29% (19% PR) DA 16% (8% PR) SACP 4% ATM 3% (3% PR) OHM <1% TRUTH 0
The setting: Dunoon is a township next to the Killarney Raceway and Killarney Gardens. It is east of the suburb of Parklands and northeast of Table View. It lies next to the N7 national road which links Cape Town with Malmesbury.
The 2021 local government elections: The ANC won here by a landslide, falling just short of the two-thirds mark on the proportional representation (PR) ballot. It won more than 60% of the PR vote in all eight voting districts. The party did best at the Dunoon Primary School district where it won 71% support. The EFF was second and was the only other party to get into double percentage figures. It obtained more than 20% of the vote on the PR ballot in five voting districts. Its best return was at the Abolomezi Centre district in Killarney Gardens.
The DA was third, finishing behind the EFF in all eight districts. It won more than 10% in one district, Sophakama Primary School, taking 14%.
The 2024 provincial elections: The ANC was first again with 62% of the vote when considering all the voting districts that make up this ward. The EFF was second with 17% and the DA third with 9%. The ANC beat the EFF in every district, while the EFF trounced the DA in every district. The African Transformation Movement (ATM) finished one percentage point ahead of the uMkhonto Wesizwe party (MKP) with 3%.
The by-election: The ANC ward councillor was recalled by her party after losing the confidence of ANC members in the ward and a campaign for her removal by ANC alliance partner, the South African National Civic Organization (Sanco). The South African Communist Party (SACP) decided to test the metropolitan by-election waters. The leader of the Truth and Solidarity Movement (TRUTH), Mehmet Vefa Dag, stood as the candidate for his party in Dunoon.
The ANC retained Ward 104 by 898 votes. It swept all eight voting districts, but was only able to win more than 50% in two. It did best at the Zusakhe Creche voting district with a 60% return.
The EFF came close to winning 30% in a Cape Town ward. It will be most satisfied with this showing. The party won more than 30% in three districts, with a 41% haul at Inkwenkwezi High School being its top result in the ward.
The DA doubled its vote share for a credible third-place finish. It came close to winning 800 votes in Dunoon, falling four votes short of that mark. It won more than 20% in two districts, with a 22% return at Dunoon Primary School being its best result. The SACP was a distant fourth, ahead of the ATM. It was unable to replicate its strong showing in a rural Eastern Cape by-election last week but will know that 4% in a Cape Town seat is better than 1% in a string of rural Limpopo by-elections. Despite TRUTH fielding its party leader as the candidate, the party finished last with zero votes.
Poll: 27% (39%).
Ward 5 (Bridgton Smartie Town) Oudtshoorn: PA 44% (12%) ANC 34% (22%) Icosa 21% (20%) GOCA <1% TRUTH <1%
The setting: Ward 5 is east of the Oudtshoorn town centre, between the town and Bongalethu township. It abuts the N12 national road which links Oudtshoorn with the small town of De Rust. South African cricketer and death-over specialist Ottniel Baartman hails from Bridgton.
The 2021 local government elections: The ANC beat the DA here by 29 votes. It was a very close race between the ANC, the DA (21%) and the Independent Civic Organisation of South Africa (Icosa). Icosa was 41 votes behind the ANC. The PA came fourth with 12% while local party Suid-Kaap Staan was fifth with a credible 6%.
The ANC, DA and Icosa won a voting district each. Icosa won the most-populous district, Sonskynhoekie Creche, with 30%. The ANC was second with 19%, the DA third with 17% and the PA fourth with 12%.
The DA won the least-populated voting district of Bridgton Senior Secondary School with 41%. A local party came second with 18%, while the ANC was third with 10%, the PA fourth with 9% and Icosa fifth with 6%.
The ANC won the Smartie Town Creche voting district, the second-most-populous voting district, with 34%. The DA was second with 18%, the PA third with 13% and the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) fourth with 10%. Icosa only managed 6% of the vote here.
The 2024 provincial election: The PA was the most popular party here with 40% support when factoring in the ward’s voting districts. The DA was second again with, this time with 30% and ANC came in third with 21%.
The by-election: The ward councillor, Abraham Tiemie, defected from the ANC to the PA. He did not stand as the PA candidate in the by-election. The DA and Suid-Kaap Saamstaan did not contest the by-election. The local Greater Oudtshoorn Civic Association (GOCA) was on the ballot.
The PA took its second ward off the ANC in Oudtshoorn since 2021 by beating the party by 206 votes. It won all three voting districts, doing best at Bridgton Secondary School, the least-populated district in the ward, winning an impressive 75%. The unique part of this specific result is that turnout in this district was 19% to 21% lower than in the rest of the ward. The PA usually cranks up the turnout in its strongholds. A likely reason for the low turnout was the DA’s absence from the ballot since this was where it did best in 2021.
Sonskynhoekie Creche was the most competitive district where the PA obtained 37%, the ANC 34% and Icosa 28%. The PA beat the ANC by 47 votes in this district. Icosa came first in this district in 2021.
The PA beat the ANC by 21 votes in the Smartie Town Creche voting district, which was won by the ANC in 2021.
Despite the ANC losing the ward, it increased its percentage vote share because of the more concise ballot. Nine parties won a council seat in the 25-seat Oudtshoorn council in 2021. The PA and the ANC got more of the Bridgton vote pie in the by-election. Icosa will be disappointed that its support hardly grew in a by-election with a smaller field of candidates.
With this seat loss for the ANC, the DA is now the largest party in the council with seven seats. The ANC fell to six. The PA is now tied with the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) as the third-largest party in the council with three seats each. Icosa has two and four other parties have one each.
The PA finished eighth in Oudtshoorn in 2021. It won 800 total ward votes across all 13 Oudtshoorn wards in that year. It has now won two wards off the ANC in Oudtshoorn since then. In Ward 5 yesterday, it won 970 votes, 170 more than its total ward vote count in 2021.
Poll: 51% (45%).
The next by-election will be on 15 April when the ANC defends a very safe seat in Sakhisizwe, Gwede Mantashe’s home municipality in the Chris Hani district of the Eastern Cape. DM
* The proportional representation (PR) ballot is used as the mode of comparison when it is a better indicator of a party’s support in the ward. An independent candidate ran here in 2021 on the ward ballot. That candidate did not contest the by-election.