Finally, signs of an ANC electoral strategy

The Gauteng metros have provided relentless bad news for the ANC over the past few months.

The party’s mayor in Ekurhuleni, Nkosindiphile Xhakaza, is trying to gag News24 from reporting that he was on the scene during a murder. In Tshwane, the party’s deputy mayor, Eugene Modise, has been found to have benefited from city tenders (while the Madlanga Commission has heard testimony implicating the EFF and Action SA). In Joburg, service delivery failures follow one another as night follows day.

All of this has given the impression that the party is completely frozen and unable to respond.

The only other story to remove this from the headlines has been the revelations from the Madlanga Commission, hardly an advertisement for the governance of the ANC.

But, finally, there are signs of some strategy.

In search of a mayor

At the News24 On the Record Summit last week, Ramaphosa said: “We should have a strong mayor in Johannesburg, and by the way, Dada Morero is still the mayor in Johannesburg and there is no change there.” He went on to say: “We want stability in Johannesburg until the election happens, we want progress.”

Up until this point the Joburg region of the ANC has appeared to be consumed with removing Morero, and appointing their leader, Loyiso Masuku, in his place. This would make sense for the region, since they would be able to retain power until the polls and ensure their leader is the symbol of the party.

However, Ramaphosa’s comments may indicate that another strategy is at play. As previously discussed, considering the nature of the problems in Joburg and the stature of the DA’s Helen Zille, the party needs a heavy hitter as its candidate.

Preferably someone with a track record of success, and who is not tainted by the problems of the city (and its ANC region). And someone who can argue publicly against Zille.

It has previously been suggested on these pages that one person who fits that bill is Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa. He is an effective (and relentless) communicator and would no doubt be portrayed as the person who “ended load shedding”.

Strangely, the Joburg election might also be decided by the city’s middle classes. There is much evidence that people who used to vote for the ANC may not turn out this time around. They might also believe there is no candidate for them.

Much of Zille’s campaign is aimed at ensuring their middle-class base turns out for the DA. An ideal ANC candidate would be able to counter this within this constituency.

There are other possibilities.

Frank Chikane has a long track record as an anti-apartheid leader and has played important roles in government (including in the Presidency during the Mbeki era).

Crucially, he is a son of Soweto, someone who will bring a constituency (and a church where he has preached for many years) to the party.

However, there are also drawbacks. Interestingly, he is the same age as Zille (75). More importantly, Zille would no doubt portray him as the person responsible for the complete and utter failure of the ANC to curtail corruption within its ranks.

Chikane chairs the ANC’s Integrity Commission. Despite making big promises just three years ago the party simply has not changed. His failure to make any impact was probably revealed by voters in the 2024 elections.

Considering the importance of corruption in this local election campaign, the ANC could also prevail on someone known to stand against it, perhaps Mcebisi Jonas (who famously turned down a huge amount of money and the position of finance minister when it was offered to him by the Guptas).

It is not certain whether Jonas would have the fire in his belly to give up his current position as chairperson of MTN to rejoin a messy political fight. And while he does have a stellar reputation against corruption, it is not certain that there is a natural constituency for him in Joburg.

But this strategy might have a deeper purpose.

It would make electoral sense for the party to retain Morero and let him be associated with all of the current failures. Meanwhile, in the background, it could work furiously on efforts to fix various problems. Then, at the right moment, Morero would be removed, a national candidate installed and, within a month or so, be able to claim “quick wins” that had in fact been prepared in advance.

This would associate that person with success in Joburg and explain why Morero is still there.

The old playbook

There are other signs of the ANC’s possible electoral strategy.

On Saturday (Human Rights Day), it arranged a “People’s March in Defence of our Sovereignty and Democratic Gains”. Events were planned in several different cities.

The party says this was in the spirit of the Freedom Charter, and was also a response to the efforts of “narrow interests that stand opposed to transformation and that seek to preserve historical privilege”.

This might indicate that the party plans to campaign on national issues during these polls, rather than local ones. By reminding voters of its history, of our “democratic gains”, it is trying to give them a reason to stay loyal to the ANC.

There is a long track record of this strategy, as long ago as the Saturday before the 2011 local elections, when then ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema told the party’s rally at FNB Stadium in Soweto that “the DA is for whites, the ANC is for you”.

Also, the idea that these events are about protecting our “national sovereignty” is a clear reference to the Trump administration.

Considering Donald Trump’s racist rhetoric, his continued efforts to stop people from Africa coming into the US and the way in which he treated Ramaphosa in the Oval Office, this is likely to gain traction for the party.

To oversimplify complex politics, it seems obvious that there are votes to be won by showing black voters that you are the party that can stand up to Trump.

This manoeuvre is also the ANC doing what liberation movements do in a situation like this; they wrap themselves in the national flag and use subtext to make the claim that they “made South Africa”.

All of this might well occupy media time and shift the national narrative from the relentless flood of stories about local government service delivery failures. Of course, that doesn’t mean it will work.

Zille has been intent on making the election in Joburg about water, which the ANC clearly cannot fix quickly. And, as Tony Leon claimed last week: “I think a donkey on a stick could defeat the ANC in Joburg.”

It is likely that he is correct. It would take a huge national effort from the ANC to retain power in Joburg now (even through a coalition).

But that does not mean they’re not going to try. If only so that they can accuse Leon of arrogance, if they do prevail. DM