Dominant wins for DA, IFP, ANC in Joburg, KZN and Limpopo wards

Gauteng

Ward 102 (Bryanston Bordeaux), City of Johannesburg: DA 95% (94%) ANC 3% (3%) ACP 1% MKP 1% TRUTH <1%

The setting: The colossal Ward 102 occupies much of the Randburg part of Johannesburg and includes the well-heeled suburb of Bryanston. St Stithians College falls in this ward, which also includes Bordeaux, Fontainebleau, Blairgowrie and Lyme Park. There are more than 20,000 registered voters in this ward.

The 2023 by-election: The DA romped home with 98% of the vote in Bryanston, and obtained 97% in Blairgowrie and Lyme Park (St Stithians).

Bordeaux was where the ANC performed best, managing 12%. The DA won 82% in this suburb. Turnout was lowest in the ward in Bordeaux, with only 10% of registered voters showing up.

The 2024 provincial elections: The DA swept all five districts and won 60% of the vote. It battled the most in the most-populous district, Bordeaux Primary School. The party obtained 34% in Bordeaux. It won fewer votes here than any other district in the ward, and did best in Blairgowrie, taking 73%. St Stithians Girls College in Lyme Park was where the DA did second best, with a 72% return.

The EFF came second in the ward with 11%. This was built on the party’s 911 votes in Bordeaux where it came second with 24%. The ANC was third with 8%.

ActionSA came fourth with 6%. Its 8% haul in Bordeaux was its best showing in the ward. Rise Mzansi, the uMkhonto Wesizwe (MKP) party and Build One South Africa all garnered 3% support.

The by-election: The DA ward councillor resigned after threats and intimidation against her from construction mafias. The EFF and ActionSA sat out this by-election.

The DA retained the ward by a landslide. It finished 3,345 votes ahead of the second-placed ANC. The DA won 99% of the vote in Bryanston and 97% in Blairgowrie and St Stithians Girls College in Lyme Park.

Only 7% of Bordeaux voters turned up, continuing the low turnout trend in this vote-rich area. The DA won 75% of the vote here, with the ANC second on 15%. This was a slight improvement for the ANC compared with the last by-election where it obtained 12%.

The new councillor is currently serving as a proportional representation (PR) councillor. This means the DA will now have a PR council seat vacancy. It will be interesting to see whether its mayoral candidate, Helen Zille, will fill this vacancy.

Poll: 18% (17%)

KwaZulu-Natal

Ward 17 (Bangumuzi Mjiza) Nongoma, Zululand: IFP 59% (41%) MKP 15% NFP 12% (45%) ANC 9% (13%) NAPF 3% EFF 2% (1%)

The setting: Ward 17 is a rural ward comprising numerous villages which sit above and beneath the regional R618 road which links Vryheid with Nongoma. Ward 17 borders both the AbaQulusi (Vryheid) and uPhongolo (Pongola) municipalities. Most of the voters reside in Bangumuzi and Mjiza. Nongoma is known for its many royal palaces linked to the Zulu monarch and forms part of the Zululand district. The seat of power in Zululand is Ulundi.

The 2022 by-election: The NFP beat the IFP by 87 votes. The NFP won three of the five voting districts in the ward, doing best at the Magenqeza Primary School district in Bangumuzi with 56%, building an 81-vote buffer. It also carried the most vote-rich district in the ward, Mthonbowesizwe High School in KwaMajomela, where it beat the IFP by 55 votes.

The IFP won two of the five districts, taking the second-most-populous one, Qhoqhoza Primary School in Mjiza, with 52%. It beat the NFP by 78 votes here. The ANC did best at Mthonbowesizwe High School in KwaMajomela with 26%, and finished third in all five districts.

The 2024 provincial elections: The IFP was the largest party when one considers the districts that make up Ward 17. It won 43% of the vote and swept all five voting districts. MKP was second with 25% of the vote. The NFP only finished third with a 17% return, while the ANC was fourth on 8%. The EFF received 2%.

The by-election: The ward councillor resigned after dissatisfaction with the NFP party leadership’s decision-making. The IFP easily won this ward off the NFP. It beat the next-best-placed party, MKP, by 992 votes. The IFP won all five voting districts. It did best at Qhoqhoza Primary School in Mjiza, bagging 75%. In addition to this strong showing the party won more than 60% in two other districts.

MKP came second in the ward but was off its 2024 mark of 25%. It did best at the Mthonbowesizwe High School district in KwaMajomela, winning 26%. The party beat the NFP by 79 votes.

It was a very disappointing night for the NFP which only managed second place in two of the five voting districts, with a 18% return at Magenqeza School in Bangumuzi being its best result in the ward. The ANC continues to battle in Nongoma. It finished 81 votes behind the NFP. Its best voting district result was also at Magenqeza School (14%).

The win for the IFP means we are back to the same council composition after the 2021 local government elections. The party now has 21 (20) seats, while the NFP fell to 13 (14). Other parties on the council are the ANC with eight seats, the EFF with two and the National People’s Front (NAPF) on one. There are 45 seats on the council.

Poll: 49% (51%)

Limpopo

Ward 34 (Badimong Monywaneng) Polokwane, Capricorn: ANC 72% (81%) EFF 21% (14%) Ind-Ramohlola 5% SACP 2% OHM <1% TRUTH <1% UDM <1%

The setting: Ward 34 is east of the Polokwane city centre, on the R71 regional road which links Polokwane with Moria and Haenertsburg. Most voters live in Badimong and Monywaneng. Badimong is a few kilometres from the Zionist Christian Church’s headquarters in Moria. Polokwane is the most-populous municipality in Limpopo.

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC won more than 80% of the vote in this ward. The EFF was the only other party to register respectable levels of support in this ward. The lowest return for the ANC was 77%. It won more than 80% in three of the seven districts. Its best showing was 91% at Rakopi Primary School in Segwasi. The EFF obtained 18% in two districts – Badimong Primary School and Nkoshilo High School – also in Badimong.

The 2024 provincial elections: The ANC won 77% of the vote in the districts making up this ward. The EFF was second with 15%. They were the only parties to get into double percentage figures. The DA was a distant third on 4%.

The by-election: The ward councillor died. A crowded field, including the South African Communist Party (SACP), gathered to take on the ANC.

The ANC eased to victory here, beating the EFF by 1,709 votes. The ANC won all seven voting districts. It did the best again at Rakopi Primary School in Segwasi where it won 80% of the vote. The ANC won 75% or more in four other districts.

The EFF was able to make some inroads in this ANC stronghold. Its best result was 30% at Sehlomola Primary in Ga-Mamphaka. The independent candidate, Stephen Ramohlola, came third with 5%. He won more than 10% in two of the seven districts. He also beat the SACP by 84 votes. The SACP faltered again in a Limpopo by-election. All the party’s by-election forays in Limpopo have been tepid.

Poll: 39% (44%)

The next round of by-elections will be on 18 March when there will be three in the Zululand district in northern KwaZulu-Natal. All three are marginal seats, with one held by the ANC in AbaQulusi (Vryheid) and two by the NFP in Nongoma. There will also be three by-elections in the Eastern Cape. The ANC will want to flex some metro muscle in a ward that includes Kidd’s Beach in Buffalo City, while the party will have a tough task in Asherville and Aberdeen, in the Dr Beyers Naude municipality. It will be confident about a strong showing in a rural seat in the Winnie Madikizela-Mandela municipality in the Alfred Nzo district. DM