Enough kindling left to stoke gold’s fire throughout 2026

US President Donald Trump has spoken about a new “golden age” for his country. It is debatable whether this is happening, but 2025 was certainly the “year of gold” – and the chaos that the White House unleashed was a key reason for this state of affairs.

The precious metal’s record run last year was simply unprecedented and marks one of the most riveting chapters in the long history of gold. The numbers for 2025 have been crunched for the Gold Demand Trends report produced by the World Gold Council, and they are eye-popping.

“Total gold demand in 2025, including OTC [over the counter, or direct trading between two parties], exceeded 5,000 tonnes for the first time,” the report says.

Combined with gold’s surging price, it added up to a historic value of $555-billion for the calendar year – equal to Thailand’s GDP and a 45% increase on the value generated in 2024.

Gold’s price hit 53 all-time highs over the course of 2025, an average of about one new record per week. And it reached memorable milestones: $3,000 an ounce in April and $4,000 an ounce in October, soaring more than 70% during 2025.

“Heightened investment activity drove overall demand growth: global gold ETF [exchange traded funds] holdings grew 801 tonnes – the second strongest year on record – while bar and coin buying accelerated to reach a 12-year high,” the World Gold Council’s report says.

Investment demand has been driven by gold’s status as a “safe haven” asset in times of turmoil, uncertainty and escalating geopolitical tensions. Trump’s scattershot tariffs, attacks on the Fed, the standoff with Iran, the US military actions in Venezuela and the calls to acquire Greenland – they’re all manna from heaven for gold bulls.

Indeed, the gold bull herd includes the US far right and Trump’s Maga movement, who regard the precious metal in an almost mystical light. It is from such quarters that one hears calls for a return to the gold standard – part of their yearning for a mythical past gold age.

And in defiance of the usual laws of market gravity, gold’s rocket run and equities markets have surged in tandem – a rarity that speaks to the historic nature of gold’s performance in 2025.

Central bank demand remained robust by historical standards in 2025, but has fallen from its peaks, declining 21% in 2025 compared with 2024. A key driver on this front has been emerging market central bank purchases of gold to reduce dependence on the US greenback.

Although central bank buying is predicted to remain strong in 2026, the decline may suggest that gold’s price is starting to weigh on demand – a factor that has not doused investment enthusiasm.

“Looking to the year ahead, with continued geopolitical tensions, we expect another year of strong gold ETF inflows and robust bar and coin demand, underpinned by elevated central bank buying,” the WGC’s report says.

Gold’s golden age is far from over, even if the price did decline sharply in late January from its latest record peak of more than $5,600 an ounce. It is surely telling that the $5,000 an ounce milestone was breached early this year.

Analysts at JPMorganChase – not known for hyperbole – recently said in a research note that gold could reach between $8,000 and $8,500 an ounce by the end of this decade if investors shifted their asset allocations and raised their exposure to the precious metal to 4.6% from 3.0%.

This bullish take is mirrored by other institutions. Deutsche Bank and Société Générale have projected $6,000 an ounce this year, and gold has already flirted near such levels.

With the clouds of geopolitical and economic uncertainty still swirling, there is more than enough kindling to keep the gold price blazing in 2026. Expect more records to be broken in what should be another historic year for the commodity. DM

This story first appeared in our weekly DM168 newspaper, available countrywide for R35.