DA edges PA, ANC in Western Cape ward polls, ActionSA delivers more scares in Gauteng

Western Cape

Ward 4 (Graafwater Eland’s Bay) Cederberg, West Coast: DA 35% (18%) PA 34% (21%) ANC 22% (31%) NCC 7% Cederberg Eerste 2% (23%) TRUTH <1%

The setting: Ward 4 covers the small town of Graafwater, the surfing village of Eland’s Bay and the farming area of Sandberg, well known for its Sandveld potatoes. Most of the voters in Ward 4 cast their ballots in Graafwater.

The main towns in Cederberg are Citrusdal and Clanwilliam.

The 2021 local government election: The ANC beat the local Cederberg Eerste (CE) party by 230 votes. Four parties were in the running, with the PA beating the DA to third place. Three different parties won one of the three voting districts. The ANC won in Eland’s Bay, the second-most populous district. CE struggled here, finishing fourth, 243 votes behind the ANC. The CE’s poor showing in Eland’s Bay cost it dearly. The PA came second in Eland’s Bay with 29% and the DA was third with 24%.

CE came first in Graafwater, beating the ANC by 29 votes. CE won a third of the vote here, with the ANC hot on its heels with 31%. The PA was third with 17% and the DA fourth on 10%.

The DA won 44% of the vote in the sparsely populated Sandberg farm district. The ANC was second with 20% and the PA third again, with 15%. CE ended in fourth spot with 14%.

The 2024 provincial elections: The DA moved from fourth to first place in this ward on the provincial ballot with a 43% return. The PA was runner-up with 28%, the ANC third with 23% and the FF+ fourth with 3%.

The DA won all three voting districts, finishing 347 votes ahead of the PA. The PA came second in Graafwater where its showing helped the party hold off the ANC.

The by-election: ANC ward councillor Paul Strauss defected to the DA. The National Coloured Congress (NCC) ventured beyond Cape Town to test the West Coast waters.

The ANC governs in Cederberg with CE where it has six of the 11 council seats.

Incumbent councillor Paul Strauss retained his seat under the DA banner by a mere 29 votes as the party moved from fourth to first place in this competitive seat. The PA ran the DA very close here and fell just short.

Graafwater was instrumental in the DA’s win. The DA built up a 93-vote buffer here against the PA. It went from 10% to 44% in this district, with the PA also moving up from 17% to 38%. The ANC fell from 31% to 13% and the CE’s support collapsed from 32% to 3%.

The ANC did well in Eland’s Bay, receiving 44% of the vote, up from 36% in 2021. The PA fell slightly from 29% to 26%, the DA dipped in Eland’s Bay from 24% to 17%. The NCC came fourth with 12%. Turnout in Eland’s Bay was 57%, higher than the ward average of 54%.

The DA finished first in Sandberg but fell from 44% to 32%. The PA doubled its support in this district, going from 15% to 31%. The NCC was third with an impressive 25%. The ANC lost more than half of its support in Sandberg, dropping from 20% to 8%, while CE struggled too, falling from 14% to 4%.

The PA had very good gains in Graafwater and Sandberg. The party might not have won the seat, but the result in this by-election suggests it is on track to gain numerous seats in Cederberg after the next election. Eland’s Bay was an outlier for the ANC as the party lost significant ground in Graafwater and Sandberg. The NCC showed it can be competitive in elections beyond Cape Town. The party will eye a seat on this council in the local elections. CE’s support cratered in this by-election, and risks being wiped out in the local elections. It needs to show up much better in future Cederberg elections.

The CE/ANC coalition has now lost its majority in the council. The DA is tied with the CE as the largest party in the council as both have four seats. The ANC falls from two seats to one. The PA and FF+ are on one seat each on the 11-seat council. This means the PA is the kingmaker and will determine whether the CE and ANC continue to run Cederberg with it, or bring down the government and work with the DA and the FF+.

Poll: 54% (61%)

Ward 4 (Bonnievale Happy Valley) Langeberg, Cape Winelands: DA 40% (28%) ANC 37% (47%) PA 23% (21%) TRUTH <1%

The setting: Happy Valley is just north of Bonnievale. Bonnievale is known for its stone fruit and its grape growing and wine producers. It forms part of the Langeberg municipality. The seat of power Langeberg is Robertson. Bonnievale and Happy Valley sit on the R317 regional road which links Robertson with Stormsvlei and the N2 national road.

The 2024 provincial election: The ANC was first with 32%. The PA made a big statement with a 30% haul, finishing ahead of the DA on 29%.

The October 2025 by-election: Veteran politician JJ Januarie, a former Independent Democrats (ID) mayor and ANC councillor, defected to the PA. He was also chosen as the PA’s candidate for the by-election. The FF+ sat out the by-election. The former FF+ candidate from 2021, Daniel Baadjies, was chosen as the ANC candidate for the by-election.

The ANC beat the DA by 465 votes to retain the ward and register an impressive victory for the party in the Cape Winelands. The FF+ candidate took a good chunk of the FF+ voters from 2021 along with him to the ANC. The ANC would have also won over some 2024 PA voters in this by-election.

The DA finished second. It was a few percentage points down from 2021 but essentially mirrored its 2024 showing. While the PA’s gains are stratospheric compared with 2021, the party declined from 2024.

The 2026 by-election: A few months after being elected as ward councillor for the ANC, Baadjies defected to the DA. The ANC was hoping to win this seat for the third time in five years.

The DA went into the by-election in a coalition with the People’s Democratic Movement (PDM) and the Langeberg Independent Party (LIP).

Daniel Baadjies retained the seat, this time for the DA. He beat his former party, the ANC, by 94 votes. The ANC declined by 10% points in this ward. The PA grew slightly to continue its upward trajectory in the Cape Winelands.

The DA now has 11 of the 23 council seats. It could choose to ditch one of its coalition partners since it only needs the support of one additional councillor to keep control of Langeberg. Both the PDM and LIP have one seat. The ANC falls from six seats to five.

Poll: 55% (60%)

Gauteng

Ward 2 (Rietvallei Ext 1) Mogale City, West Rand: ANC 57% (73%) ActionSA 29% DA 7% (6%) MK 6% PAC <1% (<1%)

The setting: Ward 2 is on the edge of Soweto and the City of Johannesburg municipal boundary. It is south of the Krugersdorp town centre and also south of Kagiso township. It is east of Randfontein. Setswana is the most-spoken language in the ward, but many residents also speak isiZulu and isiXhosa.

Krugersdorp is the seat of power in Mogale City, the most-populous municipality on the West Rand.

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC routed its opponents in this ward, winning close to three-quarters of the vote. The EFF came second with 16%. The ANC did best at the Thuthukezani Primary School voting district where it won 77%. The EFF had the most appeal at the Community Hall district, taking 18%.

The 2024 provincial election: The ANC won 60% of the vote in the districts making up this ward. The uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party was runner-up with 12%, just ahead of the EFF on 11%. The DA was fourth with 7%, followed by ActionSA with 2%.

The by-election: The ANC ward councillor was expelled by the MEC for cooperative governance and traditional affairs for non-attendance of council meetings and dereliction of duty. The EFF did not contest this by-election.

The ANC (31 seats) is in a coalition in Mogale City with the EFF which has 11 seats. The 42-seat coalition has a comfortable majority in the 77-seat council.

The ANC beat ActionSA by 440 votes in the by-election. The ANC lost significant ground at the Rietvallei Community Hall voting district, falling from 68% to 45%. ActionSA ran the ANC close here with an impressive 38% return. The DA was third with a credible 11% in this district.

The ANC performed better in the Thuthukezani Primary School voting district, obtaining 66% support, down 11% from its 2021 showing. ActionSA was second with 22% and MK third in this district with 8%.

ActionSA will be delighted with its strong performance, as it continues to make its mark in townships across Gauteng. In late November 2025, the party won 16% in another West Rand ward, in Khutsong in the Merafong municipality. The ANC knows it has to claw back support in wards such as Rietvallei in the local government elections to remain the largest party in Mogale City.

Poll: 38% (40%)

The next round of by-elections will be on 11 February when the IFP will need to fend off both MK and the ANC in uMzumbe in southern KwaZulu-Natal and the DA will go head-to-head with the PA for the third time in 2025 in George in the Western Cape. DM